Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[mileslunn]

At the moment it seems progressive politics really dominates the country.  Asides from Manitoba and Saskatchewan and perhaps Quebec, it is mostly centre-left parties in power.  Do you think this is a blip or part of a larger trend.  The polls suggest Ontario and Alberta will swing rightward next provincial election but some are skeptical and with the BC NDP just forming government albeit narrowly losing the popular vote and seat count it is anyone's guess what happens there.  Likewise neither Brad Wall (who is retiring) or Brian Pallister seem massively popular, but not massively unpopular either so possible either but more likely in Saskatchewan than Manitoba they swing leftward next election.  Federal is still over 2 years away, but unless Trudeau does something really stupid or Andrew Scheer really catches fire in the campaign I suspect the Liberals will get back in, just a question if it is a majority or minority (note they only need to lose 15 seats to lose their majority so a very small swing to either NDP or Tories would do this).

[mileslunn]

At the moment it seems progressive politics really dominates the country.  Asides from Manitoba and Saskatchewan and perhaps Quebec, it is mostly centre-left parties in power.  Do you think this is a blip or part of a larger trend.  The polls suggest Ontario and Alberta will swing rightward next provincial election but some are skeptical and with the BC NDP just forming government albeit narrowly losing the popular vote and seat count it is anyone's guess what happens there.  Likewise neither Brad Wall (who is retiring) or Brian Pallister seem massively popular, but not massively unpopular either so possible either but more likely in Saskatchewan than Manitoba they swing leftward next election.  Federal is still over 2 years away, but unless Trudeau does something really stupid or Andrew Scheer really catches fire in the campaign I suspect the Liberals will get back in, just a question if it is a majority or minority (note they only need to lose 15 seats to lose their majority so a very small swing to either NDP or Tories would do this).

I agree that the country as a whole has moved left compared to ten years ago, but the provincial results are more a function of the Trudeau government being < two years old. Provincial governments tend to go the opposite of federal governments over time. Over half the provincial governments were governed by the right when Harper came to power, but that dwindled to just BC and SK by the time Trudeau won. Another good example is the Liberals controlling zero provincial governments from 1978-1985, and then provincially winning basically as soon as the Tories got power federally. I expect the Tories will be doing a lot better provincially in five years.

Also, this is a minor quibble, but the Nova Scotia Liberals have run to the right of the Tories the past two elections, so I guess you could call them the "conservative" party right now.

That is generally true and I guess using this history that would probably suggest Ontario and Alberta should swing rightward next provincial election and perhaps one or two of the Atlantic provinces will as well.  Still since Trudeau has been elected its been a mixed bag.  Yes Manitoba swung rightward, but Newfoundland, Yukon, and BC all dumped centre-right govenrments since although they didn't do as poorly as earlier polls suggested.

[mileslunn]

Here in Quebec, we have a close race between 2 centre-right parties.

True enough, Quebec does seem to be the one place of all asides from Saskatchewan and Manitoba where the right is doing well.  Perhaps being in more dire straits financially is one reason another is unlike much of English Canada the right there is pretty tame, you don't have the strong reactionary right element that you see in many of the parties on the right west of the Ottawa River which I think scares some voters.

[mileslunn]

I think more to the point, it's a successful time for the Liberal brand rather than "progressive politics". After all, most of the Atlantic Canada liberals are hardly particularly progressive.

I guess I was thinking on a population weighted basis.  Of the big four provinces which are over 80% of the population, 3 of the 4 (Quebec being the exception) have progressive governments as is our federal government.  Compared to recent governments and in comparison to governments elsewhere in the world Horgan, Notley, Wynne, and Trudeau while not Corbyn type left wing definitely sit to the left of most leaders we've had since the mid 90s and most OECD leaders.  Now to be fair in continental Europe most are grand coalitions so cross county comparisons are a bit difficult and although Trudeau is often referred to as one of the more progressive leaders on earth at the moment elsewhere in the world it could perhaps be circumstance in his case, otherwise if he were leader in just about any other Western country its quite possible he would win and likewise if Canada had the same leaders as you do in the upcoming German election or recent British election Merkel would likely win and May probably although not for certain would beat Corbyn in Canada but all speculation.  I also though think when you look at each one there is a definite trend to the left.  Yes maybe it is waning a bit since 2015 as in the provincial elections since the right has done a bit better, either winning (in Manitoba and Saskatchewan or coming reasonably close in Yukon, BC, and Nova Scotia and yes I understand some would argue in fact the NS Liberals are more to the right of the Nova Scotia PCs so fair point).

