Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[ApatheticAustrian]

atm i am pretty sure hofer is going to win, since beating him was only possible through creating a much more complicated alliance than hofer's one and december is going to decrease the turnout for sure. (on a second thought, the low turnout thing cuts both ways, since green supporters and conservative VDB voters are both known to vote fot sure.)

[ApatheticAustrian]

hofer is a young, attractive, well-bred and well-tested, soft-speaking candidate, practicing stuff like NLP very natural......

VDB on the other side is amazingly authentic too, imho and also possesses a great dry humour, even while he more often states unscripted stuff.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is only funny if you realize, that the FPO is the real "godless" party in austria.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't think many last-minute things can really influence a race which has run for over a year.

everyone's mind is settled, so it's all about turnout.

[ApatheticAustrian]

griss' endorsement was important in the first (second round) election.....don't know if her voters still are some kind of "bloc".

[ApatheticAustrian]

postal voters usually voted for the green and the conservative party.......and the voters of those parties are usually known to vote at a higher rate than those of the social democrats and the freedom party.

could mean anything but i got a bad feeling about a december election anyway.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think the SPÖ and ÖVP voters are going to decide this again.....the factions of the ÖVP are far more partisan this time and no one knows how motivated SPÖ voters are.

in fact...some urban SPÖ voters seem to have become greenish.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just want to point out once again for the non-austrian readers here that freedom party chief strache wanted to nominate a nut-job-lady instead of mister hofer .....who recently stated once again that mister van der bellen's parents were nazi collaborateurs.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't think the postal votes are going to be more pro-hofer.

but....maybe a bunch of postal voters is less inclined to vote this time....if upper austria and vienna holds for VdB he is going to be fine.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Any links to results  on Sunday ?

the website of the ministry of the interior is quite useful... (direct link to their presidential election 2016 center)

http://www.bmi.gv.at/cms/BMI_wahlen/bundespraes/bpw_2016/start.aspx


if hofer isn't ahead by more than 2 points on sunday, monday is going to be the big day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

   Oh, certainly early voting misreadings are quite common by everybody, but I would think anything indicating less electoral activity coming out of Vienna would most likely be good news for Hofer.

depends.

vienna is a giant pool of votes for VdB AND for mister hofer.

[ApatheticAustrian]

his quotes make the FPÖ quite nervous since hofer spent the campaign rejecting such allegations......party  operative and "brain" of the party herbert kickl criticized farage as clueless about FPÖ positioning and goals.

[ApatheticAustrian]

according to poll workers in my vienna precinct, turnout was just over 50% 90 minutes before closing....take it with some tons of salt.

[ApatheticAustrian]

god's own country...ah ah ah.

thank you people's party.

contrarians by heart.

[ApatheticAustrian]

So what exactly happened? Why did Hofer lose so badly?

maybe blaming for the repeated election...and we don't like too much change.

and once again...the polls were wrong.

[ApatheticAustrian]

interviews with party operatives.....green party leader glawischnig turned to hofer-voting ÖVP-executive secretary reinhard lopatka to thank him for the support of VdB-voting ÖVP-chief reinhold mitterlehner.

better than christmas.

[ApatheticAustrian]

liberal NEOs party chief: nigel farage's auxit projections killed hofer.

thanks nigel

[ApatheticAustrian]

fpö operatives blame artists, businessmen and other parties for supporting VdB...

what happened with "the voters are able to make their own decisions"?

[ApatheticAustrian]

once again hofer et al are blaming the people's party's chief mitterlehner for the loss.....unbelievable.

and....lower austria voted for vdb....like upper austria, tyrol, salzburg, vorarlberg and vienna.

old-school industry region styria is the only major federal state voting for hofer.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FPÖ entered government in 2000?

not a fair comparison cause of the EU sanctions.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nah....atm hrc and vdb are equal (more or less) but the absentee vote comes in tomorrow.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What a gender gap, according to an exit poll:

Men: Hofer 56%, Van Der Bellen 44%
Women: Van Der Bellen 62%, Hofer 38%

just what i would have guessed for hillary.

old eccentric men can win the female vote big league it seems.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Also, below the map there is something that says "Anzahl der Stimmen nach Wahlverhalten bei 1. Wahlgang (SORA)". What does this mean?

those seem to be the numbers from the first runoff in may.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Are available results with postal vote?

no...cause of all the.drama...final results could be published.as late as tomorrow.

[ApatheticAustrian]

How long before the far-right judges steal the election again?

fpö said they won't challenge it again.....

the judge thing was a one-time wonder.

each election of the last decades could have been challenged....usually the fpö woudn't have got something big from a repeat.