Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[aross]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

[aross]

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

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...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

I've always taken "FPÖ-Regierung" to mean a government led by the FPÖ. I certainly, for example, wouldn't refer to the current Government of Burgenland (an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition) as a "FPÖ-Regierung" in German.

To put what Van der Bellen said in context, here's the question he was asked in the interview. (conducted by one of Austria's most respected interviewers and journalists, Armin Wolf.)

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His remarks were thus once again in the context of a FPÖ-led government.

[aross]

True. "FPÖ-government" usually means a government with the FPÖ as senior partner.

But it's more the way he talked about the FPÖ in general during the interview I posted: He said that he would not swear in the party FPÖ right now because of how they are basically destroying the EU and it's values ("Eine Partei wie die FPÖ sende derzeit alle Signale dafür aus, dass man die Europäische Union eher zerstören als weiterentwickeln wolle, weswegen sie in Van der Bellens Augen das Vertrauen des Bundespräsidenten nicht verdient habe."), which further means that he is like 99.9% certain not to swear in A) the FPÖ as senior coalition partner incl. a Chancellor Strache as well as B) the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition let's say with the ÖVP leading it.

I'm really not sure what you are basing this on. I'm pretty sure you could get Hundstorfer saying similar things about the FPÖ, and yet we accept his statement - that he would appoint a FPÖ-led government - at face value. Why shouldn't this apply in VdB's case?
Also, as I said - Austrian Presidents are often all bark and no bite.

I do have to say that this whole saga is rather dampening my enthusiasm for Van der Bellen. Subverting democracy (and that's what it would be - for all the talk about alternate mandates, Austria is in practice a purely parliamentary democracy) really isn't on. I guess it will be another least-worst-option vote for the Greens rather than a genuinely happy one.


On a completely different note - I can't see why on earth Strache wouldn't want to run. It's perfect for him: a campaign determined only by personalities and the refugee crisis as the main issue. It doesn't matter if he loses (and he will lose, but that isn't the point) - if he wanted an aura of invincibility, he wouldn't have run mayor of Vienna twice. Additionally, last time, running the far-out Rosenkranz damaged the party's momentum rather badly. I suspect running a no-namer like Moser would have similar effects.

Indeed, that last poll you linked to had a "Scenario 2" (can't post links - 25 VdB, 21 Strache, 20 Griss, 16 Khol, 13 Hundstorfer, 5 Lugner). So Strache gets into the runoff, garners even more attention and piles onto the momentum for 2018. What's not to like?

Well, another argument for the Dutch monarchy

Bring back the Habsburgs?   

Thank you for making me appreciate the Austrian Presidency again. Given the views of various family members on the Opfermythos, Franco, Dollfuss and the US Government (locked in a dispute between the Jew-controlled Department of Defense and black-dominated State Department, apparently), occasionally combined with rabid Eurofederalism, that would be truly mad.

[aross]

   Would it be fair to say that Gudenus's father is a holocaust denier if he acknowledges the existence of gas chambers in German occupied Poland?  I thought that the camps on German soil like Dachau, Bergen Belsen, Ravensbruck, Buchenwald etc didn't have them.

Mauthausen definitely had one, as did Dachau. (Though the controversy over whether the latter one was ever actually used is a favourite among holocaust deniers). I'm not sure whether they were installed at every camp though.

[aross]

Such a charming (though fortunately not yet quite correct) cross section of Austrian society being presented here...

Now, news:
Stenzel isn't actually confirmed as the FPÖ candidate yet. Supposedly, this is part of the process that has been going on quietly inside the FPÖ for some time, with Strache trying to purge the old, hardcore cadres that don't appeal to the public and replace them with his type of young populist. This is by no means a internal war or a power struggle though, just him occasionally removing people. It's difficult to see how it could become one, either, as criticising Strache is completely verboten. Anyway, so the FPÖ old guard oppose Stenzel because she's a defector and not right-wing enough. (This actually sounds a bit absurd, because in rhetoric, Stenzel is hard right - she talks about the red-green menace and attempts red scares, which just aren't a thing in Austria. However, her actual positions are reasonably moderate - compared to the FPÖ, that is.)

