Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[brucejoel99]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

Sorry, maybe I'm uninformed lol, but who's the "they" you're referring to??

John Ivison specifically. RB posted an article on the last page by him claiming Chris Hadfield was going to be the next GG.

Ah, okie lolol, thanks

[136or142]

It's Julie Payette. So, at least they got the profession correct.

Sorry, maybe I'm uninformed lol, but who's the "they" you're referring to??

John Ivison specifically. RB posted an article on the last page by him claiming Chris Hadfield was going to be the next GG.

John Ivison can be thoughtful and fair minded, but, at the end of the day he is a conservative partisan hack.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean will run as the centrist candidate? Fits my province's precedent.

[Njall]

Jean will run as the centrist candidate? Fits my province's precedent.

Interesting column, but I'm skeptical about Jean running an actual centrist campaign. If he did, it would be a losing strategy, as he'd likely alienate many from what is arguably his base, and his WRP background would make it tougher for a lot of moderates to stomach voting for him.

[RogueBeaver]

Braid says a Wildrose splinter is quite plausible. For now Red malcontents grouping around AP.

[136or142]

First poll on Federal politics since the Khadr settlement.  From Nanos weekly tracking

Liberals: 40% +3
Conservatives: 33% +3
NDP: 14% -3
Green 6% -?

https://twitter.com/niknanos/status/885921613757255680

This isn't too much of a surprise to me.  

I think:
1.The Liberals have regained some of the 'left wing' credentials by having the courage to settle with Khadr.  This explains the Liberal increase and the NDP decrease (caveat of reading too much into small shifts in support based on any poll let alone a tracking poll.)

2.The Conservatives have firmed up their support, however

While in that one poll 71% of Canadians expressed disapproval with the Khadr settlement, that poll also showed that most Canadians had a more nuanced position (something like 60% also said he should have been tried as a child soldier.)

So, while 71% of Canadians expressed disapproval, it doesn't surprise me that the actual OUTRAGE! over this was from the usual suspects of the 30-33% of conservative Canadians who seem to be OUTRAGED! over nearly everything.  To me, this was also evident from the letters to the editor in newspapers expressing this OUTRAGE! as these letters were pretty much all either idiotic or misinformed, which suggested to me anyway, that they must have been written by conservatives (and Conservatives.)


On the matter of the NDP leadership, I would also suspect that the lower the NDP support is, the more likely Niki Ashton will win the leadership, however, that would also depend on how many left establishment type New Democrats stick with the party and vote in the leadership race (obviously they are all individuals but I would tend to think that union executives including executives of union locals, as well as charity organization managers and executive directors, academics and left leaning professionals would all be less likely to support Niki Ashton.)

[Njall]

Kenney is unsure if all PC MLAs will join the new UCP caucus.

[Njall]

PC Leadership financial disclosures are out. These only cover donations after the official start of the campaign period (so not donations that went to the Unite Alberta PAC), but these numbers show that Kenney spent $1.5 million to win the leadership, while Starke spent just under $200K, and Khan and Nelson spent around $50K each.

[RogueBeaver]

95% YES. Now awaiting Team Kenney.

[RogueBeaver]

95% YES. End of the beginning.

[MaxQue]

Suspiciously high. Kenney and Jean probably cooked up numbers.

[brucejoel99]

Unification approved by 95.4% of Wildrose members, w/ 24,598 eligible Wildrosers casting a ballot, a voter turnout of 57.7%: 23,466 voted yes & 1,132 voted no.

PCs voted 95% for unification w/ Wildrose, w/ a total of 27,060 PC members voting, equating to 55% of those eligible to cast a ballot. 25,692 voted yes. 1,344 voted no. 24 spoiled their ballots.

It's happening.

[brucejoel99]

Kenney seems to think that WR + PC = automatic power.

He was involved in the PC/CA merger in '04. He should know better.

[MaxQue]

I don't see Albertans winning there. A mix of Jean far-right ideas and PC corruption.

