Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[RogueBeaver]

Gonna be a busy fall.

[RogueBeaver]

Judy Foote is resigning from Cabinet, will quit politics by year's end. O'Regan (one of my favourite Grits) will replace her in Cabinet, unclear whether he'll take Public Works or a whole mini-shuffle to maintain gender balance.

[Hatman 🍁]

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.

While a bit off topic, has your firm done or will be doing polling in Alberta post merger as well as the upcoming Ontario election.  In the Election predictions site I gave mine so would be interested if that is similar to what your numbers show or not.

We'll be doing plenty of polling, I'm sure. What election prediction site are you referring to?

[mileslunn]

I am referring to Election predictions on this site.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0

[Hatman 🍁]

I am referring to Election predictions on this site.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0

Oh, I didn't see that! Thanks.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger poll on French Language Charter & horse races: Francophones want signage & workplace rules tightened & English CEGEP access loosened. Generation gap unsurprising, though usual warning about tiny sample sizes. Provincial: 32/28/22/12. Federal: 43/19/16/15. Gonna be a fun leadership review for Lisée this fall, though Cloutier or Hivon wouldn't be doing much better IMO.

[mileslunn]

Leger poll on French Language Charter & horse races: Francophones want signage & workplace rules tightened & English CEGEP access loosened. Generation gap unsurprising, though usual warning about tiny sample sizes. Provincial: 32/28/22/12. Federal: 43/19/16/15. Gonna be a fun leadership review for Lisée this fall, though Cloutier or Hivon wouldn't be doing much better IMO.

I should start a thread for the Quebec election, but at this point since the Quebec Liberals are heavily skewed to non-Francophones, do you think there is a risk of them winning the popular vote but losing in seats.  Also is the high CAQ numbers just a flash in the pan or do you think they could actually win next year?

Federal numbers not surprising and in fact if an election were held today I suspect you would see similar seat counts for the Liberals with them losing around 20 seats in English Canada (mostly Ontario) while picking up 20 seats in Quebec.  Off course a lot can happen in the next two years but if Trudeau stays well ahead in Quebec he should win in 2019 even if he takes a hit in English Canada.  After all in 1972, 1974, and 1980, the PCs won more seats in English Canada than the Liberals although only a plurality in 1974 and 1980 but he won due to nearly sweeping Quebec, so perhaps the Liberals are re-asserting their dominance of Quebec.

[mileslunn]

Based on the recent merger of the PCs and Wildrose, do you guys believe the NDP still has a chance in 2019 or are they done?  I think the odds of the NDP winning again are extremely low, but I think if everything falls into place they might be able to squeeze out a narrow win although in popular vote I am near certain the UCP will win it however due to voter efficiency the NDP could lose by as much as 5% and still win more seats.  By regions I see the following

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from the two Lethbridge ridings see a near sweep here.  In many ridings the UCP will likely top 70% and even 80% in some cases

Calgary - Strong advantage UCP and the NDP will probably only hold a few central ridings, but if the UCP is too extreme and the NDP get a strong uptick they may hold the majority of seats.  Also Alberta Party is strongest here so if they do well whom do they hurt more, former Red Tories who find the new UCP too right wing or former NDP voters who are unhappy with the NDP but cannot stomach the UCP.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, the question is more do they sweep Edmonton or just win the majority of seats here.

I think if Brian Jean is chosen as leader the party will do better in Edmonton than with Jason Kenney.

Also 59.5% voted Conservative federally and I suspect the overwhelming majority from this group will support the UCP although maybe not all.

[RogueBeaver]

I could see PV happening but it didn't in 2012 (if it did, <1% like 90s & 2012), when CAQ also was projected to do better than they actually did. CAQ minority is possible but I don't see that as a long-term thing anymore than ADQ in 2007. Legault doesn't have any obvious successor and we're in Year 6 of 2011's promised 10-year commitment. Disagree on English Canada.

[mileslunn]

I could see PV happening but it didn't in 2012 (if it did, <1% like 90s & 2012), when CAQ also was projected to do better than they actually did. CAQ minority is possible but I don't see that as a long-term thing anymore than ADQ in 2007. Legault doesn't have any obvious successor and we're in Year 6 of 2011's promised 10-year commitment. Disagree on English Canada.

Interesting.  On English Canada you think the Liberals will gain seats as while I could see them holding what they have now, they are pretty close to their ceiling.  Not suggesting they will fall behind the Tories although even if they did that doesn't mean they would lose necessarily.  Eric Grenier using most of the polls shows the Tories gaining in Ontario although still finishing behind the Liberals (much of that might be provincial spillover due to unpopularity of the Wynne government) while Atlantic Canada going mostly Liberal with a few Conservative and NDP seats but not many.  I do think though the Liberals would gain seats in Quebec federally.

[RogueBeaver]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

[Njall]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

[mileslunn]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

Considering both Liberal wins were fairly narrow, what is the likelihood of them holding those seats.  On the one hand Calgary is not as conservative as 25 years ago so I could even see the Liberals picking up more, but at the same time it seems the Conservative vote will be a lot more motivated to show up in 2019 than it was in 2015.  Obviously that won't be nearly enough to win nationally, heck the Liberals could still easily win a majority even if they lose both seats in Calgary.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Regan to Veterans Affairs.