[mileslunn]

Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.

While a bit off topic, has your firm done or will be doing polling in Alberta post merger as well as the upcoming Ontario election.  In the Election predictions site I gave mine so would be interested if that is similar to what your numbers show or not.

[mileslunn]

I am referring to Election predictions on this site.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0

[mileslunn]

Leger poll on French Language Charter & horse races: Francophones want signage & workplace rules tightened & English CEGEP access loosened. Generation gap unsurprising, though usual warning about tiny sample sizes. Provincial: 32/28/22/12. Federal: 43/19/16/15. Gonna be a fun leadership review for Lisée this fall, though Cloutier or Hivon wouldn't be doing much better IMO.

I should start a thread for the Quebec election, but at this point since the Quebec Liberals are heavily skewed to non-Francophones, do you think there is a risk of them winning the popular vote but losing in seats.  Also is the high CAQ numbers just a flash in the pan or do you think they could actually win next year?

Federal numbers not surprising and in fact if an election were held today I suspect you would see similar seat counts for the Liberals with them losing around 20 seats in English Canada (mostly Ontario) while picking up 20 seats in Quebec.  Off course a lot can happen in the next two years but if Trudeau stays well ahead in Quebec he should win in 2019 even if he takes a hit in English Canada.  After all in 1972, 1974, and 1980, the PCs won more seats in English Canada than the Liberals although only a plurality in 1974 and 1980 but he won due to nearly sweeping Quebec, so perhaps the Liberals are re-asserting their dominance of Quebec.

[mileslunn]

Based on the recent merger of the PCs and Wildrose, do you guys believe the NDP still has a chance in 2019 or are they done?  I think the odds of the NDP winning again are extremely low, but I think if everything falls into place they might be able to squeeze out a narrow win although in popular vote I am near certain the UCP will win it however due to voter efficiency the NDP could lose by as much as 5% and still win more seats.  By regions I see the following

Rest of Alberta - Massively UCP and asides from the two Lethbridge ridings see a near sweep here.  In many ridings the UCP will likely top 70% and even 80% in some cases

Calgary - Strong advantage UCP and the NDP will probably only hold a few central ridings, but if the UCP is too extreme and the NDP get a strong uptick they may hold the majority of seats.  Also Alberta Party is strongest here so if they do well whom do they hurt more, former Red Tories who find the new UCP too right wing or former NDP voters who are unhappy with the NDP but cannot stomach the UCP.

Edmonton - Should stay largely NDP, the question is more do they sweep Edmonton or just win the majority of seats here.

I think if Brian Jean is chosen as leader the party will do better in Edmonton than with Jason Kenney.

Also 59.5% voted Conservative federally and I suspect the overwhelming majority from this group will support the UCP although maybe not all.

[mileslunn]

I could see PV happening but it didn't in 2012 (if it did, <1% like 90s & 2012), when CAQ also was projected to do better than they actually did. CAQ minority is possible but I don't see that as a long-term thing anymore than ADQ in 2007. Legault doesn't have any obvious successor and we're in Year 6 of 2011's promised 10-year commitment. Disagree on English Canada.

Interesting.  On English Canada you think the Liberals will gain seats as while I could see them holding what they have now, they are pretty close to their ceiling.  Not suggesting they will fall behind the Tories although even if they did that doesn't mean they would lose necessarily.  Eric Grenier using most of the polls shows the Tories gaining in Ontario although still finishing behind the Liberals (much of that might be provincial spillover due to unpopularity of the Wynne government) while Atlantic Canada going mostly Liberal with a few Conservative and NDP seats but not many.  I do think though the Liberals would gain seats in Quebec federally.

