Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[politicallefty]

No surprises in Abacus social issue polling.

I think it's pretty interesting that there are no differences between the US and Canada as to the acceptability of the death penalty. I know that many Western countries that have abolished the death penalty still retain general public support in the 50-60% range, but I'm still rather surprised that our two countries are so close as to the moral acceptability.

I'm also surprised that both the US and Canada are so strongly opposed to human cloning. Apart from religious reasons (and even those are debatable), so long as there are proper regulations in place, I don't understand why it's so strongly considered to be immoral.

Overall, I wish there were at least regional breakdowns as to this polling. Considering they're social issues, I'm sure Quebec is pulling Canada to the left and the South is pulling the US to the right. I have to wonder if the US without the South might actually be to the left on many social issues compared to Canada without Quebec. (Also, looking at the poll on pornography, Canadians are probably fairly more honest overall than Americans.)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

(Also, looking at the poll on pornography, Canadians are probably fairly more honest overall than Americans.)

It's dishonest to believe that something you do is immoral?

[DC Al Fine]

No surprises in Abacus social issue polling.

Well that confirms my guess that ~20-25% of Tories are socons. Also, I wish they had thrown in a few economic morality questions. Those might have shown a bit more of a divide between the Liberals and NDP.

(Also, looking at the poll on pornography, Canadians are probably fairly more honest overall than Americans.)

It's dishonest to believe that something you do is immoral?

Agreed

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau visited Auschwitz before heading to Ukraine.

Forum:52/28/10. Almost a reverse 1958.

Brown woos Northern Ontario.

[DC Al Fine]

RB, Obviously it's really early days, and if the Chretien era is any guide to the future, Trudeau's margins will narrow closer to the election. However it's still possible the Liberals could cruise at these levels right through the 2019 election, particularly if the NDP doesn't get their act together. At what point would you start worrying if the Liberals continue to get 45-52% in the polls?

[2952-0-0]

If we get a PR-based electoral system, *and* the NDP moves left, then I think we'll see many conservatives strategically voting Liberal to grant them a majority.

[RogueBeaver]

I'll start worrying in 18 months.

[RogueBeaver]

It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Predicting the outcome of an election 4 years before is always a terrible idea.

[DC Al Fine]

Predicting the outcome of an election 4 years before is always a terrible idea.

Especially in Canada, what with our habit of 25% swings.

[Hatman 🍁]

It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

lol @ bringing up Nikki Ashton for no reason.

[RogueBeaver]

Polls: voters want an electoral reform referendum.

Hmm: senior Grit apparatchik likes preferential ballot.

Trudeau signed a Ukrainian FTA today.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It seems likely the Liberals will win the next election. Conservatives at the earliest may have a chance of forming government in 2023.

In January 2012, there was serious talk whether the Liberal Party would become a permanent third party like its British cousin. Hell, they were polling in 3rd last summer.

Yeah, but the Liberals have more built-in advantages than the CPC. The ability to pretend to be many things at once is a huge asset. And the only thing that was holding them back during their last slump was an apparent loss of credibility thanks a combination of poor leadership for almost a decade and the NDP projecting strength. The likes of Nikki Ashton won't be able to help make the NDP look like a serious party, and Trudeau will be a popular progressive/centrist incumbent.

Hell, Justin has the potential to beat Laurier's record as longest-serving consecutive prime minister... especially if we get some kind of preferential voting. It's a bit sad, really. But I doubt I'll have very compelling reasons to vote against him myself.

lol @ bringing up Nikki Ashton for no reason.

There's a very good reason. She exemplifies the generally low calibre of the candidates who will be vying to replace Mulcair. It may not actually be her, but if you can convincingly find me a potential prime minister in the bunch I'll re-evaluate. I don't think you can.

So honestly, I stand by my assertion that the fundamentals are extremely favourable for the Liberal Party. And yes, when I say that I do mean for years and years to come.

[RogueBeaver]

Hagrid, do you think Julian, Boulerice or Angus are "low-quality?"

[MaxQue]

Hagrid, do you think Julian, Boulerice or Angus are "low-quality?"

Angus still doesn't speak French, as far as I know.

[Vega]

The NDP will take losses in Quebec no matter if the federal leader speaks French or not, and him learning is certainly not out of the question.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nikki Ashton will not win, so it's plain ol' trolling to bring up her name. Might as well keep talking about Brad Trost for leader of the Conservatives. But that would be intellectually dishonest.

RB is right re Julian and Boulerice. I also keep mentioning Jagmeet Singh as well as a potential candidate. The NDP has some strong leadership potentials, they're just not household names yet.

[RogueBeaver]

AB-Insights West: 35/27/22.

ON-Forum: 42/35/17.

[136or142]

Nikki Ashton will not win, so it's plain ol' trolling to bring up her name. Might as well keep talking about Brad Trost for leader of the Conservatives. But that would be intellectually dishonest.

RB is right re Julian and Boulerice. I also keep mentioning Jagmeet Singh as well as a potential candidate. The NDP has some strong leadership potentials, they're just not household names yet.

I agree Nikki Ashton won't win, but I wouldn't discount Niki Ashton.

[Boston Bread]

Grenier: NDP won the First Nations reservation vote in 2015
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-on-reserve-voting-2015-1.3677098

[Hatman 🍁]

Headline "NDP still won the First Nations vote " is misleading, but what else to expect from Grenier? Article is about the reserve vote. I suspect the urban First Nations vote was more Liberal (look at Winnipeg Centre for example).

[136or142]

Headline "NDP still won the First Nations vote " is misleading, but what else to expect from Grenier? Article is about the reserve vote. I suspect the urban First Nations vote was more Liberal (look at Winnipeg Centre for example).

I don't think Grenier can be blamed for that as most of the time (if not all of the time) the writer of the article doesn't write the headline.  Maybe that's just for newspapers and not for television websites though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe; but I'll take any excuse to complain about him

[RogueBeaver]

Dion replaces 20+ ambassadors while Philpott negotiates a new health accord.