[RogueBeaver]

NB's Ginette Taylor gets Health, BC's Carla Qualtrough gets Public Works, Indigenous Affairs gets split into Indigenous Affairs for Philpott and Crown-Indigenous Relations & Northern Affairs for Bennett. Hehr demoted to Sports/Disabilities, O'Regan also gets Associate Defence.

[Njall]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

Considering both Liberal wins were fairly narrow, what is the likelihood of them holding those seats.  On the one hand Calgary is not as conservative as 25 years ago so I could even see the Liberals picking up more, but at the same time it seems the Conservative vote will be a lot more motivated to show up in 2019 than it was in 2015.  Obviously that won't be nearly enough to win nationally, heck the Liberals could still easily win a majority even if they lose both seats in Calgary.

Liberal favourability in Calgary Centre will depend in part on how good or bad the Conservative candidate is (Crockatt was not well-liked), but at the moment I would say that Kent Hehr would be favoured for re-election there. He's personally popular in the area, and progressive voters in Calgary tend to flock to a progressive incumbent, no matter the party, where one exists

The Calgary Skyview area is always tough to predict politically. It was historically the part of Calgary where progressive voters federally overwhelmingly showed a preference for the Liberals (whereas in other parts of the city the vote would be more fractured, such as Calgary Centre in 2011 where the LPC, NDP, and GPC shared 40-45% of the vote). But Darshan Kang's personal popularity in the area always seemed to push the Liberals over the top there, both provincially and federally. So, the Liberals winning here again will likely rely on them being able to recruit a local leader within one of the leading ethnic or religious communities.

The outcome in both ridings will also likely be impacted by the results of the 2019 provincial election. If the UCP proves victorious and immediately begins enacting a hard-right agenda, some voters may react by voting against Conservative candidate federally, especially in areas where the Conservatives aren't incumbents.

[RogueBeaver]

Shadow Cabinet shuffle: Poilievre to Finance, O'Toole to Foreign Affairs, Bernier to ISED. Leitch, Obhrai, Trost, Ritz out. Ritz is expected to announce his retirement soon.

[RogueBeaver]

We've been granting asylum to gay Chechen refugees for the past 3 months, no longer clandestine.

[Kingpoleon]

We've been granting asylum to gay Chechen refugees for the past 3 months, no longer clandestine.

Good! Our mafia sent people in through this system. I won't say anymore, so as not to reveal sensitive information or out the Canadian Ministers.

[RogueBeaver]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

[Hatman 🍁]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

This comes as absolutely no surprise.

[mileslunn]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

This comes as absolutely no surprise.

I heard the Ontario PC's didn't want him.  He would probably help them win Etobicoke North, but we would be a liability in much of the rest of the province.  Also his strong support for Trump and other indiscretions would make him an easy target for OLP attack ads.  I get the impression Brown is trying to play it safe and doesn't want to do anything that might cost the party what should be an easy winneable election.

In terms of mayor, he does have his pockets of strong support but I suspect John Tory will easily beat him as he is reasonably popular.  I also suspect with him running the left won't put up a candidate and will instead throw their support behind John Tory just to keep Doug Ford out of office.

[DC Al Fine]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

This comes as absolutely no surprise.

I heard the Ontario PC's didn't want him.  He would probably help them win Etobicoke North, but we would be a liability in much of the rest of the province.  Also his strong support for Trump and other indiscretions would make him an easy target for OLP attack ads.  I get the impression Brown is trying to play it safe and doesn't want to do anything that might cost the party what should be an easy winneable election.

In terms of mayor, he does have his pockets of strong support but I suspect John Tory will easily beat him as he is reasonably popular.  I also suspect with him running the left won't put up a candidate and will instead throw their support behind John Tory just to keep Doug Ford out of office.

He ought to cruise to reelection regardless of what the left does. An incumbent mayor has to screw it up pretty bad to lose and Tory has already handled Ford and Chow comfortably.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 43/31/15. Breguet's latest projection has 234/84/17/2/1, i.e. Making 1950s Liberalism Great Again. Justin at 55/40 approval. Grits would win 65 seats here. But Tories would keep their seats here, including Lac St. Jean, while as I thought, Boulerice, Brosseau and Laverdiere would be our sole Dipper survivors. Near clean Grit sweep in BC too. Policy-wise, Mainstreet says Grits are winning the tax debate.

[Lachi]

Mainstreet: 43/31/15. Breguet's latest projection has 234/84/17/2/1, i.e. Making 1950s Liberalism Great Again. Justin at 55/40 approval. Grits would win 65 seats here. But Tories would keep their seats here, including Lac St. Jean, while as I thought, Boulerice, Brosseau and Laverdiere would be our sole Dipper survivors. Near clean Grit sweep in BC too. Policy-wise, Mainstreet says Grits are winning the tax debate.

Alberta showing it's stuck in the past federally, as usual...