Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
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Absolutely they are done like dinner
 
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NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb
 
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NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme
 
#4
NDP will definitely win
 
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 188626 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #750 on: January 01, 2017, 03:42:08 PM »

Maybe I should've just said left. He even quit the party!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #751 on: January 01, 2017, 03:52:11 PM »

Maybe I should've just said left. He even quit the party!

Oh, I'm not quibbling with how you characterized it. I just mean I'm surprised their left had much of a presence at all in NB. I guess David Coon will be the left's standard bearer next time.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #752 on: January 02, 2017, 04:13:21 AM »


Kind of surprised NBNDP even has a hard left. New Brunswick has got to be the least hospitable province for any sort of radical left, except maybe PEI. It has no big cities, no tradition of mining/farmer activism, and no arch-reactionary tradition to antagonize the left.

Well, if you read correctly, there is nothing about the "hard left".

It's just annoying unions who refused a leader who wasn't doing their bidding 100% of time.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #753 on: January 02, 2017, 02:44:43 PM »

To be honest, I'm rather disappointed in the NDP campaign there. Yes, they won a moral victory of "LARGEST VOTE TOTAL EVARR!!!!" but they failed to win a seat. And what the  was Cardy doing running in Fredericton West instead of Fredericton South or Saint John Harbour? You gotta win a seat to keep momentum going. There's a reason why the Greens are polling third in NB.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #754 on: January 02, 2017, 05:01:36 PM »


In his open letter (or Facebook post) he complains about and says part of the reason he quit the NDP was his unhappiness that in being a member of the New Brunswick NDP he also had to be a member of the Federal NDP whether he wanted to be or not.

I was especially pleased to read that from him.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #755 on: January 03, 2017, 11:55:17 AM »

and now there are rumours he may join the PCs. Good riddance. I guess we can't trust moderate New Democrats? From the looks of it, he was trying to hijack the NDP as his own personal political vehicle, and almost succeeded because the party lacked any organization.

If he was upset by a minor group of vocal socialists or trade unionists or something, he could've as leader used his power to over rule them. I'm sure he would've had the backing of the majority of the membership, and could've done it using democratic means.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #756 on: January 03, 2017, 03:16:03 PM »

and now there are rumours he may join the PCs. Good riddance. I guess we can't trust moderate New Democrats? From the looks of it, he was trying to hijack the NDP as his own personal political vehicle, and almost succeeded because the party lacked any organization.

If he was upset by a minor group of vocal socialists or trade unionists or something, he could've as leader used his power to over rule them. I'm sure he would've had the backing of the majority of the membership, and could've done it using democratic means.

1.I don't think he was trying to hijack anything, he was up front when he first ran for the leadership that he regarded himself as a centrist 'third way' New Democrat. 

2.He commented in his open letter or Facebook comment.  I could get the exact quote, but he said something along the lines of "I could spend all my time fighting these people and I'm sure I would defeat them, but that would leave me no time to prepare for the next election."
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #757 on: January 04, 2017, 10:08:51 AM »



2.He commented in his open letter or Facebook comment.  I could get the exact quote, but he said something along the lines of "I could spend all my time fighting these people and I'm sure I would defeat them, but that would leave me no time to prepare for the next election."

Does he not realize that he alone does not have to do everything? This is why politicos have teams.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #758 on: January 04, 2017, 03:17:55 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2017, 03:22:26 PM by Adam T »



2.He commented in his open letter or Facebook comment.  I could get the exact quote, but he said something along the lines of "I could spend all my time fighting these people and I'm sure I would defeat them, but that would leave me no time to prepare for the next election."

Does he not realize that he alone does not have to do everything? This is why politicos have teams.

Yes, he realizes that, I wrote it wasn't an exact quote, but I was carelessly using the 'plural I' (Is that even a thing?)  "Royal we...."

This is the exact quote from that section:
"Today I have the resources to win a leadership fight, as I have won every fight before, or to win an electoral breakthrough. I cannot do both"


This is his full post on Facebook:

January 1, 2017

Fellow New Brunswickers,
When I ran for leader of the New Brunswick New Democratic Party I challenged my party to become genuinely progressive. To break the network of patronage and bailouts that has undermined our province. To make our province fair, free, and wealthy.