As a candidate, Stenzel certainly makes sense. I'd say she's the best of all those that have been suggested, excluding Strache. She has a profile of her own, isn't too closely associated with the FPÖ though still clearly their candidate and not just one endorsed by them, and, importantly, she can appeal to ÖVP voters. Her main problem will be her public appearance. She often comes across as snobbish, arrogant and prude. In her interview on the main news right after her defection to the FPÖ she was also off balance and slurred her words, to obvious conclusions.

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The annual Burschenschaftler (student fraternities, strongly associated with the far-right) Ball will take place on Friday, accompanied by the usual massive protests. Thankfully, the violent loony left seem to have been mostly excluded this year. (I guess I'll find out, as I intend to be there.) Actually, seeing how it taking place in the residence of the President is what most people object to, promising to stop that would make a great campaign promise. Haven't seen anything about it, though.

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Strongly recommended to any German speakers: (profil.at): andreas-khol-ich-rueckwaertsgewandter-6202043
An interview Khol gave a few days ago about the still polarised debate of Austrian history, particulary the Austrofascist Dictatorship founded by Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuß. I had forgotten about him being an apologist for pretty much all the nasty historical aspects of the Austrian right. Highlights include him claiming the Social Democrats wanted a dictatorship too (and using this to defend Dollfuß's goal of literally taking Austria back to the Middle Ages) and him repeating and affirming his statement about Dollfuß from 1996:

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[aross]

The FPÖ candidate will be announced at 1100 today, according to Strache. Supposedly, those opposed to Stenzel's Nomination got Norbert Hofer (Tender has talked about him before - he's 3rd President of the National Council and a complete political unknown, though powerful inside the FPÖ) to withdraw his refusal to stand on Wednesday. Strache is now actually facing heavy resistance from within his party, and it remains to be seen whether he has come out on top.

This election seems to provide a rare insight into the future of national politics in all of Europe, increasingly becoming a race between the loony left, in casu VdB, and the racist right, in casu the Dolfuß apologetics and gay bashers.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "the loony left" in this case. Bobos/Austrian Guardianistas? Yes, they are certainly a significant part of VdB's support, though they alone aren't getting him to 30% in polls. Student lefties, tankies and actual communists? No, because they make up about 6% of the Austrian electorate at most.

An unbecoming experience for me, who loathes both political camps

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

The least problematic candidates seem to be Griss and the SPÖ apparatchik. I'd be likely to vote for the latter.

Might I ask why? Stenzel seems a very good fit for you, being far closer to the PVV-type of hard right politicians. Judeo-Christian values and such. And what do you mind about Griss? Her fake anti-establishment thing?

[aross]

No, I was talking about the ideology of the candidates rather than their electorate. In no Western country do actual far-leftists, complete with the intersectionality shebang, make up a sizeable proportion of the population, and certainly not in Austria. To be fair, it would be a mischaracterization to say Van der Bellen is such a far leftist, but at the same time he is all about the "Refugees Welcome" campaign, which, I think, is detrimental to Austria -- and one could have known that before Bataclan and Cologne.

I am afraid that in, say, fifteen years, politics in Western Europe will be dominated by two camps: the anti free-speech, anti-Western, progressive, intersectional far left on the one hand, more similar to what's happening on US campuses than to European Green parties, and by the racist "alt-right" in its newest reincarnation on the other hand, ideologically more similar to movements like "Generation Identity" and 4chan-/pol/ than to, say, the Danish People's Party. Both are horrible, and the FPÖ's right (i.e. Gudenus) provides an excellent insight in how this will look like.

I see. I certainly agree that "Refugees Welcome" is rather silly - Peter Pilz, former Leader of the Greens (coincidentally one of my favourite Austrian politicians) put it rather well:

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Sure, I stood there at the station, handing out packages, but I get this is by no means a permanent solution. I don't think inviting third-world citizens here to be, in many cases, exploited for their labour while at the same time pushing down wages and jobs for the poor of Europe is a particularly left-wing idea, but whatever, I'm preaching to the converted here ^^.

