Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[RogueBeaver]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

[DC Al Fine]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

How exactly did Union Nationale squash BP & RIN?

[RogueBeaver]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

How exactly did Union Nationale squash BP & RIN?

To simplify a bit, co-opted their issues in a diluted form then steamrollered them. BP fell apart pretty quickly once the war ended. RIN was different: Johnson and Bourgault negotiated an electoral pact whose effect was bleeding Grits in suburbia both on & off-island, allowing UN to come up the middle there. Especially younger lefty nationalists/separatists who couldn't stomach voting for conservatives. Johnson's death (per Black, Johnson saw '66 as '44 & '70 as '48) ended the prospect of Phase 2. The pact was 1) consolidate behind UN candidate in 12 swing ridings while leaving poteau on ballot 2) no-comp in leader ridings 3) concentrate their combined energy on Grits. Pretty much what Lisée would want now.

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard the other day that the NDP is finally going to get the ball running in terms of fielding candidates for the next provincial election? Wonder if that will shake things up a bit. Depends who the leader is, I guess.

[DC Al Fine]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

How exactly did Union Nationale squash BP & RIN?

To simplify a bit, co-opted their issues in a diluted form then steamrollered them. BP fell apart pretty quickly once the war ended. RIN was different: Johnson and Bourgault negotiated an electoral pact whose effect was bleeding Grits in suburbia both on & off-island, allowing UN to come up the middle there. Especially younger lefty nationalists/separatists who couldn't stomach voting for conservatives. Johnson's death (per Black, Johnson saw '66 as '44 & '70 as '48) ended the prospect of Phase 2. The pact was 1) consolidate behind UN candidate in 12 swing ridings while leaving poteau on ballot 2) no-comp in leader ridings 3) concentrate their combined energy on Grits. Pretty much what Lisée would want now.

Interesting, thank you.

I heard the other day that the NDP is finally going to get the ball running in terms of fielding candidates for the next provincial election? Wonder if that will shake things up a bit. Depends who the leader is, I guess.

How do you think they would do at this point? I mainly remember this as a pre-Trudeau idea. What's the ignored demographic they'd be targeting? Leftish federalists who can't bring themselves to vote QS?

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with Bélanger that GND's arrival ends what little prospect there was for NPDQ. Léger poll showing a potential QS-ON alliance at 18% & increasing regional strength should start worrying the PQ IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

Caroline Mulroney is considering running for Parliament, presumably in the 905.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mid-mandate housecleaning inbound.

On this province: count me extremely skeptical CAQ surge will hold. Happens every 5 years: ADQ 2002/7, CAQ 2011 & now. PQ missed their chance a decade ago (as Josee Legault, Michel David & others have said then & now) to nip these problems in the bud, like Unionists did with BP & RIN. Too late now. So they're stuck in a weird purgatory where QS is an erosion which can't be squashed but not a fatal one a la 1970.

How exactly did Union Nationale squash BP & RIN?

To simplify a bit, co-opted their issues in a diluted form then steamrollered them. BP fell apart pretty quickly once the war ended. RIN was different: Johnson and Bourgault negotiated an electoral pact whose effect was bleeding Grits in suburbia both on & off-island, allowing UN to come up the middle there. Especially younger lefty nationalists/separatists who couldn't stomach voting for conservatives. Johnson's death (per Black, Johnson saw '66 as '44 & '70 as '48) ended the prospect of Phase 2. The pact was 1) consolidate behind UN candidate in 12 swing ridings while leaving poteau on ballot 2) no-comp in leader ridings 3) concentrate their combined energy on Grits. Pretty much what Lisée would want now.

Interesting, thank you.

I heard the other day that the NDP is finally going to get the ball running in terms of fielding candidates for the next provincial election? Wonder if that will shake things up a bit. Depends who the leader is, I guess.

How do you think they would do at this point? I mainly remember this as a pre-Trudeau idea. What's the ignored demographic they'd be targeting? Leftish federalists who can't bring themselves to vote QS?

I think they might have some following if Pierre Ducasse remained as leader, but the problem in Quebec is there aren't many left wing federalists. Same reason Northern Ireland doesn't have a left wing unionist party.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario: PC MPP Jack McLaren expelled from caucus for Francophobia.

[136or142]

Saskatchewan NDP have a 9% lead in latest poll
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/sk-party-fades-as-ndp-takes-9-point-lead/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/poll-lowest-sask-party-support-1.4077126

Brad Wall looks like he's aged a decade in the last 2 years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol at the random PC revival though!

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier might challenge Scheer's legitimacy.

[RogueBeaver]

CRA update: 46/33/11 in NB, 38/26/26/10 in PEI.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey RB, you should include the Greens when reporting on NB polls, since they have a seat in the legislature. Poll has them at 6%, which is 1% lower than in the last election.

[RogueBeaver]

Meilleur withdraws her OLC nomination.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Beverley McLachlin stepping down from SC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/supreme-court-canada-announcement-1.4157132

[DC Al Fine]

Denis Lebel is retiring

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet-QC: 33/27/22/18. Grits lead here on the island with PQ/QS tied at 19%, CAQ leads in Quebec City, 3-way race elsewhere. We'll see how long GND-manie lasts.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

They will do as they always do, and gain one more seat (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve to be exact). At this rate, they will get a majority government in ~250 years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is more important for QS, separatism or leftism?

[MaxQue]

Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

They will do as they always do, and gain one more seat (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve to be exact). At this rate, they will get a majority government in ~250 years.

With PQ that low, I would expect Lisée to be in danger in Rosemont, and, if Liberals are to lose, it might be possible in Laurier-Dorion (the fact the MLA was expelled for being a sex creep does help them).

[Boston Bread]

What is more important for QS, separatism or leftism?

Leftism is the impression that I get from them.

[136or142]

Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

They will do as they always do, and gain one more seat (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve to be exact). At this rate, they will get a majority government in ~250 years.

In no way am I trying to play on the sleazy implication that all those on the left are no different than communists, but just to add to the joke here, in order to speed up the date of their majority government, QS should insist on elections being held using the same schedule as elections to the Russian Soviets in 1917: every two weeks.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

What has the PQ done to offend the sensibilities of the left wing sovereignty movement? I do know that when the PQ was founded in the 1970's it was very close with the labour movement and was a dedicated social democratic party. Did they take the Clintonian DLC/Tony Blair New Labour approach in the 1990's then?