Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

The government is putting forward the motion to strike the special committee on electoral reform today. The committee will have 10 members, 6 Libs, 3 Cons and 1 NDP, plus one Bloc and one Green (Elizabeth May) will sit on the committee but won't be able to vote.

Of course, the Liberals having a majority on the committee is highly ironic.  I doubt they will try to push something through unilaterally though.

In addition to electoral reform, they will also be discussing online voting (what a recipe for disaster that would be) and mandatory voting. 

[Vega]

I know the Liberals will be leaning towards AV, though I really hope not. One electoral reform is done everyone is likely to pat themselves on the back and call it a day for many years.

[RogueBeaver]

PMO trying to lighten Mme Grégoire-Trudeau's workload.

[Vega]

PMO trying to lighten Mme Grégoire-Trudeau's workload.

I don't believe any spouses of the PM have had to juggle as much as she has since, well, the elder Trudeau.

[RogueBeaver]

PMO trying to lighten Mme Grégoire-Trudeau's workload.

I don't believe any spouses of the PM have had to juggle as much as she has since, well, the elder Trudeau.

Mila Mulroney did a lot, as did Aline Chrétien. Margaret Trudeau wasn't a huge fan of officialdom, to put it mildly. Mulroney and Chrétien were deeply involved in politics - their husbands' closest advisors - and behind the scenes, played a policy role too.

[2952-0-0]

If the Liberals were truly Machiavellian, they should go with true PR and not AV/IRV. PR would encourage the other two national parties to fragment into niche parties, leaving the Liberals as the only national, big-tent brokerage party. AV/IRV OTOH, still strongly discourages the creation of new parties.

[RogueBeaver]

AB-Insights West: 35/27/22.

Partisan advertising being curbed.

Staff hiring process under scrutiny.

[RogueBeaver]

Before his defeat, Harper had been hatching a provincial wing of the federal party. Plan isn't quite dead, since the federal party is giving Wildrose and the Progs 2 years to find a solution. If not, they'll move in.

[DC Al Fine]

If the Liberals were truly Machiavellian, they should go with true PR and not AV/IRV. PR would encourage the other two national parties to fragment into niche parties, leaving the Liberals as the only national, big-tent brokerage party. AV/IRV OTOH, still strongly discourages the creation of new parties.

If we get PR, I'd very much like the threshold to be low, say 1-2%. It'd be interesting to see some of the more active fringe parties (Socons, Commies, Libertarians) win seats.

[DC Al Fine]

There's no reason why Alberta shouldn't have two right wing parties. No need to go back to decades of one party rule.

AB-Insights West: 35/27/22.

Well, yeah this isn't 1990's Ontario, so it's not like a divided right can't win, especially if the consolidated progressive vote is stuck below 30%.

I'm kind of surprised the feds are getting involved in this TBH. Given the weakness of PC vote distribution and lack of raison d'etre outside government, a modest swing against them could reduce them to a handful of seats next time.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau toured Fort Mac, promised extended EI benefits for several Western regions and all necessary assistance.

BC Grit election prep well underway.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair will retire in 2019.

[Hatman 🍁]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

[Lotuslander]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

At this point, ~ one year out from the 2013 BC election, Ipsos-Reid had the BC NDP leading by an astounding 19%!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5659

As for Ipsos-Reid during the 2014 ON election, their last opinion poll pegged the ONDP at 30% - actual was 23.8%.

My main point? Ipsos-Reid and other opt-in online panel pollsters always overestimate the NDP vote. Both Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid (also opt-in online) had similar 8%-9% BC NDP leads in their last day polls the day prior to the May, 2013 BC election.

Opt-in online and IVR are just cheap polling junk. Give me a "gold-standard" CATI poll any day of the week.

[RogueBeaver]

Transgender law will be tabled tomorrow.

Forum: 52/29/11. Justin at 57% approval.

[Hatman 🍁]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

At this point, ~ one year out from the 2013 BC election, Ipsos-Reid had the BC NDP leading by an astounding 19%!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5659

As for Ipsos-Reid during the 2014 ON election, their last opinion poll pegged the ONDP at 30% - actual was 23.8%.

My main point? Ipsos-Reid and other opt-in online panel pollsters always overestimate the NDP vote. Both Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid (also opt-in online) had similar 8%-9% BC NDP leads in their last day polls the day prior to the May, 2013 BC election.

Opt-in online and IVR are just cheap polling junk. Give me a "gold-standard" CATI poll any day of the week.

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

[Lotuslander]

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er!

[Hatman 🍁]

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er!

Howabout the Insights West poll that was posted on this very thread on the previous page? Howabout every other poll published since January 2014?

[Zioneer]

So what are the electoral reform proposals being looked at, and beyond the letters (IRV, MMP, etc), what exactly do they mean?

[RogueBeaver]

They haven't mentioned anything specific, but IRV is their likeliest option, reading between the lines.

[Hatman 🍁]

I disagree with that assessment. The Liberals would prefer it of course, but no other party would back them on it, so it would look bad if they pushed for a system that only they support.

What is most likely to happen is not much. The Liberals won't pursue IRV without another party supporting, so they will drop the issue, as most other systems would require boundary changes (see my thread) or increasing the size of parliament, and they would not likely do that. My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

[Vega]

My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

May I ask why you are so opposed to the idea? Do you think it's going to be compromised or something?

[Hatman 🍁]

My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

May I ask why you are so opposed to the idea? Do you think it's going to be compromised or something?

Yeah, it's always a possibility. This is a good video that explains why it's a bad idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI

[RogueBeaver]

No rush to bring back the per-vote subsidy.