Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

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The new Gallup poll for Ö24 shows Hofer gaining (VdB and Griss also gained a point), while the government candidates and Lugner are losing ground.

Also interesting: Hofer is at almost 50% in a possible runoff with either VdB or Griss. This is something I have predicted before already.

52% VdB (Greens)
48% Hofer (FPÖ)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% VdB (Greens)

51% Griss (Indy)
49% Hofer (FPÖ)

...

Also:

"Would a FPÖ-President be good for Austria ?"

31% Yes
40% No
29% Undecided

"Would a Green President be good for Austria ?"

30% Yes
46% No
24% Undecided

The Green/FPO question is odd in comparison to the run off polling. I guess vdB is beyond his party.

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The final campaign event from Norbert Hofer (FPÖ) in Vienna had by far the biggest crowd of all candidates (about 6.000-8.000 people). All other candidates had less than 1.000 people --- but is crowd size an indicator of electoral success ?

He seems to have the momentum... Do you think he has been underpolled due to people nervous about admitting their support of a FPO candidate to a pollster?

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vdB is so blah..... I would not be surprised if he lost. If he does win, it wouldn't be because of any of his own attributes. Were there not any better candidates the non-FPO parties couldn't put up and support?

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Just be the 22nd already.

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The new Gallup poll for Ö24 (n=600, May 10-11) breaks it down into 3 groups:

Among all Austrians, Hofer leads VdB by 53-47.

Among the 70% who say they are voting in the election, it's a 50-50 tie.

And among those who say they are already 100% certain to vote for a candidate, VdB actually leads 51-49.

Which means the higher the turnout, the better for Hofer. If turnout drops to 60-65% because many SPÖ, ÖVP, Griss voters are sitting the runoff out, then VdB might actually have a chance to win this thing.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Hofburg-Wahl-Hofer-in-Fuehrung/235248837

How does those voter groups sitting out the runoff benefit vdB? Especially the Griss and SPO voters.

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I think that format is pretty good despite not understanding anything they were saying. vdB came off well from the clips I saw - especially when Hofer was getting even more red in the face. I think however the mood in Austria is against his candidacy, policies and reputation.

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It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

This is why I should have stuck with learning German.... Ouch. He is most definitely done. When you cannot defend one of the senior figures in the EU, an institution you align yourself to....

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It's over.

Painful to watch.

Hofer constantly tied VdB to Juncker and the EU and as having only the political elite on his side, while Hofer saw himself as an advocate of the Austrian voters.

VdB: "Juncker is a man who had great achievements in his life !"

Hofer: "And these great achievements are what exactly ?"

Long pause from VdB ...

To be fair (and I am by no means a fan of Juncker), that sort of thoughtful pause is supposed to be a sort of "signature move" of his. It's part of his image as a thoughtful, philosophical man. Of course, this can backfire by appearing elitist and condescending. Generally, I think the fact that in Austria - unlike, say, Iceland or Ireland - 'intellectual' never really became a presidential archetype has harmed Van der Bellen. It's just not what people expect from a president.

(Also, I didn't catch that part of the debate, but I'm guessing VdB didn't suggest aiding tax evasion or completely cocking up the Euro crisis as some of those achievements?)

Well to me, if someone in a debate asks you a question and you pause, that looks like you have been stumped.

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Even the BBC reports about the debate:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36304313

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I am sad for Austria. Not even vdB comes off good in that exchange. Hofer was just a child which is no surprise.

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I remember Tender saying that there was a similar demo done to stop the OVP in Vienna and it saw the SPO win. It is odd that people would be more motivated to protest a much more moderate right wing party to stop a win in a subnational election...

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Interesting at how pro-Israel Hofer is. The relationship to Israel truly is the divide of the far right IMO and it seems very controversial. Some of them are very anti-Israeli (a legacy of you know who and what) but you do see a very new pro-Israeli faction of far right politics.

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Yes it works. Thank goodness Austrian politicians don't care about copyright laws.

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Yes it works. Thank goodness Austrian politicians don't care about copyright laws.

During British general elections the BBC election coverage stream can actually be watched from abroad so it seams public networks in general aren't that squeamish about it when it comes to election coverage.

Really? I am surprised at that. They ask if you have a television license to watch their official online streams (even though lying is possible).

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LOL at the reporter from the Financial Times. His English accent shone through when speaking German. There is definitely a lot of international attention on this.

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What a noisy lot the FPO are. That exit poll is very close. I am still nervous. I am not taking anything for granted.

And that 56.8% in Vorarlberg is impressive for vdB.

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That was close! Danger has most definitely not been averted IMO. If voters perceive conditions to get worse, I can only imagine the parliamentary election in two years. It will not be pretty.

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I wish Irmgard made the run off..... Anyway, I don't know if I came off across as a FPO supporter but I really not. They are IMO even more destructive than the SPOVP union. They sort of follow the same disastrous policies that von Mises who I think was Dollfuss' economic advisor just before Anschluss; which led to severe deflation and sky-high unemployment. I just hope that the SPOVP establishment take domestic issues more seriously now.

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I love Austrian pollsters. They seem very in depth in what they poll. FPO should just except it and move on. vdB won it.

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Well it looks like we are entering unpredictable times. No one thought this would have happened.

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   Assuming some of those anti-Hofer stickers that Omega saw said "eat the rich" that would be ironic since Hofer would have won the first round of the election had it not been for the vote of the wealthy.  Also ironic is the fact that leftist groups are so strongly against the candidate who is so strongly supported by the blue collar working class. I guess its not the mid 20th century anymore.

I was literally just thinking that. It seems a lot of the ''radical left'' in Germany/Austria have a more positive view of the establishment (and the centre-left) in general. The pie in the face to Sahra Wagenkrecht by the Antifa activist was strange.

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WHY! Why does the polling have to be so tight? It seems that way with every two-way election/ref this year.

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I am much happier than last time vdB won. Not only is the mandate seemingly much bigger, but I think the establishment got the message that it needed to change. Getting rid of Faymann helped a lot as well.