Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[DavidB.]

This is the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNQvGj8qWTg

[DavidB.]

Alternative medicine? Wtf?

[DavidB.]

Problematic that support for mass surveillance is surging (but not surprising, of course). Given the experiences in Paris, where quite some terrorists were already "known" by the intelligence services, it would probably be better if screening would become "deeper", of people who are already being suspected, rather than "broader".

I'd answer No, No, No, and Yes. The first question I was also asked in a Dutch poll. It is a strange question. Could a terrorist attack happen in the Netherlands (or Austria)? Don't know, probably... Do I fear it? No, because it doesn't make sense. I also don't fear a car accident, even if it could happen.

[DavidB.]

Also, I got the new "Economist" today in which they had a page or two about Far-Right parties in Europe and their rise (article is called "Europe's little Trumps" or something) and they managed not to mention the FPÖ even a single time (which is polling at 33% right now).

So glad my country is represented in that article Lol.

[DavidB.]

Didn't know these academic titles were also used so often in Austria (I did know it for Germany, of course). I assume it enhances the perception of a political sphere in which "the ordinary man" is not represented.

[DavidB.]

Question. So there are people who want to abolish the presidency. Who, according to them, should then be the Head of State? The Prime Minister?

[DavidB.]

Ah sorry, hadn't seen that. Interesting proposal. If this directly elected "superchancellor" would have to be the head of the government as well, it would effectively become much harder for the FPÖ to ever lead a government. Not such a smart idea from an electoral perspective.

[DavidB.]

I guess the FPÖ's proposal means that the SuperChancellor is elected only with a simply majority without a runoff. If there's no runoff, Strache as leading candidate for SC would do extremely well - he could easily win against Faymann or Mitterlehner (just look at the polls). Of course, if there's a runoff he'd end up like the LePens in Round 2 of the regionals recently ...

You're entirely right, I'd assumed this would imply a runoff, but that's of course not necessary.

[DavidB.]

Would that really make it harder to form a government with the FPÖ, or is it just symbolical?

[DavidB.]

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

Wow. You know I don't particularly like the FPÖ, but that is blatantly undemocratic.

[DavidB.]

Well, another argument for the Dutch monarchy

[DavidB.]

Undemocratic like the US and France?

The US has a presidential system, France has a semi-presidential system. In Austria, however, the president is the merely symbolical head of state. Therefore, the president interfering in politics in an overly ideological manner can be considered illegitimate. Seems rather obvious to me...

[DavidB.]

However, if that happens, that's because he would have a majority of the votes in the 2nd round, while openly endorsing and running on that position.

That is of course true. Still, for an Austrian president it would be out of the ordinary to do this, but you're right: one could argue that this would be legitimate (with which I still don't agree, but I see the argument).

[DavidB.]

Good. But I thought this was about any coalition with Strache, not just a coalition in which Strache is Chancellor... is that right?

[DavidB.]

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

But do Van der Bellen and Griss refuse to swear in any coalition with the FPÖ, or only a coalition in which Strache would be chancellor?

[DavidB.]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

[DavidB.]

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

Thanks, interesting information!

[DavidB.]

This Gudenus guy is some real piece of work, jesus. You refer to him as some kind of a "Strache clone", but isn't Gudenus more than a tad more extreme than Strache?

[DavidB.]

I keep getting disappointed by parties of the new right, it seems. Ugh.

Cute pic, btw

[DavidB.]

This election seems to provide a rare insight into the future of national politics in all of Europe, increasingly becoming a race between the loony left, in casu VdB, and the racist right, in casu the Dolfuß apologetics and gay bashers. An unbecoming experience for me, who loathes both political camps, but then again, Austrian politics has always been a cesspool. The least problematic candidates seem to be Griss and the SPÖ apparatchik. I'd be likely to vote for the latter.

[DavidB.]

I'm not really sure what you mean by "the loony left" in this case. Bobos/Austrian Guardianistas? Yes, they are certainly a significant part of VdB's support, though they alone aren't getting him to 30% in polls. Student lefties, tankies and actual communists? No, because they make up about 6% of the Austrian electorate at most.

