Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

[mileslunn]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

Agreed.  I think a couple of takeaways are as follows.

1.  Liberals are in good position but hardly an insurmountable lead and certainly not the 20+ like they've had last year.  It wouldn't take that big a swing to be reduced to a minority, although agree as long as they don't do something too stupid they should probably win in 2019, but nothing is 100% certain these days.

2.  Tories have a good solid base are consistently staying north of the 30% mark which gives them a good starting point, but cannot seem to get beyond 33% and until they can find a way to appeal to more swing voters they will be stuck in opposition.  Since Scheer is relatively unknown, how he defines himself and how his opponents define him will be very important.

3.  NDP not great numbers but I suspect they will get somewhat of a bounce once the leader is chosen.  That will at least seat wise help the Tories as any gains would come from the Liberals.  That being said if Singh wins I could see him doing quite well amongst millennials.  The NDP aren't likely to win in 2019 so their best case scenario is reduce the Liberals to a minority and then push through progressive policies that way much like they did 1963-1968 and 1972-1974.

[DC Al Fine]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

Agreed.  I think a couple of takeaways are as follows.

1.  Liberals are in good position but hardly an insurmountable lead and certainly not the 20+ like they've had last year.  It wouldn't take that big a swing to be reduced to a minority, although agree as long as they don't do something too stupid they should probably win in 2019, but nothing is 100% certain these days.

2.  Tories have a good solid base are consistently staying north of the 30% mark which gives them a good starting point, but cannot seem to get beyond 33% and until they can find a way to appeal to more swing voters they will be stuck in opposition.  Since Scheer is relatively unknown, how he defines himself and how his opponents define him will be very important.

Agreed. To put this in perspective, at this point in Chretien's first mandate, the Liberals had a lead of ~35% over their nearest competitor (the Bloc Quebecois), and a ~25% over Reform and the Tories combined. The right had was polling below what the Tories are scoring in 2017. The situation in 2017 is bad for the Tories and good for the Liberals, but the 2019 election is hardly a fait accompli, particularly if the new NDP leader can shave a few points off the Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

On my end, PQ toning down its debate on Francophone access to Anglo CEGEPs. Now just pressuring them to prioritize Anglo needs. They've been kicking this issue around for years.

[mileslunn]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

Agreed.  I think a couple of takeaways are as follows.

1.  Liberals are in good position but hardly an insurmountable lead and certainly not the 20+ like they've had last year.  It wouldn't take that big a swing to be reduced to a minority, although agree as long as they don't do something too stupid they should probably win in 2019, but nothing is 100% certain these days.

2.  Tories have a good solid base are consistently staying north of the 30% mark which gives them a good starting point, but cannot seem to get beyond 33% and until they can find a way to appeal to more swing voters they will be stuck in opposition.  Since Scheer is relatively unknown, how he defines himself and how his opponents define him will be very important.

Agreed. To put this in perspective, at this point in Chretien's first mandate, the Liberals had a lead of ~35% over their nearest competitor (the Bloc Quebecois), and a ~25% over Reform and the Tories combined. The right had was polling below what the Tories are scoring in 2017. The situation in 2017 is bad for the Tories and good for the Liberals, but the 2019 election is hardly a fait accompli, particularly if the new NDP leader can shave a few points off the Liberals.

Good point.  Interestingly enough it always seems the Liberals poll higher in between elections while Tories poll lower so if you look at the normal swing in past elections it would actually put the parties close to tied.  Off course I suspect in the 90s since it was obvious the Liberals would win, many went for their second choice as they wanted some opposition whereas there is no risk in 2019 of the Liberals not having a solid opposition.  In addition prior to Harper, the Tories were quite weak and divided and demoralized whereas now they are pretty united.  The only thing they do have going is if you look at Nanos poll they ask people if you are willing to consider voting for the party and that was 39% would consider voting Tory in 2015 while now it is 47%.  Liberals were at 54% both times so no change, but it did go as high as 64% last year.  So the Tories do have potential to pick up more votes but so far haven't and those might be more people who are willing to switch once they tire of the Liberals which will probably come after 2019.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisée got 93% at his review. Of course if he crashes next year then this means nothing. I remember when Boisclair and Marois were popular.

[RogueBeaver]

NDP MP Pierre Nantel says he might leave the NDP and sit as an indie, losing faith in federalism and NDP's willingness to recognize this province as distinct.

[136or142]

NDP MP Pierre Nantel says he might leave the NDP and sit as an indie, losing faith in federalism and NDP's willingness to recognize this province as distinct.

