Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Bacon King]

Hello friends I have a few questions for your fine thread:

What time do the polls close - and how quickly do they report?
Is there any consistent pattern for Austrian election returns as they come in? (i.e. will the early returns be disproportionately favorable to either candidate)
The media I've seen makes it sound like Hofer is quite heavily favored - realistically, how likely is a VdB win here?

[Bacon King]

Which they will. Do we already have an accurate # on how many postal ballots are out there?

I've read 850,000 but I don't know if that's accurate

[Bacon King]

This could be 50-50 after mail, lol this could be Austria's version of the 2000 election

Maybe, but I expect VdB to get up to 65% of the postal ballots. He only needs 59.5%

how have postal ballots gone in the past?

[Bacon King]

Judging by vote-transfers from round 1 to round 2, the postals could actually be close enough for a small Hofer-win:

It seems that Hofer got 34% of Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP/Lugner voters today.

If we apply the same 34% for the postals, then Hofer ends up with 41% - which would be enough.

in this estimate how do you apportion the ~200k second round postal voters who didn't postal vote in the first round

[Bacon King]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

[Bacon King]

to clarify: absolutely no postal ballots have been counted yet, correct?

asking because of this:

https://twitter.com/c3o/status/734444612090253312

edit: http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

[Bacon King]

^ Postal ballots are not counted until tomorrow, so relax, sit back, there's no way to know the end result yet.

what are these from?

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at/1605-bw_ov_0.html

[Bacon King]

apparently it's probably just test data (though some or saying it's the unreleased postal vote tally). it's inaccessible anywhere on the site without typing in that direct url

[Bacon King]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

Thanks for this!

By their numbers it looks like VdB needs ~61% to win

[Bacon King]

Well, let me say this you people deserve these refugees.

hahahahahahaha wow aren't you 14

so edgy!

[Bacon King]

predictably, the wacko conspiracy theories have already begun

http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-05/fpoe-wahlen-oesterreich-norbert-hofer-party

[Bacon King]

sore losers ITT

[Bacon King]

Sad day for Austria, sad day for Europe. The fearmongering has won again.

the fearmongering lost tho

[Bacon King]

What's up with the non-contiguous part of Tirol? (this may not be the best thread for the question, but I've never noticed it before)