[Hatman 🍁]

A very sad for Alberta, indeed.

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

[DC Al Fine]

A few comments for the folks salty about the merger:

Suspiciously high. Kenney and Jean probably cooked up numbers.

Citation?

Kenney seems to think that WR + PC = automatic power.

He was involved in the PC/CA merger in '04. He should know better.

That's a bit revisionist:

2000 election: Alliance + PC = 37.7%
2003 polls: Alliance + PC = ~28%

2015 election: Wildrose + PC= 52.0%
2017 polls: Wildrose + PC = ~66%

Before Adscam broke, Unite the Right was all about being avoiding being slaughtered by the Liberals. UCP would have to choke way worse than the '04 Tories did to lose the next election.

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

The first sentence is an interesting prediction. The second sentence is like saying water is wet

[Hatman 🍁]

A few comments for the folks salty about the merger:

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

The first sentence is an interesting prediction. The second sentence is like saying water is wet

True. Just trying to console myself. It will probably take a few terms in power for there to be enough anger for a new party.

I must say, the ability for conservatives to unite and find common ground is amazing. I wish the left could do the same.

[brucejoel99]

A few comments for the folks salty about the merger:

Kenney seems to think that WR + PC = automatic power.

He was involved in the PC/CA merger in '04. He should know better.

That's a bit revisionist:

2000 election: Alliance + PC = 37.7%
2003 polls: Alliance + PC = ~28%

2015 election: Wildrose + PC= 52.0%
2017 polls: Wildrose + PC = ~66%

Before Adscam broke, Unite the Right was all about being avoiding being slaughtered by the Liberals. UCP would have to choke way worse than the '04 Tories did to lose the next election.

Yeah, true. Even if similar numbers abandon the new merged party (about 20%), that's still enough to stay even w/ the NDP at about 40-45%. That's when all that NDP vote locked up in Edmonton becomes a problem, & that's just assuming they stay the same. The UCP's on much better footing, w/out a shadow of a doubt.

To be fair, though: even though the UCP's goal is to replicate provincially what Harper & MacKay did in '03 when their parties merged to form the Conservatives, while their plan worked out, the newly formed party wasn't ready for the '04 election, allowing Martin's Liberals to get re-elected. It took Harper 2 more years for his party to win a minority gov't. So just based on that playbook, it illustrates some of the difficulties.

All that can be said is that we shall see what happens to the UCP come 2019 lol

[RogueBeaver]

Party was barely ready, but a series of tactical errors cost Harper that election. Also cost him majorities in '06/'08.

[Njall]

As he had previously hinted, Vermilion-Lloydminster MLA Richard Starke will not be joining the UCP caucus.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Party was barely ready, but a series of tactical errors cost Harper that election. Also cost him majorities in '06/'08.

Why did they give Harper a second chance after that humiliating 2004 defeat? Mulclair got turfed out after one loss, as did Dion,and Ignatieff.

[brucejoel99]

Party was barely ready, but a series of tactical errors cost Harper that election. Also cost him majorities in '06/'08.

Why did they give Harper a second chance after that humiliating 2004 defeat? Mulclair got turfed out after one loss, as did Dion,and Ignatieff.

B/c they still credited him w/ having been able to bring the PC Party & Alliance together (however precariously) in a short time to fight a (relatively) close election.

[DC Al Fine]

A few comments for the folks salty about the merger:

The right will break up again, mark my words. Even if it takes a few decades.

The first sentence is an interesting prediction. The second sentence is like saying water is wet

True. Just trying to console myself. It will probably take a few terms in power for there to be enough anger for a new party.

I must say, the ability for conservatives to unite and find common ground is amazing. I wish the left could do the same.

Well to be fair, ~ 2/3 of the population is opposed to our politics in a way that's quite different from Liberal/NDP fights. It forces a sort of ecumenism of the trenches.

[JoeyOCanada]

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

[Hatman 🍁]

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"