Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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  Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
#1
Absolutely they are done like dinner
 
#2
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb
 
#3
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme
 
#4
NDP will definitely win
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 188638 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #850 on: March 08, 2017, 05:32:21 AM »

Budget 2 weeks from tomorrow will focus on skills training and needless to say there's a political strategy too.

Will be interesting to see how many tax credits are scaled back or axed completely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #851 on: March 13, 2017, 07:52:39 AM »

Traditional mid-mandate shuffle/Throne Speech might happen later this year.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #852 on: March 14, 2017, 04:31:33 PM »

Quarterly Atlantic Canada poll is out.

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 44% (-12)
PC: 28% (+8)
NDP: 23% (+4)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 51% (-1)
PC: 30% (nc)
NDP: 12% (+5)
Green: 5% (-4)

Newfoundland
PC: 39% (+5)
Liberal: 33% (-9)
NDP: 26% (+4)

PEI
Liberal: 48% (+2)
Green: 26%! (+4)
PC: 19% (-6)
NDP: 7% (nc)

NS Liberals are down largely due to labour strife with the teacher's union. Newfoundland Liberals are in 2nd place, probably due to their massive austerity budgets... and holy cow the Greens are in 2nd place in PEI!
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Poirot
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« Reply #853 on: March 14, 2017, 10:02:57 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2017, 09:26:30 PM by Poirot »

Québec Solidaire has had 2000 membership request on the net since Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois made his announcement a few days ago.
 
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201703/13/01-5078171-gabriel-nadeau-dubois-a-quebec-solidaire-2000-nouveaux-militants.php

He is also running to be male spokesperson. He rails against the political class of the last 30 years. He wants to grow the party outside Montreal. He is open to unite with Option Nationale.

Will be watching the size of bump in the polls after the media attention and if it divides the opposition vote to the Liberals even more.

Update: it is now 4,000 in 5 days. They had 10,000 members before.
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« Reply #854 on: March 14, 2017, 11:28:04 PM »

Quarterly Atlantic Canada poll is out.

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 44% (-12)
PC: 28% (+8)
NDP: 23% (+4)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 51% (-1)
PC: 30% (nc)
NDP: 12% (+5)
Green: 5% (-4)

Newfoundland
PC: 39% (+5)
Liberal: 33% (-9)
NDP: 26% (+4)

PEI
Liberal: 48% (+2)
Green: 26%! (+4)
PC: 19% (-6)
NDP: 7% (nc)

NS Liberals are down largely due to labour strife with the teacher's union. Newfoundland Liberals are in 2nd place, probably due to their massive austerity budgets... and holy cow the Greens are in 2nd place in PEI!

strange Green to NDP swing in NB, considering Cardy left the party.

The Greens in 2nd place in PEI doesn't surprise me. Their leader is very popular, and showed leadership during the electoral reform debate.
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Poirot
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« Reply #855 on: March 18, 2017, 08:57:25 PM »

Will be watching the size of bump in the polls after the media attention and if it divides the opposition vote to the Liberals even more.

Québec Solidaire has a 5 point boost compared to the January Léger poll. PQ minus 4. Makes the PLQ in comfortable position. Full results of the poll. http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/201703181fr.pdf

Party % (% francophone vote)

PLQ 34% (22)
PQ 25% (31)
CAQ 22% (25)
QS 14% (17)
Conservateur 2% (2)
Vert 1% (1)

63% would like a change in government but when asked who represents change the most, it's even between CAQ, PQ and QS with about 25% for each.

32% wish for an electoral alliance betwwen PQ and QS, 36% against. PQ voters are the most in favor, 73% are for, 9% against. QS voters are 43% for, 26% against. 

There is an anti-politics sentiment. 50% agree in some form with the statement We must get rid of the politics class who governed the last 30 years because it betrayed Quebec. 37% disagree.

46% would prefer a new politician who represents change while 41% would choose an experienced politician who knows how government works.     
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UWS
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« Reply #856 on: March 20, 2017, 11:25:50 AM »

Recently, in Netherlands, Geert Wilders, leader of the Party of Freedom (far-right) lost the 2017 Dutch elections to incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte while he had a decent chance to win.