I'm not sure I agree on this foreshadowing any sort of realignment, as this is still an election based on personal votes and anti-Grand Coalition sentiment and, as you say, VdB is not of the sort you find on US university campuses. (Though I certainly dislike - just like with the Greens in general - his Bobo-focused pitch, and, in particular his come-what-may pro-EU stance.) Fundamentally, surely a future "left" as you describe it - and I'm not sure it could be called that - would be nowhere near government in any European state, if present popular feeling is anything to go by. Even if you're suggesting everyone from the right-wing establishment to the left-wing working class will have gone over to this new right, I think we're still to power-hungry to simply let the right dominate.

In short: because I am extremely skeptical of the FPÖ.

First of all, I am not a big supporter of the PVV. I voted for them only once, in a second-order election, and while it is true that their "brand" of new-right politics ("Judeo-Christian values and such", and their pro-LGBT views) is certainly something I theoretically appreciate, I think they have gone a bit too far. I felt uncomfortable with "fewer Moroccans", which I consider racist: for me, this is about culture and values, not about people. It is safe to say that the PVV is to my right on issues like immigration and Islam. I will not be voting for them next year.

It is safe to say that the FPÖ is far more right-wing than the PVV. I despise their apologetic view on Austria's nazi past and on Dolfuß. I don't like their offensive advertorials and I particularly don't like Strache's antics, "buying three beers" and stuff like that. Moreover, Dutch nationalism is almost always anti-nazi, and no one in the PVV thinks the German occupation was something good. Austrian nationalism, on the other hand, is often pro-nazi, and the FPÖ is rather open about it. Stenzel might say different things, but it remains to be seen whether that difference is only based on rhetoric, and given the fact that she is in the FPÖ and not in the PVV, I am skeptical. Her being halachically Jewish also doesn't do anything for me.

So in this case, I prefer the "devil I know", which is to say, the next uninspiring, bland, unpopular, inoffensive SPÖ apparatchik. I don't like Griss's stance on swearing in an FPÖ chancellor (I think it should be up to the voters who takes the lead in forming a coalition) and I think the SPÖ guy will likely be capable, at least at not making things worse.

I'm sorry, "Judeo-Christian values and such" was a unfortunate way of phrasing it. It seems you got what I meant though - basically, the PVV before its present turn to the right. I would have said that Stenzel is very much not a FPÖ stooge with her own views (indeed, her massive ego is a big problem for her), but that is now irrelevant, as she is not the candidate, and Hofer is precisely that stooge.
Just for the record, the FPÖ are not Dolfuß apologists, after all, he locked their ancestors up. They mostly don't talk about him, but if asked, will say he was a terrible dictator, and, if cheekily-minded, slip in that he too had concentration camps and demand that Nazis be added to anymemorials for the resistance.

This is actually where I see a faint glimmer of hope: this election just might lead to increased polarisation between left and right (and within those camps, SPÖVP, who stage polarisation only to find a cushy, do-nothing settlement no longer being the leading force). Eventually we might see a realignment to Scandinavian-style bloc-based politics. (Wishful thinking, I know.) . Indeed, grand coalition politicians have in recent days repeatedly expressed a desire to prevent a 'camp-based election' (the horror...), precisely because they get this.

In that respect, the Netherlands and Austria are obviously in a fairly similar position. I'd very much prefer Denmark-style bloc politics to become a thing in the Netherlands, because our coalitions are generally as "unideological" and compromise-driven as the monstruous SPÖVP coalitions. However, that takes responsible parties to become successful. Danish parties are responsible. But the FPÖ isn't DF and the ÖVP isn't V. The Danish political camps include the best of both worlds. Austrian political camps would include the worst of both worlds, and they would both radicalize over time. That is not a good perspective. But I understand very well that someone on the Austrian left would prefer bloc politics to the current situation. Still, I think Austrian parties might be useless and Austrian politicians might be boring as hell, but policy-wise, this coalition is not too bad (don't let Tender hear this).