[mileslunn]

Grit MP Darshan King will be expelled from caucus this week.

This will be a blow to the Liberals in Northeast Calgary. Kang has, or at least had, a lot of personal popularity in that part of the city, with his 2008 provincial and 2015 federal wins both breaking long conservative streaks in his seats.

Considering both Liberal wins were fairly narrow, what is the likelihood of them holding those seats.  On the one hand Calgary is not as conservative as 25 years ago so I could even see the Liberals picking up more, but at the same time it seems the Conservative vote will be a lot more motivated to show up in 2019 than it was in 2015.  Obviously that won't be nearly enough to win nationally, heck the Liberals could still easily win a majority even if they lose both seats in Calgary.

[mileslunn]

Doug Ford will seek a rematch against John Tory next year.

This comes as absolutely no surprise.

I heard the Ontario PC's didn't want him.  He would probably help them win Etobicoke North, but we would be a liability in much of the rest of the province.  Also his strong support for Trump and other indiscretions would make him an easy target for OLP attack ads.  I get the impression Brown is trying to play it safe and doesn't want to do anything that might cost the party what should be an easy winneable election.

In terms of mayor, he does have his pockets of strong support but I suspect John Tory will easily beat him as he is reasonably popular.  I also suspect with him running the left won't put up a candidate and will instead throw their support behind John Tory just to keep Doug Ford out of office.

[mileslunn]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

Agreed.  I think a couple of takeaways are as follows.

1.  Liberals are in good position but hardly an insurmountable lead and certainly not the 20+ like they've had last year.  It wouldn't take that big a swing to be reduced to a minority, although agree as long as they don't do something too stupid they should probably win in 2019, but nothing is 100% certain these days.

2.  Tories have a good solid base are consistently staying north of the 30% mark which gives them a good starting point, but cannot seem to get beyond 33% and until they can find a way to appeal to more swing voters they will be stuck in opposition.  Since Scheer is relatively unknown, how he defines himself and how his opponents define him will be very important.

3.  NDP not great numbers but I suspect they will get somewhat of a bounce once the leader is chosen.  That will at least seat wise help the Tories as any gains would come from the Liberals.  That being said if Singh wins I could see him doing quite well amongst millennials.  The NDP aren't likely to win in 2019 so their best case scenario is reduce the Liberals to a minority and then push through progressive policies that way much like they did 1963-1968 and 1972-1974.

[mileslunn]

absolutely foolish to be looking at seat projections this soon

Agreed.  I think a couple of takeaways are as follows.

1.  Liberals are in good position but hardly an insurmountable lead and certainly not the 20+ like they've had last year.  It wouldn't take that big a swing to be reduced to a minority, although agree as long as they don't do something too stupid they should probably win in 2019, but nothing is 100% certain these days.

2.  Tories have a good solid base are consistently staying north of the 30% mark which gives them a good starting point, but cannot seem to get beyond 33% and until they can find a way to appeal to more swing voters they will be stuck in opposition.  Since Scheer is relatively unknown, how he defines himself and how his opponents define him will be very important.

Agreed. To put this in perspective, at this point in Chretien's first mandate, the Liberals had a lead of ~35% over their nearest competitor (the Bloc Quebecois), and a ~25% over Reform and the Tories combined. The right had was polling below what the Tories are scoring in 2017. The situation in 2017 is bad for the Tories and good for the Liberals, but the 2019 election is hardly a fait accompli, particularly if the new NDP leader can shave a few points off the Liberals.

Good point.  Interestingly enough it always seems the Liberals poll higher in between elections while Tories poll lower so if you look at the normal swing in past elections it would actually put the parties close to tied.  Off course I suspect in the 90s since it was obvious the Liberals would win, many went for their second choice as they wanted some opposition whereas there is no risk in 2019 of the Liberals not having a solid opposition.  In addition prior to Harper, the Tories were quite weak and divided and demoralized whereas now they are pretty united.  The only thing they do have going is if you look at Nanos poll they ask people if you are willing to consider voting for the party and that was 39% would consider voting Tory in 2015 while now it is 47%.  Liberals were at 54% both times so no change, but it did go as high as 64% last year.  So the Tories do have potential to pick up more votes but so far haven't and those might be more people who are willing to switch once they tire of the Liberals which will probably come after 2019.