According to a recent poll, Donald Trump's approval rating hit a new low : only 37 % of Americans approve his job performance as President.

In France, recent polls show that Emmanuel Macron is likely to be qualified for the second round against Marine Le Pen and in this round he would receive 60 % of the vote over Le Pen's 40 %.

So, could all these populist failures combined together doom Kevin O'Leary (considered as the Canadian Trump) during the 2017 Conservative Party of Canada Leadership election?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #857 on: March 20, 2017, 01:58:14 PM »

I would say no. Elections aren't independent events - there is overspill over borders - but it isn't as simplistic as that. Especially as O'Leary isn't really that much like Wilders or Le Pen or even Trump (beyond the superficial similarities).
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« Reply #858 on: March 20, 2017, 02:33:16 PM »

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/lisa-raitt-bernier-oleary-voter-fraud-1.4032482

Leadership race now a circular firing squad, even without the microwaved Trumpism.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #859 on: March 20, 2017, 05:25:55 PM »

Airport privatization won't be in the budget.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #860 on: March 22, 2017, 08:14:59 PM »

CBC budget roundup.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #861 on: March 28, 2017, 09:01:26 AM »

Would be nice to see a provincial poll come out of Saskatchewan. The budget was very unpopular with both city and rural folk, and I wouldn't be surprised to see if the Sask Party's 30 point victory evaporated into a single digit lead in a poll.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #862 on: March 28, 2017, 06:58:36 PM »

Conservatives are ahead in a new poll by 2 points...The Trudeau government has officially failed.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #863 on: March 30, 2017, 04:59:37 AM »

So here's a funny story:

Last night an American conservative writer was on Twitter and mentioned something about Mike Pence was wise not to have dinner alone with women who weren't his wife. He got jumped on for being a sexist and not valuing women's equality... and Kim Campbell of all people came to his defence.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #864 on: March 31, 2017, 07:11:20 AM »

Conservatives are ahead in a new poll by 2 points...The Trudeau government has officially failed.

That's a junk Forum Poll. And even worse, it was paid for by the Toronto Sun. 

Of course, if the Liberals fall in support, the Conservatives will rise against them, even in a relative way, but I've seen nothing that suggests to me the Conservative Party has done anything to appeal to anybody beyond it's 30-33% voter base.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #865 on: March 31, 2017, 07:15:09 AM »

Speaking of Sun Forum polls, latest one claims Wynne's gonna be Campbelled. Like you, Adam, I have trouble taking Forum seriously.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #866 on: March 31, 2017, 07:20:45 AM »

Conservatives are ahead in a new poll by 2 points...The Trudeau government has officially failed.

That's a junk Forum Poll. And even worse, it was paid for by the Toronto Sun. 

Of course, if the Liberals fall in support, the Conservatives will rise against them, even in a relative way, but I've seen nothing that suggests to me the Conservative Party has done anything to appeal to anybody beyond it's 30-33% voter base.

Even if the poll is right, it's meaningless right now. The Liberals were ahead at this point in Harper's second term and we all know how that turned out for them Tongue

If it's March 2019 and the Tories and NDP have their new leaders and the Liberals are still behind in the polls, then I'll get excited, but for now, this is just fool's gold caused by Liberal errors the past few weeks.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #867 on: March 31, 2017, 07:23:17 AM »

Speaking of Sun Forum polls, latest one claims Wynne's gonna be Campbelled. Like you, Adam, I have trouble taking Forum seriously.

Wasn't Forum notorious for overpolling the Liberals until recently? Why the change?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #868 on: March 31, 2017, 07:44:57 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2017, 08:13:19 AM by Adam T »

Speaking of Sun Forum polls, latest one claims Wynne's gonna be Campbelled. Like you, Adam, I have trouble taking Forum seriously.

Wasn't Forum notorious for overpolling the Liberals until recently? Why the change?