No, I was talking about the ideology of the candidates rather than their electorate. In no Western country do actual far-leftists, complete with the intersectionality shebang, make up a sizeable proportion of the population, and certainly not in Austria. To be fair, it would be a mischaracterization to say Van der Bellen is such a far leftist, but at the same time he is all about the "Refugees Welcome" campaign, which, I think, is detrimental to Austria -- and one could have known that before Bataclan and Cologne.

I am afraid that in, say, fifteen years, politics in Western Europe will be dominated by two camps: the anti free-speech, anti-Western, progressive, intersectional far left on the one hand, more similar to what's happening on US campuses than to European Green parties, and by the racist "alt-right" in its newest reincarnation on the other hand, ideologically more similar to movements like "Generation Identity" and 4chan-/pol/ than to, say, the Danish People's Party. Both are horrible, and the FPÖ's right (i.e. Gudenus) provides an excellent insight in how this will look like.

Might I ask why? Stenzel seems a very good fit for you, being far closer to the PVV-type of hard right politicians. Judeo-Christian values and such. And what do you mind about Griss? Her fake anti-establishment thing?

In short: because I am extremely skeptical of the FPÖ.

First of all, I am not a big supporter of the PVV. I voted for them only once, in a second-order election, and while it is true that their "brand" of new-right politics ("Judeo-Christian values and such", and their pro-LGBT views) is certainly something I theoretically appreciate, I think they have gone a bit too far. I felt uncomfortable with "fewer Moroccans", which I consider racist: for me, this is about culture and values, not about people. It is safe to say that the PVV is to my right on issues like immigration and Islam. I will not be voting for them next year.

It is safe to say that the FPÖ is far more right-wing than the PVV. I despise their apologetic view on Austria's nazi past and on Dolfuß. I don't like their offensive advertorials and I particularly don't like Strache's antics, "buying three beers" and stuff like that. Moreover, Dutch nationalism is almost always anti-nazi, and no one in the PVV thinks the German occupation was something good. Austrian nationalism, on the other hand, is often pro-nazi, and the FPÖ is rather open about it. Stenzel might say different things, but it remains to be seen whether that difference is only based on rhetoric, and given the fact that she is in the FPÖ and not in the PVV, I am skeptical. Her being halachically Jewish also doesn't do anything for me.

So in this case, I prefer the "devil I know", which is to say, the next uninspiring, bland, unpopular, inoffensive SPÖ apparatchik. I don't like Griss's stance on swearing in an FPÖ chancellor (I think it should be up to the voters who takes the lead in forming a coalition) and I think the SPÖ guy will likely be capable, at least at not making things worse.

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

In that respect, the Netherlands and Austria are obviously in a fairly similar position. I'd very much prefer Denmark-style bloc politics to become a thing in the Netherlands, because our coalitions are generally as "unideological" and compromise-driven as the monstruous SPÖVP coalitions. However, that takes responsible parties to become successful. Danish parties are responsible. But the FPÖ isn't DF and the ÖVP isn't V. The Danish political camps include the best of both worlds. Austrian political camps would include the worst of both worlds, and they would both radicalize over time. That is not a good perspective. But I understand very well that someone on the Austrian left would prefer bloc politics to the current situation. Still, I think Austrian parties might be useless and Austrian politicians might be boring as hell, but policy-wise, this coalition is not too bad (don't let Tender hear this).

[DavidB.]

Hofer likes to talk about environmental issues? As in: they don't matter?

I'll reply to aross later 

[DavidB.]

Well, that's one way of putting it. More specifically, he is concerned by Chemtrails, having asked several parliamentary questions and spoken at length about them. Of course, given that pseudoscience is seemingly widely accepted among Austrians (cf. for example Tender's poll on page 1 which has 60% trusting alternative medicine), this is unlikely to pose a major problem for him.

Lol. That's mindbogglingly stupid. I already had a feeling that his environmental concerns were not related to pollution or deforestation. Is he a climate change denier as well?

[DavidB.]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

[DavidB.]

My liberal, bobo family members in Vienna's 6th district will vote for VdB; my uncle and aunt who left Vienna for Burgenland will probably vote for Hofer. Very typical.