The NDP we built since 2011 attracted lifetime New Democrats, reform-minded Liberals and Conservatives, and others who had never been inspired to run for office. We spoke hard truths: Wasteful government spending threatens the poor and social programs we need just as much as reckless tax cuts. Giving handouts to companies while cutting education is not economic development, it’s social vandalism. We need a strong government, not a big government.

We worked across party lines and got NDP authored bills passed into law – a Canadian first for a party with no seats. With a team of young volunteers and dedicated staff we cleaned up a party massively in debt, chronically disorganized, and deeply undemocratic in its operations. Today the NDP is debt free, the most organized provincial party, and runs according to clear rules.

I am so proud of the work my team accomplished. We ran a team of outstanding candidates and ran on a platform widely acknowledged as the best in 2014. We won more votes than any NDP campaign in New Brunswick’s history. We earned equal billing with the Liberals and PCs. We spooked the Liberals to the point they ran ads against us: I’ll take that as a compliment! We did it all on a shoestring budget, showing we were serious about being good stewards of people’s money. But we could not break the two-party cycle.

Since the disappointment of 2014 I have been honoured to win a leadership review at convention and votes of confidence at Provincial Council meetings. However, some New Democrats unfortunately believe change and openness have had their time. They want to return to an old NDP of true believers, ideological litmus tests and moral victories.

Some of these people, with support from certain leaders of the province’s largest public sector union, have tried to bend and break the rules, abusing new members and trying to undermine the democratic will of the party. They have served notice that, no matter how many votes they lose, they will continue to organize. Not to win elections, but to fight endless internal battles.

As leader, this leaves me with a difficult choice: Reward bad behaviour and adopt a protest platform or marshal the team to win yet another vote. The first choice was never an option. I will not be part of offering our province another set of bad, discredited, ideas. The second choice would exact a toll on party volunteers and staff who have been subjected, from 2011, to unacceptable abuse.

Today I have the resources to win a leadership fight, as I have won every fight before, or to win an electoral breakthrough. I cannot do both.

Today the NDP faces a rerun of 2014. Limited time and energy is being wasted on infighting before the election. That contributed to our loss in 2014 as it will in 2018. Those same destructive forces continue their sterile battle, ignoring the will of the party they claim to champion, using language from the 1930s and policies from the 1970s. There is nothing progressive about this behaviour.

The NDP is a one-stop shop. When you join the provincial NDP you join the federal NDP, whether you like it or not. Recently the federal NDP abandoned its proud history of internationalism, declaring itself a pacifist party. In a world where liberal democratic values are under threat from religious and political extremism and Canada confronts challenges from aggressive authoritarian regimes pacifism is a dangerous, extreme, and immoral position. The federal NDP’s statement that the conflict in Syria is “not our fight” goes against everything I believe: we live on a small planet with a responsibility to look after each other.

I cannot lead a party where a tiny minority of well-connected members refuse to accept the democratic will of the membership. I cannot continue as a member of a party that has abandoned internationalism. Therefore, after a Christmas of reflection with family and friends, I am resigning as leader and as a member of the New Brunswick NDP, effective January 1, 2017.

I grew up in New Brunswick. I love this province. Being leader of this party, having the chance to meet people in every corner of the province, to share their struggles and successes, has been the best experience of my life. We have the people we need to succeed; we still need a political vehicle to drive us where we need to go. I had hoped the NDP was that vehicle and, alongside many talented and caring people, I did my best to build it.

I have always been clear that parties are less important than ideas. I am stepping away from the NDP but I remain a New Brunswicker who loves this province. I look forward to fighting for my team’s ideals in new ways. Thank you to the team who worked alongside me. Thank you to the tens of thousands of New Brunswickers who voted for our vision of a better province.
We did our best. Thank you for the chance to serve,

Dominic Cardy

– 30 –
For further information, contact: Kelly Lamrock
(506) 476-3807
info@nbndp.ca

https://www.facebook.com/dominic.cardy/posts/10157927890850545


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That's more than voted NDP in New Brunswick in their last provincial election!!!! Cheesy (That's not true at all, sorry.)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #759 on: January 04, 2017, 06:21:15 PM »

Meh. Whatever. He doesn't strike me as being very committed. Third wayism has been discredited anyways. I'm not suggesting the NDP make a hard left in the province, but there are some issues it can get behind, like fracking for example. Helped get the Greens elected a seat.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #760 on: January 04, 2017, 09:19:50 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2017, 09:21:28 PM by DC Al Fine »


Kind of surprised NBNDP even has a hard left. New Brunswick has got to be the least hospitable province for any sort of radical left, except maybe PEI. It has no big cities, no tradition of mining/farmer activism, and no arch-reactionary tradition to antagonize the left.

