Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Boston Bread]

Duceppe is quitting tomorrow

Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know...

Mario Beaulieu was the pre-Duceppe leader, and won his seat. I'd consider him a favourite, although admittedly I know nothing about the rest of the BQ caucus. Also, keep in mind that the Bloc vote decreased and they only won more seats because their main competitor, the NDP, collapsed and the Liberal wave was not nearly as strong as the 2011 NDP wave in francophone areas. The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.

[Boston Bread]

Historically, Francophone Quebec has voted as block for one party. This election was the aberration. The BQ MPs mostly won by narrow margins, single digits mostly. Only a modest improvement from the LPC or NDP would be necessary to take them out.

[Boston Bread]

NWT votes in a non-partisan general election today.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/20/n-w-t-voters-faces-tough-choices-in-gloomy-election_n_8609244.html

I don't know much about their issues sadly.

[Boston Bread]

I'm certainly going to hope the Liberals govern left, even if that means the NDP won't have a shot in 2019. They should always try to always stay measurably to the left of the liberals in any situation. Left wing populism, as Hatman said, will get better results than being Liberal lite.

[Boston Bread]

Taking from the Wynne handbook, I see.

[Boston Bread]

Grenier: NDP won the First Nations reservation vote in 2015
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-on-reserve-voting-2015-1.3677098

[Boston Bread]

The Conservative Senate majority won't last for long:
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/09/21/liberals-are-expected-to-appoint-20-new-senators-within-weeks.html

[Boston Bread]

lol Ipsos

Ontario Liberals would win election if held today: http://globalnews.ca/news/2968555/liberal-support-rises-but-ontarians-believe-province-headed-in-wrong-direction-poll/
40 OLP/35 PC/20 NDP

[Boston Bread]

Ah, so the Liberal honeymoon has finally ended. Most of their loss has been to the Conservatives. They'll need to make real accomplishments (the internal trade deal helps, maybe they should start Harper-style national propaganda campaign), and hope O'Leary wins the CPC leadership. They probably already have hours of attack ad footage ready to air.

I believe a recent poll showed O'Leary is the most electable candidate, while Bernier and Leitch did poorly.

[Boston Bread]

Ah, so the Liberal honeymoon has finally ended. Most of their loss has been to the Conservatives. They'll need to make real accomplishments (the internal trade deal helps, maybe they should start Harper-style national propaganda campaign), and hope O'Leary wins the CPC leadership. They probably already have hours of attack ad footage ready to air.

I believe a recent poll showed O'Leary is the most electable candidate, while Bernier and Leitch did poorly.

Most electable or highest name recognition? A lot of those polls are effectively the latter.

This is what I'm referring to. http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/?sf52910041=1

It could be just name recognization, but 37% for O'Leary and 26% for Leitch is a big difference.

[Boston Bread]

That would be a great chart to stick in instinctive America bashers' faces.

Quite so, although it wold confirm the biases of our instinctive Quebec bashers

The mosque monitoring and headscarf bans are particularly worrying. How on earth can we claim to be 'progressive' and want to monitor minority religions and tell them what to wear?!

Tbh I think the regions most ripe for seizure by the populist right is the Atlantic provinces imo.

Didn't that already happen in Toronto though

[Boston Bread]

Shocker poll has the OLP leading with 37% to the PCs 34%: http://www.qpbriefing.com/2017/05/17/ontario-liberals-could-be-on-comeback-trail-a-poll-suggests/

[Boston Bread]

What is more important for QS, separatism or leftism?

Leftism is the impression that I get from them.