I would like to think that principle (giving people a clear choice of government rather than coalition-building with its tendency to distort the will of the voters - this is the British genes and political instinct talking, I think) plays a large role as well, but yes, the desire to see a genuine left-wing government is clearly a major part of this wish.

In general, I would say that bloc politics would likely force parties to become more responsible, as they would actually have to put into practice many of their promises and, in the case of SPÖ and ÖVP, learn to deal with being in opposition. Again, this is quite possibly largely wishful thinking.
"Not so bad" is a question of perspective. Nothing disastrous happens, because nothing happens, and if something does, it turns out to be nothing within a week of so. But of course, hardly any progress is made, which feeds into the FPÖ narrative of Austria falling behind over time.

[aross]

His preferred topics in parliament as an MP are environmental issues and standing up for people with disabilities.

Well, that's one way of putting it. More specifically, he is concerned by Chemtrails, having asked several parliamentary questions and spoken at length about them. Of course, given that pseudoscience is seemingly widely accepted among Austrians (cf. for example Tender's poll on page 1 which has 60% trusting alternative medicine), this is unlikely to pose a major problem for him.

I wonder how much of Hofer's low numbers are based on the fact that basically no-one has heard of him. I haven't seen a poll for awareness, but I do recall one which asked people to associate candidates with emotions such as trust and anger. Hofer polled last and in single figures for every single emotion.

[aross]

So let's say Van Der Bellen becomes president and FPÖ then becomes the largest party in the next general election and ÖVP agrees to enter into a coalition with them. How would that whole situation be handled, if VdB stands firm on his promise to not to swear in Strache as chancellor, how that crisis be handled? Is there a way for parliament to force the president to accept the majority's chancellor candidate, or would it cause new elections, or would the whole thing just end in a stalemate where it isn't possible to namne a new government?

The constitutional situation, just for the record: The President can appoint any person eligible to be elected to the National Council to the office of Chancellor, the Chancellor then nominates the ministers. He may dismiss the whole Government at any time, the dismissal of a single minister requires the consent of the Chancellor. (Article 70 Bundes-Verfassungsgesetz) When a government has resigned or been dismissed, but the President has not yet appointed a replacement, the previous Government forms the interim Government (Art. 71). The National Council may at any time express their lack of confidence in the government or individual ministers. Such a motion requires a quorum of half the members, but no qualified majority. All affected ministers must be dismissed by the President immediately (Art. 74).

The Federal Assembly (joint session of the National Council and the Federal Council, a upper house appointed by the states which tends to have the ÖVP in a slightly stronger position, but is usually irrelevant) may, if called upon by the National Council, by a majority of two-thirds of members present and voting with a quorum of half the members, call a national referendum over the retention of the President in office. (Note that this is not impeachment - no reasons need to be given.) The referendum is decided by simple majority. Should the President be retained in office, his term is extended to last a further 6 years (though the overall term limit of 12 years still applies) and the National Council is dissolved for new elections. (Art. 60(6))

The President may dissolve the National Council, but not twice for the same reason (lol). The National Council may also dissolve itself. (Art. 29)

The probable actual situation: Basically, I still think the by far most likely scenario is VdB backing down. He's trumpeted this position a lot less in the last few days, calling it "an essentially hypothetical question" (which is manifestly untrue, but whatever). We would probably see a situation like with Klestil in 1999, that is, negotiating behind the President's back and then confronting him with the completed deal. Likely, the solution would be the same - the government is appointed, the President makes his disapproval clear and a few of the most offensive ministers are excluded. If VdB actually stands firm and Strache wants to make a point, he might also try calling early elections. That two-thirds majority - even with the distorting effect of the Federal Council - is out of reach, however. Any possible coalition partners are unlikely to be forthcoming unless VdB goes nuts and tries to appoint a Greens-only government or something. So basically, then we have a stare-off which might well drag on a bit, but VdB is bound to lose as he's the one up against the wall and, well, pretty clearly in the wrong.

