Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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  Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II
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Poll
Question: Does uniting the right in Alberta mean the NDP is toast next election?
#1
Absolutely they are done like dinner
 
#2
NDP still might win, but will be a steep hill to climb
 
#3
NDP will likely win, UCP too extreme
 
#4
NDP will definitely win
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II  (Read 188622 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1000 on: July 28, 2017, 07:06:53 PM »

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"

Oh FFS
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1001 on: July 28, 2017, 07:18:50 PM »

What do people think of Don Pittis? I can't decide if I like or dislike him.
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Zyzz
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« Reply #1002 on: July 28, 2017, 07:38:26 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2017, 07:41:28 PM by Zyzz »

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"

Oh FFS

The Situation back in the Jersey Shore days bragged that he 'brought home a girl from Canadia'.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
CommanderClash
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« Reply #1003 on: July 30, 2017, 04:57:29 PM »

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"

Oh FFS

The Situation back in the Jersey Shore days bragged that he 'brought home a girl from Canadia'.

Mike and Justin probably have comparable IQs.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1004 on: July 31, 2017, 07:50:09 PM »

Mainstreet-ON: 50/31/15... in 416! Tories even lead in the downtown core. Wonder what the seat count looks like.
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136or142
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« Reply #1005 on: July 31, 2017, 11:35:36 PM »

Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"

Oh FFS

The Situation back in the Jersey Shore days bragged that he 'brought home a girl from Canadia'.

Mike and Justin probably have comparable IQs.

I'd take Prime Minister Justin Trudeau over Scheer Stupidity any day.
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Njall
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« Reply #1006 on: August 01, 2017, 01:26:09 PM »

Mainstreet Alberta Provincial Poll:

UCP numbers are compared to previous WRP+PC numbers.

Topline numbers (change from April 2017):
UCP: 57% (-9)
NDP: 29% (+5)
AP: 9% (+4)
ALP: 4% (-1)

Including Undecideds (change from April 2017):
UCP: 43% (-14)
NDP: 21% (no change)
AP: 7% (+3)
ALP: 3% (-1)
Undecided: 27% (+12)

Also of note, the Alberta party is now polling at double digits (10% including undecideds and 14% decided and leaning) in Calgary. As well, 53% of respondents aged 18-34, including undecideds (and 67% decided and leaning) are supposedly supporting the UCP. I seriously doubt we'd actually see that latter result in an election though.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1007 on: August 02, 2017, 10:06:58 AM »

Caroline Mulroney will be the next MPP for York-Simcoe.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #1008 on: August 02, 2017, 10:23:27 AM »


Now there's a prediction I take no issue with Wink (providing that she actually wins the nomination)
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #1009 on: August 02, 2017, 11:45:13 AM »

Mainstreet-ON: 50/31/15... in 416! Tories even lead in the downtown core. Wonder what the seat count looks like.

JFC. She's so friggin' selfish. For the sake of the future of the province, please resign.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1010 on: August 03, 2017, 04:16:10 AM »

Mainstreet-ON: 50/31/15... in 416! Tories even lead in the downtown core. Wonder what the seat count looks like.

JFC. She's so friggin' selfish. For the sake of the future of the province, please resign.

Wouldn't it be more selfish to make some poor Liberal play Kim Campbell?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1011 on: August 10, 2017, 11:09:21 AM »

Brad Wall is retiring from politics.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1012 on: August 10, 2017, 10:25:57 PM »

At the moment it seems progressive politics really dominates the country.  Asides from Manitoba and Saskatchewan and perhaps Quebec, it is mostly centre-left parties in power.  Do you think this is a blip or part of a larger trend.  The polls suggest Ontario and Alberta will swing rightward next provincial election but some are skeptical and with the BC NDP just forming government albeit narrowly losing the popular vote and seat count it is anyone's guess what happens there.  Likewise neither Brad Wall (who is retiring) or Brian Pallister seem massively popular, but not massively unpopular either so possible either but more likely in Saskatchewan than Manitoba they swing leftward next election.  Federal is still over 2 years away, but unless Trudeau does something really stupid or Andrew Scheer really catches fire in the campaign I suspect the Liberals will get back in, just a question if it is a majority or minority (note they only need to lose 15 seats to lose their majority so a very small swing to either NDP or Tories would do this).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1013 on: August 11, 2017, 05:05:58 AM »

