Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

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Burgenland

64 : 36  Hofer : VDB

pfffff.

It should have been left to Hungary.

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hoffer at 51.9% on official count.

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Another bullet dodged. No time for celebrating, but a sigh of relief can be breathed: for the moment.

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Another bullet dodged. No time for celebrating, but a sign of relief can be breathed: for the moment.

It says something about the state of Austria rn when a fascist winning "only" 49.7% of the vote is considered dodging the bullet.

I would take 49.7% for Hitler back in 1932 if the result were him staying out of the government forever.

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I have just realized one thing about Van der Bellen: he is, actually, an economist. I mean, I knew that, but when I first read it, I thought of somebody like Varoufakis. Actually, as a colleague today pointed out, this guy has done some serious work in his day. He is good.

The other interesting thing: he owes his name to a Turk In fact, his best three publications are all with the same Turkish guy (much more famous than VdB in the narrow circles). And, I bet, these are the publications that gave him credibility when he was moving to the academic bureacracy, from which he emerged as a politician. He has every ground for very strong Turkophilia

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But let's not "hijack" this thread too much anymore

In fact, will treat any continuation as an invitation to join in. And I am not smiling.

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But let's not "hijack" this thread too much anymore

In fact, will treat any continuation as an invitation to join in. And I am not smiling.

Hey ag! Do you like me being back? Did you take your sedatives today?

I am in full unmitigated rage, barely controlled by the need to grade term papers and yell at students caught cheating. Once I am done with making tall young guys and pretty girls crying in my office, I will be in top shape. Take your precautions.

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Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

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Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

If you were talking about Eastern European Christians, you were right.

I am even equally scared of the Wessies.

That old Armenian guy, who, on his deathbed, told his children to take care of the Jews, was a wise man.

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This thread is getting horrible. Keep it on topic or it'll be locked until people cool down and the random trolls go back to their caves.

Can we discuss VdB's research papers here? Would it be on topic? I am still shocked nobody paid attention to the Turkish angle in his bio

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  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.

Father of Russian Dutch background!

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   Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think.  

Estonia had been annexed, and both parents had Estonian citizenship, I believe. So, in fact, they were "Soviet" "citizens".

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  In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

Great parts of town to stay if you visit Vienna   I chose in Josephstadt when I went to Vienna, actually

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Any data on voters with a Yugoslavian background?

Serbs: 99.99999999% Hofer

Seriously though, Serbs probably voted 65+% for Hofer.

A lot of Serbs are Blue collar workers, almost all I know who are living in Austria are.


Plus we Serbs had a bad time with Islamisation (15-20 Century) so many don't like the rapid Islamisation of Austria. (Christians drifting away from religion, a bit like me, while Muslims only grow in numbers)

For example in Germany this is the new Kinder Chocolate box (not that I mind these children's faces on the box, but I think the Natives should always be the largest people group, which in a 100 years is not looking likely.):

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/25/99057850_Packages_of_a_popular_chocolate_bar_with_childhood_pictures_of_German_national_soccer_playe-large_trans++eo_i_u9APj8RuoebjoAHt0k9u7HhRJvuo-ZLenGRumA.jpg

I'm just using this to give an example of the changes in the population.

Wonder if there will be any real Austrians and Germans left in like a 100 years..

I would like to keep this perfect example of a Nazi sentiment framed and posted on the wall. We need to know whom we are dealing with.

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Good article:

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/07/25/austria-freedom-party-populism-lesson-far-right/?printpage=true

Why is it so anti Hofer ..

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hofer is more Center-Right than Far-Right..

Compared with you, perhaps

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Good article:

http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/07/25/austria-freedom-party-populism-lesson-far-right/?printpage=true

Why is it so anti Hofer ..

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hofer is more Center-Right than Far-Right..

Compared with you, perhaps

Just for the record, would you classify Hofer as a neo-Nazi/Ultra nationalist?

He is not 100% there, but he is a lot closer to these than to the most right-wing politician I would consider minimally acceptable (and, mind it, I have almost consistenly voted rightwing in my contry and would have been a strong CDU supporter in Germany these days). I definitely would never shake a hand of any Hofer voter.

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You are the President of Mexico, you can chose from these two options.

Would you accept 200 Asylum seekers from (insert War torn country here) if you knew as soon as you accept them (not saying they do it, but that if you accept them they die, if you don't accept them they won't die):
One Mexican woman is killed brutally and one Mexican 10 year old girl is raped and killed

Would you accept these Asylum seekers at the cost of 2 Mexican lives?

This is i think the ultimate question to see if someone would be a good president.

I have myself signed a petition asking our government to accept 10,000 Syrian refugees - though, of course, I consider that number to be inadequately small - if I had any influence over Mexican policy over this, I would be advocating substantially larger numbers (say, 100,0000 would have been ok for the first few years; I doubt we could easily accept much more at once - we are a poor country - though, of course, we should try). One thing that very much impressed me on a recent trip to Brazil is how visible Syrians are there - you get Syrian food sold at subway entrances (and it is much nicer than the usual Brazilian fare). Actually, I very much envy Brazilians about it - we could definitely use some more Syrian/Middle Eastern food.