[aross]

Gallup/Österreich poll:
33% FPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+1)
22% SPÖ (0)
11% Greens (0)
7% NEOS (0)
4% Others (0)

Compared to here

First poll after all 5 major candidates have announced for President (Gallup, conducted yesterday):

you can clearly see the massive differences between the presidential contest and party standings. On Thursday, Gallup had the combined left candidates on 50%, whereas the leftist parties' support is only 33% (40% with the highly dubious inclusion of NEOS). So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

[aross]

Looks like both Hofer and Dracula Hundstorfer got an announcement bounce.

Hofer is relatively unknown (name recognition = 35%), so he probably has the biggest potential to grow and reach the runoff - especially because the migrant issue is going to dominate in the next months.

Griss is eating heavily into the ÖVP-vote, which means it's unlikely that Khol makes the runoff.

Griss and Van der Bellen are going to drop off significantly though in the coming months.

Currently, I'd say that Hofer will definitely get into the runoff and there's a tie between Van der Bellen and Hundstorfer for the 2nd runoff spot.

Griss's campaign has been a car crash for the past few weeks, she's in the absurd situation where not only is she running an anti-establishment campaign while quite clearly being of the establishment herself, but has also become precisely the spineless politican she is supposedly campaigning against. She hasn't even decided her position on the ever-recurring question of appointing a FPÖ-chancellor yet. Now she's come out against conscription and the government's upper limit for refugees, which suggests she's trying to get the left-liberal vote which is already colonised by Van der Bellen. Never mind she's doing this barely a month after practically begging for the FPÖ's endorsement. No idea what her niche is supposed to be at this stage. I think she will crash very soon and probably have to work hard not to go into single figures.

Khol's traditionalist conservatism secures him the ÖVP base's vote, but not really anything else much. He is hardly the most inspiring of speakers and extraordinarily old-fashioned in his manners and public appearance. His only potential is to his right, but FPÖ voters are hardly going to want to vote for what is, in essence, still a grand coalition candidate.

Hofer is difficult to predict because, as you say, he is still largely unknown (btw, could you post this poll that gives name recognition scores?). Again, though, he really isn't a particularly inspiring candidate and has absolutely nothing personal to campaign on. He has all of Strache's negatives with none of his charismatic positives. His success is dependent on the campaign being very party-focused and the asylum crisis getting worse. (Not hard to see the last one, admittedly.)

All of which has lead me to conclude just while writing this that a VdB-Hundstorfer runoff as envisaged by that poll really isn't as absurd as one at first might think, because, basically, none of the right-wing candidates are really any good. (Though Hofer is the best of a bad bunch.) Such a scenario requires: 1) a non-awful campaign from Hundstorfer, 2) the right to remain rather badly split, 3) the left-right balance to be no worse than, say 45-55.

Of course, this dearth of good candidates might also lead to a surge for someone yet to enter the race. A TV personality, say...



please send help

[aross]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

[aross]

Your analysis is absolutely great, aross. I hope you stick around here!

Thanks, I'm flattered!

So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB. (Anecdotally, this matches up - even a rather posh friend who wants to privatise hospitals and schools(!) says she will vote for him, although support for him will of course be higher here in Vienna.)

That has been my experience as well. Van der Bellen just has his own individual appeal for voters in the Bildungsbürger-spectrum ("educated bourgeoisie" seems not quite a right translation for that, and I can't think of any other, I'm afraid), which is not entirely a surprise given his background and public image. This seems to be not just a Vienna-phenomenon however, aross, even here in rural Tirol I've heard people say they would vote for VdB that I would have never imagined - this even with Khol as a Tyrolean as ÖVP-candidate.