At the moment it seems progressive politics really dominates the country.  Asides from Manitoba and Saskatchewan and perhaps Quebec, it is mostly centre-left parties in power.  Do you think this is a blip or part of a larger trend.  The polls suggest Ontario and Alberta will swing rightward next provincial election but some are skeptical and with the BC NDP just forming government albeit narrowly losing the popular vote and seat count it is anyone's guess what happens there.  Likewise neither Brad Wall (who is retiring) or Brian Pallister seem massively popular, but not massively unpopular either so possible either but more likely in Saskatchewan than Manitoba they swing leftward next election.  Federal is still over 2 years away, but unless Trudeau does something really stupid or Andrew Scheer really catches fire in the campaign I suspect the Liberals will get back in, just a question if it is a majority or minority (note they only need to lose 15 seats to lose their majority so a very small swing to either NDP or Tories would do this).

I agree that the country as a whole has moved left compared to ten years ago, but the provincial results are more a function of the Trudeau government being < two years old. Provincial governments tend to go the opposite of federal governments over time. Over half the provincial governments were governed by the right when Harper came to power, but that dwindled to just BC and SK by the time Trudeau won. Another good example is the Liberals controlling zero provincial governments from 1978-1985, and then provincially winning basically as soon as the Tories got power federally. I expect the Tories will be doing a lot better provincially in five years.

Also, this is a minor quibble, but the Nova Scotia Liberals have run to the right of the Tories the past two elections, so I guess you could call them the "conservative" party right now.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1014 on: August 11, 2017, 12:43:01 PM »

At the moment it seems progressive politics really dominates the country.  Asides from Manitoba and Saskatchewan and perhaps Quebec, it is mostly centre-left parties in power.  Do you think this is a blip or part of a larger trend.  The polls suggest Ontario and Alberta will swing rightward next provincial election but some are skeptical and with the BC NDP just forming government albeit narrowly losing the popular vote and seat count it is anyone's guess what happens there.  Likewise neither Brad Wall (who is retiring) or Brian Pallister seem massively popular, but not massively unpopular either so possible either but more likely in Saskatchewan than Manitoba they swing leftward next election.  Federal is still over 2 years away, but unless Trudeau does something really stupid or Andrew Scheer really catches fire in the campaign I suspect the Liberals will get back in, just a question if it is a majority or minority (note they only need to lose 15 seats to lose their majority so a very small swing to either NDP or Tories would do this).

I agree that the country as a whole has moved left compared to ten years ago, but the provincial results are more a function of the Trudeau government being < two years old. Provincial governments tend to go the opposite of federal governments over time. Over half the provincial governments were governed by the right when Harper came to power, but that dwindled to just BC and SK by the time Trudeau won. Another good example is the Liberals controlling zero provincial governments from 1978-1985, and then provincially winning basically as soon as the Tories got power federally. I expect the Tories will be doing a lot better provincially in five years.

Also, this is a minor quibble, but the Nova Scotia Liberals have run to the right of the Tories the past two elections, so I guess you could call them the "conservative" party right now.

That is generally true and I guess using this history that would probably suggest Ontario and Alberta should swing rightward next provincial election and perhaps one or two of the Atlantic provinces will as well.  Still since Trudeau has been elected its been a mixed bag.  Yes Manitoba swung rightward, but Newfoundland, Yukon, and BC all dumped centre-right govenrments since although they didn't do as poorly as earlier polls suggested.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1015 on: August 11, 2017, 12:51:10 PM »

Here in Quebec, we have a close race between 2 centre-right parties.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1016 on: August 11, 2017, 01:48:00 PM »

Here in Quebec, we have a close race between 2 centre-right parties.