Pierre Nantel used to be artistic director or something for Cirque Du Soleil.  Hasn't the movie 'It' showed us never trust a clown or a person who works with clowns?   (Sorry)

As to the issue itself, I can't understand why this is such a complicated thing: secularism, oui, enforced secularism, non.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau era cabinet minister Allan MacEachen has died.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Trudeau era cabinet minister Allan MacEachen has died.

"Trudeau era" confused me there for a sec!

[RogueBeaver]

Hebert: Nantel might run for the PQ in a seat-swap with Ouellet, and NDP fading here might revive the Bloc.

[Poirot]

Hebert: Nantel might run for the PQ in a seat-swap with Ouellet, and NDP fading here might revive the Bloc.

Hébert is late on this. I shared it here seven months ago!

In a Longueuil Internet media, NDP Pierre Nantel answered he would be interested in switching to provincial politics. The writer says it would be for the PQ and replacing Martine Ouellet in Vachon could be a possibility. There is no quote from the MP talking about party though.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau era cabinet minister Allan MacEachen has died.

"Trudeau era" confused me there for a sec!

Haha oops

[RogueBeaver]

RIP: Grit MP Arnold Chan (Scarborough-Agincourt) has died at 50.

[mileslunn]

RIP: Grit MP Arnold Chan (Scarborough-Agincourt) has died at 50.

Very sad, such a young age.  In terms of by-elections this should probably stay with the Grits although the Tories surprisingly did better in 2015 than 2011, one of the few ridings this happened but still would be shocked if they picked it up.  Nonetheless at this point probably best to remember him and worry about the by-election later. 

[136or142]

RIP: Grit MP Arnold Chan (Scarborough-Agincourt) has died at 50.

Very sad, such a young age.  In terms of by-elections this should probably stay with the Grits although the Tories surprisingly did better in 2015 than 2011, one of the few ridings this happened but still would be shocked if they picked it up.  Nonetheless at this point probably best to remember him and worry about the by-election later. 

I would assume the Conservatives did better in 2015 in that riding because Chan was already in poor health.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

[136or142]

No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

Not in Richmond, British Columbia.

[mileslunn]

No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

Not in Richmond, British Columbia.

Federally they are, but provincially they are not.  The swing against the Conservatives in Richmond was much less than the province as a whole in the same in the heavy Chinese areas of the GTA.  However it's true provincially the swing against the BC Liberals was quite strong there.  I am guessing unlike in the past where many voted Liberal federally and BC Liberal provincially you are seeing those who vote BC Liberal provincially going over to the Conservatives whereas those who have stayed with the federal Liberals are going over to the BC NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet-QC: 30/26/26/18. PQ recovering from its summer swoon for now, Grits now 3rd (lmao) among Francophones while Lisée's still in grave danger of losing Rosemont. Per Breguet, CAQ's better distribution helps them on seat count. In related news, PSPP is officially running in swingy Prévost. My guess is that Grits get voted out if they don't win a majority.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet-QC: 30/26/26/18. PQ recovering from its summer swoon for now, Grits now 3rd (lmao) among Francophones while Lisée's still in grave danger of losing Rosemont. Per Breguet, CAQ's better distribution helps them on seat count. In related news, PSPP is officially running in swingy Prévost. My guess is that Grits get voted out if they don't win a majority.

Maybe a repeat of 2007 where you had similar seat breakdowns.  Although the Liberals being ahead amongst seniors is probably a good thing is they are most likely to vote and I have found in recent elections polls tend to underestimate PLQ support.  By contrast I find polls tend to overestimate Quebec Solidaire support which skews heavily towards younger voters who are least likely to vote so I would be surprised but not shocked if QS actually got 18%.

[mileslunn]

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.

[DC Al Fine]

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

How were things looking electorally for Jean Chretien halfway through his 1st term in 1995? We're the PC's or  Reform in any reasonable striking distance? I guess things may have looked artificially bad, as this would have been during the lead up to the Quebec independence referendum.

The Chretien era Liberals tended to poll really well (like 50-55%) most of the time before coming down to earth during election campaigns.

[136or142]

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

Yes, this would be a 13% swing from their poll from last month, which is a bit hard to believe, though not actually outside the realm of statistical possibility. 

I don't have any evidence regarding this, but while Forum certainly does have a solid track record of their final election polls which was reported by the one outlet that I read who reported on this poll, I wonder if Forum doesn't spend a great deal more money on their final pre-election survey than they do on their other polls.

I've written before that Forum is perfect for the sensationalist mainstream media:  not only are their polls cheap which means less cost for the media, but they sometimes produce wild swings like this poll, which the media loves to breathlessly report on.  Of course, it also can't be discounted that this poll is accurate.