Intellectual bourgeoisie, perhaps? Of course, most Viennese would insist such a thing does not exist in Tyrol
Doesn't Van der Bellen have some sort of connection with Tyrol? Is that noticeable?
EDIT: Yes, not only did he study there as I thought, but he in fact grew up in rural Tyrol.

I've got more of a problem with "bourgeoisie", as that entails that sort of wealthy big fat-cat capitalist image which the sort of people I wanted to describe not necessarily have.
Haha - I admit it's sometimes hard to find, but then again, if you look at certain areas of Vienna, even the most hick-ish place in the upper Paznaun or wherever seems like an intellectual paradise compared to that

Yes, VdB, as every Tyrolean Green will be more than eager to tell you, grew up here (in fact just half an hour from my home!); though he by now is perceived completely as a Viennese (which is however anyone that does not talk in our sacred tongue and whose ks do not leave his/her throats completely sore, so not unique to him ), which if anything has always a negative effect on popularity. I would guess his wider-than-usual popularity is a pretty even phenomenon everywhere, however, not really confined to Tirol as his youth home. We can however maybe expect an expenonential growth in Green support in municipalities like Faggen, Fendels or Kaunerberg, having him score three instead of the usual one percent there

I definitely can't talk, I recently read that my district of Vienna has the second highest percentage of people in the city (4th in the country, IIRC) with no education beyond compulsory.

I had a feeling that might be the case, he is, after all, about as metropolitan as it gets. (in Austria, at least )

Speaking of elections in rural Tyrol, I found this rather funny result in one of the smallest municipalities of Austria a while back: https://wahlen.tirol.gv.at/gemeinderatswahl_2010/gemeinden/hinterhornbach.html
Only one vote separates the ÖVP Hinterhornbach and the ÖVP "Together for Hinterhornbach"! Truly a close and fascinating race. Don't let anyone tell you all politicians are the same!

[aross]

Is it the tenth or the eleventh?

In regards to that Hinterhornbach result, I am actually quite amazed that the two candidates didn't share a last name
It's places like this that get as hick as possible as you can in Austria - the uppermost part of a side valley (Hornbachtal) of a side valley (Lechtal) of a remote part (Außerfern) of the most rural, hick state (Tirol) - kinda like the deepest Wyoming of Austria

It's the twentieth, actually - I was surprised, precisely because I thought those two could always be relied on to come last, but it seems Simmering has gone highbrow. Though the higher percentage of non-European immigrants (as opposed to the Yugoslavs in the tenth and eleventh, who often have further education) here will certainly have contributed.
Actually, in terms of "hickness", there are parts of Niederösterreich that strike me as far more advanced than (my impression of) isolated alpine valleys.

[aross]

Wow, I really didn't think of the twentieth. So Simmering has gone upwards in the last years, or is it Brigitennau (that's the 20th, right?) that's declined?

Ah yes, some frontier areas in the Waldviertel or the Südburgenland might dispute it for this title; but I guess remoteness and sheer distance has its role to play too, with that: when you're in Oberpullendorf or Gmünd or wherever, you're in Vienna or Graz in what, an hour? From Hinterhornbach, you'll be glad if you've reached Reutte (its BH) at that point

As I said, I think a large part of it is immigration (You can see in Tender's report that the 20. has the second-highest percentage of foreign-born residents, with only the 15. beating it out.) and, in particular, the nature of immigration (Brigittenau simply has by far the highest Turkish share of population in Vienna, which unfortunately correlates strongly with lack of further education.) But also, there are parts of Simmering district which are nothing like what you associate Simmering with. Brigittenau isn't so sprawling and thus doesn't really have any part that has been gentrified yet, expect perhaps right at the southern border.

I don't think hickness really has much to do with remoteness as long you have that mental sense of being in the middle of nowhere. (And some flat field in NÖ gives me that far more than standing among mountains.) More important is a closed sense of mind and an aversion to outsiders.

[aross]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.

