Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

  It would be hilarious of the SPO got so weak in the Tyrol that it was in danger of not winning any seats in the Landtag.  Still a way to go for that I realize.

[rob in cal]

   Would it be fair to say that Gudenus's father is a holocaust denier if he acknowledges the existence of gas chambers in German occupied Poland?  I thought that the camps on German soil like Dachau, Bergen Belsen, Ravensbruck, Buchenwald etc didn't have them.

[rob in cal]

  Yes, its interesting what is considered extreme or not on the immigration issue.  For instance, PM Cameron is only allowing a small number of these migrants in to the UK and yet there is no campaign of international outrage against him, or discussions of how he is the leader of some new rightist European bloc on this issue.
   If the SPO improves its political standing in the months ahead, it might be an interesting lesson for left wing regimes involved  in the migration debate, as it would show the political benefits of moving closer to the popular will on the this issue, (in terms of calling for a migration cap).

[rob in cal]

   Did Khol try to take credit for the OVP's role in putting in the migrant/refugee quota which might have had a ripple effect in slowing down, for now any way, the wave of migrants coming through the Balkans?  One would think that would have been a positive campaign message toward a lot of the electorate.  If VDB still ends up winning (remember what happened in France last year), I wonder if it would be the biggest comeback margin in a European Presidential election ever.
   Seems a lot of the electorate is basically saying that they want the cultural, demographic, ethnic, religious makeup of Austria's future to be similar to what it is today and for it not to be changed significantly.  

[rob in cal]

  One cool thing about the Hapsburgs is that instead of conquering territory they won it through dynastic marriages instead. I believe the phrase was that the empire grew through the bedroom not the battlefield.

[rob in cal]

    Will the defeated candidates endorse either one of the finalists?  Khol and Lugner for Hofer, Griss and Hundstorfer for VDB?

[rob in cal]

  I found one small village where the SPO received no votes, Untertilliach in Lienz district of Tyrol, with a voter turnout of 99 people.  I wonder if there are some zero vote OVP places, but maybe not as likely as they are stronger in rural areas.
  Also, do we have the socio-economic class breakdown of the vote in the exit polls?

[rob in cal]

   I wonder if the reason Hofer did so well among young men is the fact that such a huge percentage of the migrants are young men as well.  Austrian younger men could view them as a double threat, first off in the job market, second off in the marriage/relationship market, as potential rivals for both jobs and women.  If the majority of migrants coming to Austria were young attractive Ukrainian women fleeing conflict there, or Thai cocktail hostesses fleeing Moslem extremists, or Brazilian supermodels fleeing the Zika virus, perhaps we wouldn't have such a support spike for Hofer among this electorate.
   While Hofer won over 50%, I bet among working class young men he did even better.  Perhaps a campaign slogan for him in the runoff could be "Young Austrian men, with Hofer you stand a better chance of getting paid and getting laid".

[rob in cal]

   Tender, has Hofer stated his exact policy ideas for how Austria should be dealing with the migrant crisis?  Does he think some should be allowed to stay, or is he fully in the Orban camp of a zero migrant target?

[rob in cal]

   Well, it looks like the other parties are not endorsing. Chancellor Faymann is personally voting for VDB, but no SPO endorsement, and nothing from the OVP.  Also, interesting that the Trade Union Federation won't be endorsing a candidate.  Not sure if they ever do in elections but all this shows that so far there doesn't seem to be a massive anti-Hofer Popular Front type movement developing.  The blue collar elements of the Trade Unions are probably pro-Hofer (members anyway, likely not leadership I'd guess).
   This will be a fascinating socio-economic breakdown in terms of voting, in which the blue collar workforce supports a perceived right-wing candidate, and the higher classes a perceived left-wing, or center left-wing anyway candidate. 

[rob in cal]

   Tender, great maps.  A couple questions.  What accounts for Voralberg and the FPO weakness there?  Also, did the new asylum law passed on Tuesday go a long way toward what the FPO wants?  I saw that they voted against, but am wondering how much of that was for political reasons.  I wonder if the SPO dissidents will be tempted to move to the Greens because of this.

[rob in cal]

   Hofer is saying he wants to introduce Swiss style direct democracy into Austria.  I would think this would be a positive campaign message to hammer away at VDB with, not that the President could actually implement such a reform of course.  When the US electorate has voted on whether to introduce the right to initiative and referendum into their state constitutions the people have usually voted in favor.

[rob in cal]

   Ok, another what if Austria question.  If current Nationalrat polls are roughly correct and the FPO wins a solid plurality of seats in the next parliamentary elections, say 35% or so, but nowhere near a majority, would they be able to form a coalition government?  Would the OVP be willing to be a junior partner with them, or would they try to form an OVP, SPO, Green coalition or something like that?

[rob in cal]

   One would think that Griss would have made a strong runoff candidate, as she had a centrist profile and thus could win support from the center and left against Hofer.

[rob in cal]

    I wonder if the fact that so many of the crimes committed by migrants are against women will have an impact in the women's vote in coming elections, and also the vote in Vienna. 
    Tender, you mention that many people you know are going to vote for Hofer in the runoff.  What parties do they usually support in legislative elections?

[rob in cal]

   I like it that Hofer has put the expansion of direct democracy as one of his key bullet points on the poster.  In the US when we've had governors or governor candidates who claim to support the institution of initiative and referendum in their states (like Gov. Bush in Texas, and currently Christie in New Jersey) they usually don't make a big deal about it and actually campaign on it, so its nice to see Hofer highlighting it.

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering what smaller cities or towns have a big working class and have historically been SPO strongholds but might very well give Hofer a big majority?  Also, on the other side, wealthier smaller cities and towns which have historically gone to the OVP perhaps, but now might swing to VDB. 

[rob in cal]

  Maybe VDB does really well in Vienna and nowhere else but still wins.  That would be an Illinois scenario where the Dem wins Cook county massively, loses every other county in the state, but still wins.  I believed this happened in the 2010 governor race.

[rob in cal]

   Does the small turnout for the anti-Hofer protest signify anything? Hasn't this been planned for awhile also?  I get the feeling from the various discussions about him and articles that he doesn't inspire a massive opposition, or energize huge amounts of people to turnout to vote against him, unlike, say, the Le Pen vs Chirac runoff of the early 2000's.

[rob in cal]

    Tender, I wonder if the extra high amount of postal ballots might lead to a different breakdown of how well VDB does with them, because maybe Hofer voters are part of the surge as well.

[rob in cal]

   I'm going to have to boycott this thread tomorrow because someone will probably be talking about  the exit polls, and I don't want to know them. Instead I'll follow the election results on the government web site as returns come in and then re-join the thread once its clear who is winning. I'm too chicken to make a winner prediction, just that it will be pretty close.

[rob in cal]

   Wow, Tender, that is a beautiful view.  Makes me want to visit Austria even more, regardless of who the next President is. Its been 27 years since I was there, but hope to be back in a few years.

[rob in cal]

  I know that there will be a lot of postal ballots from Vienna, but it does seem that even accounting for them voter turnout was on the low side there.

[rob in cal]

    Here's a tidy way to look at tomorrow.  VDB will come close to wiping out Hofer's current lead with the postal ballots from Vienna and Voralberg.  Can Hofer hold his own with the rest, 190k of which is from Styria and Carinthia?

[rob in cal]

   The instructions on the government website say the postal ballots can be submitted to a precinct on election day, so that would be that 200k figure mentioned, but how do we know they have been counted? I would think they would be kept separate and added to the ballots that came by mail. Just speculating, but I think that's what happens in California.