Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[peterthlee]

Bold Prediction on 4 Dec re-run-runoff
Nationwide (AT): Van der Bellen 53-47
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Burgenland (BL): Safe FPO-Solid, Hofer 58-42
Carinthia (KT): Safe FPO-Strong, Hofer 56-44
Styria (SR): Likely FPO, Hofer 53-47
Salzburg (SB): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 50.5-49.5
Lower Austria (NH): Tilt I, Van der Bellen 51-49
Upper Austria (OH): Likely I, Van der Bellen 54-46
Tyrol (TR): Safe I-Strong, Van der Bellen 57-43
Vorarlberg (VB): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 62-38
Vienna (WN): Safe I-Solid, Van der Bellen 67-33
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Contracted forms of states in brackets denote by what I'm going to call the 9 administrative regions.

[Last modified 161114 on self-assigned state codes]

[peterthlee]

4. Dezember 2016 - X - Alexander Van der Bellen! Glück auf Österreichisch!

[peterthlee]

don't think the postal votes are going to be more pro-hofer.

but....maybe a bunch of postal voters is less inclined to vote this time....if upper austria and vienna holds for VdB he is going to be fine.

Vienna is ultra-solid safe hold for VdB. Upper Austria is notable as it is a swing state.

[peterthlee]

It was such a great pleasure and surprise to me, that, luckily I nailed all states, plus nearly the national PV and states percentages such as SR, BL and NH.

[peterthlee]

Not familiar with Austrian politics, but I can tell you that from the past models, black-blue coalition is a meltdown. If the blue party did not capture more than half of National Council's seats (which is almost certain), the SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens (or the NEOs) would rally around Kern.
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It translates to 'The coalition of SPÖ-ÖVP-Green party of Austria promotes priority of asylum seekers! Only the FPÖ stresses "Austria First"!'
From this, we could deduce that any black-blue or red-blue coalitions are not viable options.
Blue party could only be in power if they secure an absolute parliamentary majority.