Well, no they don't. The leader of the ÖVP in Vienna, who, even by that provincial section's standards, is an irrelevant no-namer, has announced his support for it in yet another desperate plea for attention. Shifting right is probably still the best option for the Vienna ÖVP (the voters lost to the Greens and the NEOS just aren't coming back, not to a party viewed as so toxic and pathetic and backward-looking as the Vienna ÖVP is), but I doubt it will stop their permanent decline.

[aross]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

They get a two-day extension (weekdays, ie till Tuesday) if they are nearly there. So they should probably both be fine.

[aross]

Looks like both Awadalla and Lugner are falling short by a few hundred signatures and they won't appear on the Presidential ballot ...

They get a two-day extension (weekdays, ie till Tuesday) if they are nearly there. So they should probably both be fine.

OTOH, Awadalla has now conceded she won't make it even with the extension. Shame, I sent her my signature just yesterday. (partly out of sympathy, partly so I have someone to vote for in case VdB and Hundstorfer become even less appealing, though Awadalla obviously shares some of their flaws and adds some of her own.) Lugner says he will soldier on.

Now, this is a surprise, except in a way it isn't. Robert Marschall, eurosceptic activist (http://www.marschall2016.at/), has submitted his nomination. It isn't a surprise in the sense that Marschall has a bit of a history of defying low expectations - for example, when standing in the European election two years ago for his own "EU Exit Party" (sounds no less clumsy in German), he got 2.76%, clearly top of the also-rans, despite basically never been mentioned in the media. (The BZÖ, having by then completed its transformation into a directionless death cult, amusingly finished last.) Again, his non-presence in the media (I have quite literally never heard his name on TV or radio) has been surprising and not really on given his by now proven relevance.

Marschall is also a bit of a internet personality, operating numerous websites on various, but mostly political topics, all in that precise same vaguely dated design his campaign website uses. The simple domain names he operates under (http://www.nationalratswahl.at/, http://www.bundespraesidentschaftswahl.at/, http://www.wahltermin.at/ and http://www.wahlbeteiligung.at/ - the last two are "election date" and "turnout") means he ends up right at the top of Google searches for those words. Large parts of these sites are often in fact simply mirrors of other sites of his. He also has somewhat of a obession with: The EU (obviously), politicians who didn't do national service, the "unfair and illegal" Austrian electoral system (threshold issue), genetic engineering, Austrian neutrality, phone radiation, the equally "unfair and illegal" public broadcasting fees, etc. etc., any of which he will a rant on at the slightest notice. Oh, and bizarre political predictions - the EU will collapse within the year (for the last 5 years) is a given, "new elections will be called soon because the government knows it isn't supported by a majority of Austrians any more" perhaps less so.

[aross]

Late, I know, but FWIW here is my (slightly pessimistic) prediction:
Hofer 27%
Griss 23%
VdB 22%
Hundstorfer 16%
Khol 10%
Lugner 2%

[aross]

The other bloc of votes that Hofer will go after will be Khol voters of course.

Which will be harder than it seems. There exists a decent section of right-wing (leaving aside the remaining moderates, who would never consider Hofer anyway) ÖVP voters - and they are loyal ÖVP voters, so they will be disproportionately represented among Khol voters - who think the FPÖ are dirty uncouth Plebeians with ideas above their station and would never vote for them. That doesn't mean they are prepared to vote for the left, of course - but if any candidate could convince them to do so, it would surely be Van der Bellen.

[aross]

Pretty much in line with Strache, who said: "Yes, there needs to be an upper cap: zero !"

Plus border fences, police and military at the border to screen the green border for illegals and stop lorries with potential illegals at the border crossings along the highways."

Yes, but the point is he would never put it like that. The FPÖ has discovered the wonders of dédiabolisation. Hofer also has an impressive ability to sound perfectly reasonable, even when he isn't actually being reasonable. (As some have pointed out, he has also received extensive rhetorical training, including NLP)

Thought a bit about the polling failure, which brought me back to this:

Gallup/Österreich poll:
33% FPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+1)
22% SPÖ (0)
11% Greens (0)
7% NEOS (0)
4% Others (0)

Compared to here

First poll after all 5 major candidates have announced for President (Gallup, conducted yesterday):

you can clearly see the massive differences between the presidential contest and party standings. On Thursday, Gallup had the combined left candidates on 50%, whereas the leftist parties' support is only 33% (40% with the highly dubious inclusion of NEOS). So basically, at least at present, large amounts of conservatives (and almost all NEOS supporters, though a few might go for Griss) are planning to vote for VdB.

