Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Vega]

Harper wasn't from Quebec and he won seats in Quebec. The NDP needs to focus on holding on to the more left wing ridings, like Rosemont and Laurier-Ste. Marie, in the same way the Tories are strong in the Chaudiere-Appalaches.

He did speak French though, even if it wasn't the best.

[MaxQue]

An article in Le Journal de Montréal asking if it's the end of the NDP in Québec.

No, but it's not surprising a Péladeau newspaper asks the question.

[RogueBeaver]

Assisted suicide law being introduced today.

Ben Harper has started weighing in on public policy.

[MaxQue]

Supreme Court accepts to hear the case about voting rights of Canadians living abroad.

[2952-0-0]

Stay classy, Conservatives...

[MaxQue]

Stay classy, Conservatives...

It's Cheryl Gallant. Classy and her don't belong in the same sentence.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin on arms deal: contract must be honoured.


Ottawa Citizen found more Maclaren recordings.

YUGE deficit in AB.

Interesting BC housing debate.

[MaxQue]

Because of a burnout, the new Quebec Culture minister, Luc Fortin, go on a leave for a few weeks. Replaced by his predecessor Hélène David, also Higher Education minister (all those moves were caused by the sick leave of Pierre Moreau).

Due to illness and scandals, the government lost 3 ministers since February.

[2952-0-0]

Electoral reform has finally appeared on the agenda in Parliament. Maryam Monsef has laid out eight principles which she wants to use to guide the process. Among them are that the new electoral system shouldn't be more complex, and that the local relationship between the MP and the constituent must be maintained.

Seemingly this rules out party list PR. MMP becomes iffy.

On that note, assuming we receive some form of PR (STV or regional open lists), things will change.

The Liberals must learn the meaning of compromise as it's unlikely to retain its majority. It won't form a coalition with the NDP, or any coalition at all. Borgen becomes mandatory viewing at Langevin Block.

The NDP's leftward lurch last weekend is partly gambling on the introduction of reform. If it hovers at 10-15% support, it's still guaranteed a respectable 35-50 seats. If reform fails, then the NDP will have trouble maintaining official party status.

The Conservatives *should* delay the leadership convention until well after the new system is known. But whether the new system is ranked ballots or PR, they will go nowhere with another Harper-like leader.

The Greens will easily reach official status under PR. It might even win 25 seats if the perfect storm arises. Elizabeth May could well decide to retire after the 2019 election. They will rebuff any Liberal flirting after the 2019 vote.

As long as the Bloc retains 15% of the vote in Quebec, it's guaranteed official status. Perversely this incentivizes it to appeal to the pur et dur segment. Maybe it even becomes a European-style right-wing populist party on the lines of the Front Nationale.

The Conservatives must also watch their backs. PR would allow the emergence of a party to their right, especially if the new leader is unable to fire up the base. Even if the Christian Heritage Party elects only its leader, this grants far greater visibility.

If the NDP is unable to unite after its current soul-searching, there's room for a party to its left. Maybe Quebec Solidaire going federal? Lefties looooove to schism, after all.

No Libertarians will get elected. Not a single Libertarian has been elected to any national parliament anywhere in the world.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Err, Costa Rica, Australia, Denmark, Slovakia...

[RogueBeaver]

Great article from the Edmonton Journal's Paula Simons on Alberta's female suffrage centenary.

[Vega]

The Liberals have absolutely no reason to back electoral reform right now.

However, I think Parallel Voting/Mixed Member Majoritarian would be a great system. It's a good compromise and works well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberals have absolutely no reason to back electoral reform right now.

It is strange that the future is so often seen as the present projected forwards, when surely our memories ought to tell us that this is absurd.

The past decade gives the Liberals ample reason to back electoral reform: what proportional representation (for instance) would mean above all else would be a degree of protection from the volatile nature of the Canadian electorate. As such over the long run it is their best hope of returning to their traditional status as a semi-permanent party of power...

[Lurker]

Regarding electoral reform, has there been any discussion of implementing the AV/IRV system in Canada? (Australian style)

I presume the Conservatives would be dead set against this, for obvious reasons when looking at the  second choice preferencea of the voters.

[Vosem]

Wouldn't single-member-district IRV be the best system for the Liberals? It would allow them to reap Conservative votes to challenge NDP members and NDP votes to challenge Conservatives. It wouldn't by any means be a permanent Liberal majority, but it does seem like the Liberals would be in a significantly better spot than they're in now.

[MaxQue]

Wouldn't single-member-district IRV be the best system for the Liberals? It would allow them to reap Conservative votes to challenge NDP members and NDP votes to challenge Conservatives. It wouldn't by any means be a permanent Liberal majority, but it does seem like the Liberals would be in a significantly better spot than they're in now.

I personally think that's what they want.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

IRV would hit Bloc worst, I assume?

[2952-0-0]

Trudeau stated he personally prefers IRV, but that he will respect the parliamentary committee however it decides.

At last weekend's NDP conference, delegates spoke strongly for PR instead of IRV, and pointed out that the latter is a transparent plot to turn Canada into a Japan-style one party state.

[DC Al Fine]

IRV would hit Bloc worst, I assume?

I think so, but there hasn't been any Quebec 2nd choice polls released to confirm as far as I know. It's possible that there are some scenarios where they could benefit (soft nationalists disliking Liberals, anti-Muslim sentiment, ABC etc.)

[2952-0-0]

Err, Costa Rica, Australia, Denmark, Slovakia...

Classical liberal parties, but not *Libertarian* parties. There would be room for such a party under PR, but it will have to work hard to distinguish from the Liberal Party.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown finally demotes and suspends MacLaren.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wouldn't single-member-district IRV be the best system for the Liberals? It would allow them to reap Conservative votes to challenge NDP members and NDP votes to challenge Conservatives. It wouldn't by any means be a permanent Liberal majority, but it does seem like the Liberals would be in a significantly better spot than they're in now.

Short term yes, longer term... hmm... you need to be able to guarantee that you'll be at least second in the overwhelming majority of seats for the system to do you any good, else you get ratfycked as badly as by FPTP second prefs or no.

[RogueBeaver]

Deja vu all over again: BMD under consideration. Believe acceptance if seen, and given last time count me skeptical. Politics would be easy though, if Justin doesn't mind pissing off the soft left.

[Simfan34]

Hopefully Brown refuses to sign this asshole's nomination papers. Problem solved.

PC can't afford to upset the Ontario Landowners Association. They are the reason John Tory lost his by-election and they are quite powerful in rural Eastern Ontario.

Such a thing exists? Sounds like a 19th century throwback.

[RogueBeaver]

Rempel on parliamentary sexism.
No kidding.