Forum also overpolled the NDP at the start of the 2015 federal election campaign.  The reason their polls are junk isn't because they overpoll a party compared to other polls (whether it's because that party or their supporters paid for that poll or not), it's because their polls are notorious for having fairly wide swings in support over short periods of time.

I don't know what Forum's problem is, but they have obvious problems with their methodology.  Without knowing anything about the firm, but having a background in economics, my best guess is that Forum is the low cost/low quality variety of polling firm, which would undoubtedly be especially appealing to media outlets these days.

From Wiki, these are the Forum polls at the beginning of the 2015 election. Again, that they showed higher support for the NDP and lower support for the Conservatives than any other polling firm is secondary.

August 02, Conservative, 28%, NDP 39%, Liberal 25%
August 11, Conservative 28%, NDP 34%, Liberal 27%
August 19, Conservative 29%, NDP 34%, Liberal 28%
August 24, Conservative 23% NDP 40%, Liberal 30%
Sept    01, Conservative 24%, NDP 36%, Liberal 32%

I suppose if you 'smooth out' these polls, the graph wouldn't be that far off, but, even then, the other polls during this period of the election campaign showed no real change in support for the three parties.
So, in this case, we see here the Liberals don't show any wide swing in support, but they show a 7% increase according to Forum during the month of August when the other polling firms showed essentially no increase or decrease for the Liberals.

Of course, it's also impossible to 'smooth out' a single poll.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #869 on: March 31, 2017, 09:37:52 AM »

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #870 on: March 31, 2017, 09:52:14 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2017, 09:56:42 AM by Adam T »

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).

We were mostly discussing the federal Forum polls.

The Ontario Liberals are due to be seriously punished.  Jagmeet Singh for next Ontario NDP leader and Premier!
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #871 on: March 31, 2017, 10:19:44 AM »

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).

We were mostly discussing the federal Forum polls.

The Ontario Liberals are due to be seriously punished.  Jagmeet Singh for next Ontario NDP leader and Premier!

I'd prefer him as federal leader.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #872 on: March 31, 2017, 11:20:08 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2017, 06:10:33 PM by Adam T »

Came here to post the Forum poll, but I see it's already being discussed. Methodology aside, all I can say is LOL.

If these are the numbers heading into the campaign, you can bet the Liberals will erode even further, as left-Liberals swing to the NDP to try and (futilely) stop Patrick Brown. Maybe we can finally win Ottawa Centre back! I can see the NDP is barely ahead of the Liberals in Toronto, so you can tell there is a lot of room for the NDP to grow there, if voters can behind Horwath whose populism is a bit of a hard sell to the Downtown elites (same deal in Ottawa Centre, which is very similar to DT Toronto).

We were mostly discussing the federal Forum polls.

The Ontario Liberals are due to be seriously punished.  Jagmeet Singh for next Ontario NDP leader and Premier!

I'd prefer him as federal leader.

I appreciate that predictions are difficult, especially predictions about the future (I forget who came up with that line) but, not even seriously asking do you think Singh could lead the NDP to power federally.

Which do you think is more likely:
1.That Jagmeet Singh could help the NDP gain a significant amount of seats federally
2.That Jagmeet Singh could become Premier of Ontario

?

Because if he's more likely to become Premier, then he'd clearly be of more use to the NDP provincially than federally.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #873 on: March 31, 2017, 05:52:20 PM »

I think the former is more likely, actually. Hard to see the NDP forming government in this province (not until everyone who was of voting age during the Bob Rae premiership dies off), but making seat gains federally? Not at all unlikely.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #874 on: April 01, 2017, 02:25:49 AM »

I think the former is more likely, actually. Hard to see the NDP forming government in this province (not until everyone who was of voting age during the Bob Rae premiership dies off), but making seat gains federally? Not at all unlikely.

Funny the number of people in Ontario who will never vote NDP again due to the Bob Rae government, but hardly anybody seems to hold the Dalton McGuinty government against either the provincial or federal liberals.
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