Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial news: PLQ bigwigs and a PQ fonctionnaire arrested by UPAC.

OAS eligibility age will be reset to 65.

Agreed w/Hebert as usual.

An Ottawan Mountie committed suicide.

[DC Al Fine]

OAS eligibility age will be reset to 65.

One of the most fiscally ridiculous and regressive actions of the Liberals to date. Younger seniors as a group are one of the wealthiest demographics in the country. Fixing a retirement system under strain in large part due to low birth rates by transferring funds from folks in their childbearing years is just silly.

The correct solution IMO (and I said this when Harper was in power as well) is to reduce the clawback threshold on OAS. I have clients with household incomes around $100k who still receive their full pension. Such folks do not need income top ups.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are going to drive this country bankrupt in their attempt to out left the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Tiptoeing, but I agree with DC.

Somewhere Harper chuckles to himself.

Julian endorses Mulcair's leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, I am divided about getting rid of Mulcair. On paper he should go, but who replaces him?

[DC Al Fine]

For the record, I am divided about getting rid of Mulcair. On paper he should go, but who replaces him?

If I was in the NDP, I would vote to keep him.

Mulcair was hampered by the public's perceptions of the two progressive parties. Similar to how it took Nixon to go to China, it took the Liberals to take a step to the left. The NDP simply didn't have the same fiscal credibility to pull off what Trudeau did.

[RogueBeaver]

Panzergirl was in town today as part of an EP delegation, no one of importance met her. Some young PQ activists bragged about meeting her, which forced PKP to repudiate them. Her press flack did ask if Drainville is a Commie though.

[Poirot]

I've answered an Ipsos poll about the future federal budget. I had to rank 15 priorities, give opinion on different size of deficit number and if I agree on different statements. I hope it was for a media and made public before the next budget.

It was done with Global. For the priorities, they report if they are in the top 3 of respondents.

40% spending more on health care
34% cuttin taxes
28% increasing taxes on wealthiest citizens
28% cutting the deficit
28% spending more to help middle class families

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7182

For the size of deficit, 74% would support a balanced budget
55% would support a deficit of $10 billion (highest support in BC, lowest in Quebec),
26% would support $20 billion deficit
15% would support $30 billion
12% would support $40 billion

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7179

And other questions on the government and economy such as 53% believe volatile economic conditions give the right to Liberals to break promises.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7176

[RogueBeaver]

Jim Hillyer has died. RIP.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, I am divided about getting rid of Mulcair. On paper he should go, but who replaces him?

If I was in the NDP, I would vote to keep him.

Mulcair was hampered by the public's perceptions of the two progressive parties. Similar to how it took Nixon to go to China, it took the Liberals to take a step to the left. The NDP simply didn't have the same fiscal credibility to pull off what Trudeau did.

Very true, but it's very clear the NDP needs to tack left now if they want to differentiate themselves from the Liberals. Going to the centre is all well and good when the Liberals are in third, but there's no room there now. I doubt Mulcair can pull the party to the left, but who will?

My guess is Mulcair gets about a 60% approval and is forced to step down.

[DC Al Fine]

For the record, I am divided about getting rid of Mulcair. On paper he should go, but who replaces him?

If I was in the NDP, I would vote to keep him.

Mulcair was hampered by the public's perceptions of the two progressive parties. Similar to how it took Nixon to go to China, it took the Liberals to take a step to the left. The NDP simply didn't have the same fiscal credibility to pull off what Trudeau did.

Very true, but it's very clear the NDP needs to tack left now if they want to differentiate themselves from the Liberals. Going to the centre is all well and good when the Liberals are in third, but there's no room there now. I doubt Mulcair can pull the party to the left, but who will?

My guess is Mulcair gets about a 60% approval and is forced to step down.

How much of a left wing tack do you think the NDP needs? You know I'm not a fan of the cling to the centre theory of electioneering, but there's a huge difference between differentiating the party from the Liberals and adopting the NDP Socialist Caucus platform.

I'm getting the impression, at least on Facebook, that NDP supporters are turning into the Canadian version of those GOPers who think that every defeat is caused by not being conservative enough, but that sort of thinking would be disastrous. Personally I think the NDP is in a no-win situation until the Trudeau government turns into the second coming of Paul Martin, or some Liberals get caught with their hand in the till.

