Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Mike88]

Poor ÖVP! Why did they lose so much of their voters to the FPÖ? Is it mainly because of the refugees crisis or there's something more deep?

[Mike88]

Hofer duelled himself with Barroso at a university in Geneva (Switzerland) yesterday:



The audience was a very unfair lot though (mostly students, who held up signs and constantly booed Hofer whenever he talked).

Then, at one point Barroso even called Hofer a Nazi who wants to re-establish WW2 concentration camps (instead, Hofer said he prefers camps in Northern Africa or in the migrants' African home countries, in which the migrants can file for asylum before doing so in Europe).

Cherne, cherne... oh my dear cherne. He always puts himself in akward situations.

[Mike88]

Hofer (FPÖ) congratulated Trump on his victory in the US presidential election and said he's confident that the (economic) ties between the two countries can be deepened. He also said that he won't change his campaign style and become more agressive because of the Trump-win, because his strength is that he's authentic.

VdB (Greens) said that the Trump win is a wake-up call for the runoff on Dec. 4 to put the respectful "living together" into the spotlight rather than divison. He also said: "The majority of Americans have elected Trump as their President. This has to be respected." (and while he didn't congratulate him for the win, he said he "wishes him the prudence and emotional awareness to fulfill the job.")

http://www.vienna.at/norbert-hofer-gratuliert-trump-zu-wahlsieg-van-der-bellen-sieht-weckruf/5004025

I actually think that this could help Vdb and wake up some Voters that are scared of the "austrian trump"..

Even though Trump makes Hofer look like a Leftie..

I think VdB now has a good chance to win (again), but that doesn't have to do with Trump's win.

I think Hofer has a mobilisation problem regarding his voters: I talked to many of my co-workers and (extended) family members, and not few of them voted for Hofer in the actual runoff. But the recent delay of the re-vote because of the glue-problems made many say that they are now not voting anymore on December 4, beause they are "sick and tired of all this sh*t" (their words).

VdB-voters (many of them consisting of Green Party, SPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS voters) usually tend to be more unimpressed by this and generally vote in higher numbers (FPÖ-voters are sometimes hard to mobilise).

Also: VdB is still extremely present with his poster campaign in my district. Every town now has at least 10-20 posters along the roads, whereas there were only a few before the initial runoff. VdB's team has increased his presence in the rural areas significantly. In Zell am See, I have spotted easily 50 campaign posters for VdB, but only about 10 or so for Hofer.

I might be totally wrong (like the Hillary-supporters), but his organisation looks pretty good this time.

I hope you' re right, Tender. Not a big fan of the Greens, but VdB is the most sensable choice.

[Mike88]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

[Mike88]

Interesting! Thought that only my country's Presidents could dissolve Parliament and fire the government if they thought was necessary. Did what we call "the atomic bomb", the dismissal of the government, ever happened in Austria?

To go a bit deeper: It has never happened so far, because every President used to be a traditional, non-interventionist President like it was outlined in the Constitution before the 1929 amendments (which upgraded the powers of the President on behalf of lobbying from the Christian-Socials. The Socialists still had a couple of checks and balances included in the amendments, so that the office of President wouldn't get too powerful). Since then, all Presidents only acted as notary to the parliament, mostly signing any law they passed. Nobody knows what powers a President Hofer could actually have as President. He could have much bigger powers if he wants to be a non-traditional more active President, but would probably be reigned in by the checks and balances system.

Very interesting Tender, thank you. Here in Portugal, the dismissal of the government was used only once and it was, and still is, very controversial. Perhaps a Hofer presidency will be very simillar to a normal presidency here in Portugal. Here, Presidents have the power, and very often use it, of vetoing laws, aproving or not ministers appointed by the PM and comment on the government performence. From what i've read from Hofer, he fits perfectly in what a normal role of President in Portugal is. For us this is normal, but for you guys it will probably be a bumpy presidency.

[Mike88]

Congrats Austria

PS: Once again the polls failed!

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

Interesting. So VdB fought really hard to ensure that he would have a strong postal vote even if he had a good voting day result. Hofer, on the other hand, got complacent and thought the tide was in his favour.

[Mike88]

Looking at the map, VdB numbers improved strongly in rural areas. Any reason for that? Perhaps OVP voters that switched from Hofer to VbB?

VdB had a much better poster coverage this time around.

Before the May runoff, Hofer had 10 times more posters around here than VdB - now it was virtually even.

Interesting. So VdB fought really hard to ensure that he would have a strong postal vote even if he had a good voting day result. Hofer, on the other hand, got complacent and thought the tide was in his favour.

It was more that VdB fought hard for the rural areas, while Hofer had not much further room left in the urban areas ...

Yes. The Hofer point i made, is because i think that after Trump's win the right wing in Europe thought they were unstoppable and they got cocky, especially in Austria after seeing the debates.

[Mike88]

Austria: The Colorado of EUrope !

So, you guys border the New Mexico of Europe, Portugal.