I have graver doubts about Austrians, though. Your ancestors have killed far too many of my fellow-tribesmen for that to be easily forgotten. Especially, when you are insisting on reminding it with posts like this one. I mean, you do have decent coffee/pastries and I do like an occasional sausage or schnitzel, but there are still enough children of refugees who fled your ancestors back then around for me to have a decent service on those lines (the Viennese backery on the corner here is delicious - even if it happens to be run by some Jews).  Frankly, I do find Austrians to be far too prone to supporting mass murder to take your ilk lightly. Syrians, in my experience, are much nicer people. I would still insist on admitting Austrian refugees if anything truly bad happened to that miserable place of yours - good character should not be a requirement for refuge. But, yeah, I would be somewhat worried. And that is even if I forget of all the misery that the House of Habsburg has brough to this land over the centuries!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkpA4Eyc7AM

De la remota playa
Te mira con tristeza
La estúpida nobleza
Del mocho y del traídor.
En lo hondo de su pecho
Ya siente su derrota;
Adiós, mamá Carlota
Adiós, mi tierno amor.

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If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?

Well, I know that 10 Mexicans will be imprisoned for 30 years in a basement for every Austrian who comes here, but you still had a visa-free entry the last time I checked. So, that answers your question.

And, BTW, Serbs do not have such a great reputation either. A raping and murderous bunch you guys are.  That is even if we forget about that shot in Sarajevo. I mean, for every Serb they let in, 1,000,000 innocents die. I am surprized that they let your ancestors come to Austria. I mean, there are no native Serbs in Vienna. To Belgrade! To Belgrade!

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I know it is silly, but it's purely hypothetical and you have danced around the subject.

BTW, I hope you know the meaning of the words "straw man". Trust me I can erect one better.

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If you knew 2 Mexican lives would be lost for 200 Refugees you accept, who would you choose?

And, BTW, Serbs do not have such a great reputation either. A raping and murderous bunch you guys are.  That is even if we forget about that shot in Sarajevo. I mean, for every Serb they let in, 1,000,000 innocents die. I am surprized that they let your ancestors come to Austria. I mean, there are no native Serbs in Vienna. To Belgrade! To Belgrade!

This is true, many murdered and pillaged, and it's true for most od the countries in the world at some point in history.

If you want to continue, use Pm.

This is off topic really and we shouldnt spam the Topic anymore.

Oh, this is very much on topic. You build strawmen - I burn them in public. I do not do this for your benefit - you, obviously, do not get any of it. But I am making a very germaine point - germaine for this very discussion.

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Oh man, this is getting ridiculous now ...

Constitutional experts have now found a reason why even the runoff re-vote could be contested again in a close election:

http://kurier.at/politik/stichwahl-werden-30-000-waehler-rechtswidrig-ausgeschlossen/212.145.048

Election law says the number of eligible voters has to be the same for the 1st round and the runoff (and even in case of a re-vote because of a tied runoff or a contested election like we have it now).

But here's the "problem":

The first round was held on April 24, the re-vote on Oct. 2 - which is almost half a year later.

During this half year, about 34.000 people died but another 32.000 would have reached age 16 and would therefore be eligible to vote. But they cannot vote, because of the first round cutoff date.

Obviously, the election law is pretty clear - but if the margin is close, who knows ?

The fact is, every close election anywhere can be contested. It is the matter of an outcome discontinuity, given the impossibility of exact measurement (of votes, voter intentions, etc.). This is why electoral law should never make overturning the first official result easy. The intellectually honest thing is to make the outcome random, with the probability of the win dependent on the vote share. It should be 100% when the gap is big enough (say, arnd 1%), but it should be continuous in the vote share.

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Austrians are so rich that they can also lose all this time (and money) to unnecessary election

But Heaven forbid they spend that money to help refugees instead!

U serious ?

We spend 1 billion € a year already on those refugees (and all the criminal parasites that come with them). Better ask why the Gulf states or the US are not spending more money on the refugees ...

The election repeat is necessary because the Court ruled so, there's no "spending of money instead".

Oh how i love a sensible Green voter with whom you can actually discuss real issues.

Whell, you choose the one "Green" voter whom many on these boards (your humble servant included) actually consider a Nazi.

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It is not a matter of money. It is a matter of confidence in the electoral system. The insistence on "exactly" counting the votes "exactly" according to some fixed procedure (not motivated by any serious considerations) will always mean that every close election will be viewed as some sort of a fraud. Public should be educated that there is no such thing as "every last vote counts correctly" - it has never happened, because it is simply impossible.

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I am astonished at how little knowledge of the real world these people have, guess 70 years of prosperity and a high living standard makes them think everyone in the world is Polite, Educated and brought by Western standards..

Well, they certainly have never met you.

This is, actually, a very serious point. For 70 years Europe (and the West in general) had the immunity - after the horror of the last War, that generation did not need to learn history to know why liberalism is important. That generation is gone, and it turns out the immunity was temporary. Alas, given the trends it is quite likely the new innoculation will be happening spontaneously pretty soon. Every vote for Hofer and the like is a vote for a major European war. I am afraid, those kids - nor the rest of us - will have a chance to enjoy peace and prospertiy much longer.

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Voters have every right ... that each and every of their votes are counted.

It is impossible. Never happened in history in any country in the world. Not even possible theoretically. The only way to achieve it is to abolish voting completely.