True enough, Quebec does seem to be the one place of all asides from Saskatchewan and Manitoba where the right is doing well.  Perhaps being in more dire straits financially is one reason another is unlike much of English Canada the right there is pretty tame, you don't have the strong reactionary right element that you see in many of the parties on the right west of the Ottawa River which I think scares some voters.
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« Reply #1017 on: August 12, 2017, 06:57:26 AM »

I think more to the point, it's a successful time for the Liberal brand rather than "progressive politics". After all, most of the Atlantic Canada liberals are hardly particularly progressive.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1018 on: August 12, 2017, 07:20:43 AM »

I think more to the point, it's a successful time for the Liberal brand rather than "progressive politics". After all, most of the Atlantic Canada liberals are hardly particularly progressive.

Atlantic Canadian Liberals are funny. Federally, they've found great success as the party of Pogey, but they're practically Tories provincially.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1019 on: August 12, 2017, 07:34:38 AM »

Looking through old results, I noticed that the Greens put up great results federally and provincially in Dufferin-Caledon and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the mid 2000's. What was going there? Rural Ontario is not the sort of place where you'd think the Greens would do well.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1020 on: August 12, 2017, 10:30:24 AM »

Looking through old results, I noticed that the Greens put up great results federally and provincially in Dufferin-Caledon and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the mid 2000's. What was going there? Rural Ontario is not the sort of place where you'd think the Greens would do well.

There is a bit of a hippy scene in this part of the province, (or post-hippy, like organic farming, "artisanal" shops, you know what I mean), even if it's a minority under the surface of typical rural conservatism. Mind you, the way the Greens briefly became the "strategic" progressive party in Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound was still kind of weird and I don't entirely understand it; the area isn't that green.

A lot of it has to do with the hilly terrain along the Niagara escarpment which is pretty for tourists but not that great for commercial farming: you can see the idea on a topographic map:

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MaxQue
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« Reply #1021 on: August 12, 2017, 02:02:32 PM »

Looking through old results, I noticed that the Greens put up great results federally and provincially in Dufferin-Caledon and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound in the mid 2000's. What was going there? Rural Ontario is not the sort of place where you'd think the Greens would do well.

There is a bit of a hippy scene in this part of the province, (or post-hippy, like organic farming, "artisanal" shops, you know what I mean), even if it's a minority under the surface of typical rural conservatism. Mind you, the way the Greens briefly became the "strategic" progressive party in Bruce-Grey-Owen-Sound was still kind of weird and I don't entirely understand it; the area isn't that green.

A lot of it has to do with the hilly terrain along the Niagara escarpment which is pretty for tourists but not that great for commercial farming: you can see the idea on a topographic map:



Walkerton is in that area, so running on water protection was popular with voters.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1022 on: August 12, 2017, 11:55:04 PM »

I think more to the point, it's a successful time for the Liberal brand rather than "progressive politics". After all, most of the Atlantic Canada liberals are hardly particularly progressive.

I guess I was thinking on a population weighted basis.  Of the big four provinces which are over 80% of the population, 3 of the 4 (Quebec being the exception) have progressive governments as is our federal government.  Compared to recent governments and in comparison to governments elsewhere in the world Horgan, Notley, Wynne, and Trudeau while not Corbyn type left wing definitely sit to the left of most leaders we've had since the mid 90s and most OECD leaders.  Now to be fair in continental Europe most are grand coalitions so cross county comparisons are a bit difficult and although Trudeau is often referred to as one of the more progressive leaders on earth at the moment elsewhere in the world it could perhaps be circumstance in his case, otherwise if he were leader in just about any other Western country its quite possible he would win and likewise if Canada had the same leaders as you do in the upcoming German election or recent British election Merkel would likely win and May probably although not for certain would beat Corbyn in Canada but all speculation.  I also though think when you look at each one there is a definite trend to the left.  Yes maybe it is waning a bit since 2015 as in the provincial elections since the right has done a bit better, either winning (in Manitoba and Saskatchewan or coming reasonably close in Yukon, BC, and Nova Scotia and yes I understand some would argue in fact the NS Liberals are more to the right of the Nova Scotia PCs so fair point).
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« Reply #1023 on: August 15, 2017, 11:35:28 AM »

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1024 on: August 15, 2017, 01:32:45 PM »

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.

While a bit off topic, has your firm done or will be doing polling in Alberta post merger as well as the upcoming Ontario election.  In the Election predictions site I gave mine so would be interested if that is similar to what your numbers show or not.
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