Well, if you read correctly, there is nothing about the "hard left".

It's just annoying unions who refused a leader who wasn't doing their bidding 100% of time.

Ok, point still stands. Factional battles are something relevant parties should do Tongue The NB NDP should all be singing the chorus to Living on a Prayer, not engaging in factional battles.

Whoa, we're half way there
Whoa, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Meh. Whatever. He doesn't strike me as being very committed. Third wayism has been discredited anyways. I'm not suggesting the NDP make a hard left in the province, but there are some issues it can get behind, like fracking for example. Helped get the Greens elected a seat.

What are your thoughts on people who say the Tories (or GOP for that matter) have to moderate to ever stand a chance against Trudeau? There's a refrain from a certain sort of progressive that the right must always moderate and the left lost because they were in the mushy middle. Not asking this as a gotcha question. Just curious.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #761 on: January 05, 2017, 12:49:06 PM »


Kind of surprised NBNDP even has a hard left. New Brunswick has got to be the least hospitable province for any sort of radical left, except maybe PEI. It has no big cities, no tradition of mining/farmer activism, and no arch-reactionary tradition to antagonize the left.

Well, if you read correctly, there is nothing about the "hard left".

It's just annoying unions who refused a leader who wasn't doing their bidding 100% of time.

Ok, point still stands. Factional battles are something relevant parties should do Tongue The NB NDP should all be singing the chorus to Living on a Prayer, not engaging in factional battles.

Whoa, we're half way there
Whoa, livin' on a prayer
Take my hand and we'll make it - I swear
Whoa, livin' on a prayer

Meh. Whatever. He doesn't strike me as being very committed. Third wayism has been discredited anyways. I'm not suggesting the NDP make a hard left in the province, but there are some issues it can get behind, like fracking for example. Helped get the Greens elected a seat.

What are your thoughts on people who say the Tories (or GOP for that matter) have to moderate to ever stand a chance against Trudeau? There's a refrain from a certain sort of progressive that the right must always moderate and the left lost because they were in the mushy middle. Not asking this as a gotcha question. Just curious.

I used to think that the left had to moderate in order to get elected, but I think there is a real appetite for a more populist left out there, that appeals to people across the spectrum (look at Bernie Sanders). If the NDP focused on issues that really resonated with people, and ran a populist campaign on those issues, they would attract a lot of support. Remember, most people are not that ideological.

As for the Tories, it depends on the circumstance of course. Mike Harris was on the far right of the Tories, but got elected twice in Ontario. It was a visceral reaction to the previous government which I shall not name Wink Tim Hudak, who also ran a far right campaign failed though. But then again, so did John Tory whose campaign was more centrist. I think I'd give the same advice to conservatives as I would for the NDP. Run on a populist campaign that speaks to voters concerns. You don't need to go down the route of Kellie Leitch or Donald Trump- in fact I would say don't touch social issues at all (I'd suggest the same for the NDP, actually) - but do focus on the economy, and focus on taxes. The voters in the 905 eat that kind of thing up, but harping on social issues will alienate them. I think Mike Harris did this fairly effectively, but Hudak didn't. John Tory brought up social issues too much (even though it wasn't from a far right position) and scared off a lot of small-c conservatives as a result.

I hope that answers your question Smiley
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Mike88
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« Reply #762 on: January 05, 2017, 05:53:00 PM »

Found on Facebook this report about the government fiscal projections:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/01/04/buried-government-report-reveals-looming-fiscal-crisis

First, i don't know how accurate the "Ottawa Sun" is, or if it is even accurate, but how bad can this government report be to the Libs and for Trudeau policies?