[DC Al Fine]

Oh, here's an interesting graph outlining the difficult situation the provincial governments are in:

[RogueBeaver]

I don't think the Grits will stay way out on left field and squash the NDP that way. Justin's dad tried that in his first term and nearly lost.  But they can certainly keep them where they are now, IMO.

[King of Kensington]

Very true, but it's very clear the NDP needs to tack left now if they want to differentiate themselves from the Liberals. Going to the centre is all well and good when the Liberals are in third, but there's no room there now. I doubt Mulcair can pull the party to the left, but who will?

My guess is Mulcair gets about a 60% approval and is forced to step down.

A lot of NDPers don't want to admit it, but they got extremely lucky in 2011.  It wasn't the centrist shift that resulted in the breakthrough or the tactical brilliance of Brad Lavigne or the "inevitable" displacement of the Liberals by a "proper" left-right polarization.  They had the perfect storm: a VERY unpopular Liberal leader, a political vacuum in Quebec, and Layton's personal appeal.  I think people voted NDP because they thought was Jack was a nice guy but didn't have a clue what was in the platform.

Mulcair is sounding really desperate now when he says he's a "democratic socialist", doesn't have a problem with deficits if spending is used to "help people" etc. 

The problem with Mulcair is he offers the worst of both worlds: neither principle or electability. 

As for the question "if not Mulcair then who?" - well the party doesn't have much of a purpose anymore if they're doomed without him.  I think a leadership race would be healthy for the NDP as it would kickstart a debate about the party's future direction.

[King of Kensington]

How much of a left wing tack do you think the NDP needs? You know I'm not a fan of the cling to the centre theory of electioneering, but there's a huge difference between differentiating the party from the Liberals and adopting the NDP Socialist Caucus platform.

I think the left-populist approach of Bernie Sanders, or Ed Broadbent-style social democracy (those two are pretty much identical ideologically) would work.  

It'll be interesting to see how Gary Burrill does in your home province.

[King of Kensington]

I don't think the Grits will stay way out on left field and squash the NDP that way. Justin's dad tried that in his first term and nearly lost.  But they can certainly keep them where they are now, IMO.

PET also tacked left in 1980.  It worked wonders in Ontario where the NDP was held down to 5 seats, in spite of getting 22% of the vote.  However by then he was so hated in the West that the Liberals took only 2 seats in the West.

[RogueBeaver]

Committees are a bit chaotic ATM thanks to rookie Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Alberta's right will have to be unified the hard way. Hopefully Jean's up for that.

[RogueBeaver]

100% agreed.

Labour remains behind Mulcair.

Forum-ON: Wynne at 20/64 disapprove, Tories lead 40/30/24. Brown needs personal & policy definition lest it be done for him, as Hudak found out 5 years ago.

[Njall]

Alberta's right will have to be unified the hard way. Hopefully Jean's up for that.

I'm not sure why that gentleman from Cardston-Taber-Warner feels so strongly about the issue.  No to belittle his views, of course, but even in 2015, the non-PC/WRP vote in that riding was only 22.7%.  I would argue that keeping the parties separate is better for rural Alberta, since the prospect of competition would prevent the residents from being taken for granted like they would be under a theoretical united party.

In all seriousness though, I have a hard time seeing the parties coming together anytime soon.  A strong majority of PC members that I know oppose the idea of a merger.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean Lapierre and members of his family were killed in a Magdalen Islands plane crash today. RIP.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau in DC prepping for the next admin. Also has a standing invitation to Havana.


EKOS: 42.3/31.7/11.7.

[RogueBeaver]

Good.

LMAO.

[Derpist]

Trudeau in DC prepping for the next admin. Also has a standing invitation to Havana.


EKOS: 42.3/31.7/11.7.

Wow, that's brutal. It reminds me of the global trend in the left - people caring more about being hip and cool and random SJW issues (MOAR REFUGEES!!!) than actual progressive economic policy (say what you must, but the NDP wouldn't have had pulled a 30b deficit out of nowhere).

On the other hand, I have family who work in NDP politics, so I should make fun of them the next time we meet up.

[RogueBeaver]

Hassan Yusuff is anti-Mulcair and thinks he'll flunk the review.