This turned out to be complete bollocks. However, continuing the - admittedly flawed in an Austrian context - logic of blocs, if you look at what the FPÖ is currently polling at nationally - 32, 33% - it really isn't that far from what Hofer got, and could be explained by the unattractiveness of the other candidates combined with higher mobilisation among FPÖ voters. Similarly, the combined left got 33%, compared with ~37% in parliamentary polls. That difference would seem to roughly match the rate of defectors to Griss. And finally, the "bourgeois" or mainstream centre-right got 30% when it is scoring 29% in parliamentary polls. So there is an argument to be made that the pollsters aren't actually doing a bad job with their standard polling, but that they only somehow (the unknown quantities of the various candidates, I suppose) failed to transfer this to their presidential polling.

Finally, this is a good tool for predicting the runoff by estimating transfers.

[aross]

I decided to go to the parade in Vienna to see how the SPÖ were getting along.
The atmosphere wasn't actually as grim as I expected, and they still managed to fill the space quite well. However, Faymann was received extremely negatively - and not just from the usual troublemakers, ie the loony left and the party youth. He had barely spoken two sentences when he was completely drowned out by boos. I think what he did when they finally calmed down was skip over all the rest of his speech but the last paragraph... Anyway, he soon shuffled off stage. He was followed by Vienna Mayor Häupl (slipping in winks to everyone from the FPÖ appeasers to the refugees welcome crowd like the slimeball he is), Foglar, the president of the Trade Union Confederation (30 minutes of industrial productions stats - seriously. Shame, I've been quite impressed by him previously.), and Deputy Mayor Brauner (not actually that bad). All of them backed Faymann to the hilt.

Oh, and they still sing The Internationale at the end, that was nice. Also, Häupl looks like some kind of Soviet politburo member, the way he just stands there while they march past and waves to the crowd.

EDIT: They also all endorsed Van der Bellen.

[aross]

Today is a great day for Austria and, hopefully, the SPÖ.

Häupl is interim leader.

I assumed Tender had been posting about this, but it appears not. Basically, the likelihood of him resigning was seen to been growing till Friday, but Faymann was felt to have shored up his support - particularly among provincial leaders, the trade unionists had almost all deserted him - over the weekend and by this morning it was thought he could keep his job. He apparently genuinely surprised anyone by deciding to jump rather than be pushed at a later point.

I'm far too busy right now to write all I'd like to write about this, so I'll just leave this here: I think any "business" leader would be disaster. Firstly, because they wouldn't actually be businesspeople, but an apparatchik from the SPÖ's extensive empire who got a cushy job for services to the party - ie exactly the cronyism people resent the former main parties (party-cartels, as I recently saw them called) for. Secondly, not only have both the main contenders of that type (Kern and Zeiler) yet to demonstrate an ounce of political principle. but they would presumably essentially warmed-up "Faymannism" (ie ineffectual backward-looking opportunism) with a fresh face. Of course, the alternatives are hardly any better...

[aross]

Gallup/Östereich:

[aross]

It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

To be fair (and I am by no means a fan of Juncker), that sort of thoughtful pause is supposed to be a sort of "signature move" of his. It's part of his image as a thoughtful, philosophical man. Of course, this can backfire by appearing elitist and condescending. Generally, I think the fact that in Austria - unlike, say, Iceland or Ireland - 'intellectual' never really became a presidential archetype has harmed Van der Bellen. It's just not what people expect from a president.

(Also, I didn't catch that part of the debate, but I'm guessing VdB didn't suggest aiding tax evasion or completely cocking up the Euro crisis as some of those achievements?)