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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #763 on: January 06, 2017, 12:00:46 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2017, 10:15:07 AM by Adam T »

Found on Facebook this report about the government fiscal projections:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/01/04/buried-government-report-reveals-looming-fiscal-crisis

First, i don't know how accurate the "Ottawa Sun" is, or if it is even accurate, but how bad can this government report be to the Libs and for Trudeau policies?



1.The debt/GDP ratio rising to 30.4% by 2021 is, I think, genuinely concerning, though not inherently unstable by itself.  (By 2021 we'd have a better idea of the expected rate out increase out to say 2030 and then be in a better position to judge.) However, it does further point to how ideal it would be to have the Liberals explain how they'll get the budget back into balance.

2.The deficit projections out to 2055 are absurd.  Nobody can predict essentially 40 years into the future with any accuracy. (Other than maybe Nostradamus, but he's dead.)

3.From skimming over the report that is linked to in the article, it reads to me like the main purpose of the report was to justify a fairly massive increase in the level of immigration.

An alternate possibility to increasing immigration is that the government reverses course on its decision to revoke the increase in the retirement age where they put it back to 65 from the 67 it was going to be raised to. To stop the projected deficit increases to, say 2030, they'd probably have to consider increasing the retirement age to around 70.  

Of course, by retirement age, I'm referring to the age when people can collect government pension benefits and the like, and, of course, I'm referring to this age being raised on people who are presently below a certain age, like 40 or 50.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #764 on: January 06, 2017, 07:42:18 AM »

Cabinet shuffle incoming later this month, quite likely Freeland moves to Foreign Affairs.
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Vega
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« Reply #765 on: January 06, 2017, 04:09:36 PM »

Cabinet shuffle incoming later this month, quite likely Freeland moves to Foreign Affairs.

I wonder if she'll still be on Bill Maher. Cheesy
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #766 on: January 06, 2017, 11:11:11 PM »

ing-fiscal-crisis

First, i don't know how accurate the "Ottawa Sun" is, or if it is even accurate


LOL! It's not. It's tabloid trash.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #767 on: January 07, 2017, 09:38:02 AM »
« Edited: January 07, 2017, 12:28:08 PM by RogueBeaver »

Justin's top advisors have been meeting with Trump's for months and there seems to be some progress on trade.

More on the shuffle that may be in the late spring: Dion might lose his current portfolio, Mihychuk is definitely losing hers, Freeland may not get Foreign Affairs due to Trumpian incompability. Chagger could lose Small Business. Possible Bennett and/or McCallum retire.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #768 on: January 08, 2017, 07:57:06 AM »

Found on Facebook this report about the government fiscal projections:

http://www.ottawasun.com/2017/01/04/buried-government-report-reveals-looming-fiscal-crisis

First, i don't know how accurate the "Ottawa Sun" is, or if it is even accurate, but how bad can this government report be to the Libs and for Trudeau policies?


As for the report itself, it's somewhat alarming, but the projections are so far out that they are near useless. Small changes in assumptions could have huge effects on the results down the line. Essentially, Trudeau's fiscal policies are limiting future governments' flexibility but the fed's fiscal house is in ok shape.

The bigger problem in Canada is the provincial governments, many of which face aging populations and have limited abilities to raise new revenue or make cuts to spending.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #769 on: January 09, 2017, 02:34:32 PM »
« Edited: January 09, 2017, 03:43:11 PM by RogueBeaver »

So far so good in WH relations, plus Mulroney & Burney are helping out.

Shuffle tomorrow.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #770 on: January 10, 2017, 11:42:24 PM »

Freeland to Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Hussen to Immigration/Refugees/Integration. Champagne to succeed Freeland on International Trade.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #771 on: January 13, 2017, 12:04:52 AM »

Jimmy Dore's take on Trudeau lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLER04yXGdk
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #772 on: January 13, 2017, 07:29:26 PM »

Huh. And the Young Turks were so excited when Trudeau won too. Tongue
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Vega
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« Reply #773 on: January 14, 2017, 07:16:15 PM »

Huh. And the Young Turks were so excited when Trudeau won too. Tongue

Jimmy Dore definitely doesn't speak for TYT as a whole.

And he's 50 but looks 62.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #774 on: January 15, 2017, 06:54:04 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2017, 08:05:26 PM by RogueBeaver »

Joe Oliver has lost the York Centre PC nomination.
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