[mileslunn]

RIP: Grit MP Arnold Chan (Scarborough-Agincourt) has died at 50.

Very sad, such a young age.  In terms of by-elections this should probably stay with the Grits although the Tories surprisingly did better in 2015 than 2011, one of the few ridings this happened but still would be shocked if they picked it up.  Nonetheless at this point probably best to remember him and worry about the by-election later. 

[mileslunn]

No, the Chinese are trending Conservative. It could very well be a close race.

Not in Richmond, British Columbia.

Federally they are, but provincially they are not.  The swing against the Conservatives in Richmond was much less than the province as a whole in the same in the heavy Chinese areas of the GTA.  However it's true provincially the swing against the BC Liberals was quite strong there.  I am guessing unlike in the past where many voted Liberal federally and BC Liberal provincially you are seeing those who vote BC Liberal provincially going over to the Conservatives whereas those who have stayed with the federal Liberals are going over to the BC NDP.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet-QC: 30/26/26/18. PQ recovering from its summer swoon for now, Grits now 3rd (lmao) among Francophones while Lisée's still in grave danger of losing Rosemont. Per Breguet, CAQ's better distribution helps them on seat count. In related news, PSPP is officially running in swingy Prévost. My guess is that Grits get voted out if they don't win a majority.

Maybe a repeat of 2007 where you had similar seat breakdowns.  Although the Liberals being ahead amongst seniors is probably a good thing is they are most likely to vote and I have found in recent elections polls tend to underestimate PLQ support.  By contrast I find polls tend to overestimate Quebec Solidaire support which skews heavily towards younger voters who are least likely to vote so I would be surprised but not shocked if QS actually got 18%.

[mileslunn]

This seems a bit out of whack with other polls http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ so probably a rogue poll although maybe picking up on a trend.  We shall find out with the next round of polls.  Although I've noticed in general Conservatives tend to do best on the IVR polls while online polls the worst and CATI somewhere in between.  I am guessing perhaps age demographics as IVR polls skew heavily towards older voters while online are more skewed towards younger.  That being said Trudeau's approval is only -4 which is better than most premiers including one's who have successfully been re-elected and Scheer is largely unknown making those numbers even more questionable.

I've found Forum is pretty good when it comes to final polls, but definitely in between elections they've had a lot of weird ones that didn't make sense, but no way of knowing whether they were right or not as you can only accurately compare final polls to actual results as opposed to midterm ones.  If this were the numbers on October 20, 2019 then maybe it would be a sign something big is going to happen, but two years out from an election, probably doesn't mean a whole lot.  Off course the Liberals would be silly to assume they have the election in the bag and likewise the Tories would be silly to think winning in 2019 will be easy (the odds of them winning even with this poll are still fairly low although not zero).

[mileslunn]

Chretien had a much bigger lead than Trudeau did mind you he faced a much more divided and weaker opposition.  The PCs got 2 seats in 1993 and NDP 9 seats so neither could realistically win the next election while the BQ only ran in Quebec and the Reform Party may have won more seats than the NDP has now, but their vote was heavily concentrated in the Western provinces thus they would have needed a much bigger uniform swing to topple the government.

Interestingly enough Nanos sort of confirms Forum at least directionally although not to degree (I find Forum is good at picking up trends, but tends to exaggerate shifts).  Last week Liberals had a 10.9 lead (40.9 to 30%) while this week it is only six points (38.5% to 32.5%) and Nanos is a four week rolling poll so this week's numbers were probably even tighter.  Still it's two years away and I suspect if the Liberal's own internal polls paint as bad a picture they will make changes.  Off course their tax fight might be more about distracting the upcoming NDP leadership race hoping to drive down the NDP vote thus why they are playing up the class warfare and it seems to be working considering the NDP polling numbers.  Yes it may be costing them some Red Tory and Blue Liberal votes, but perhaps they figure they will win those back on something else or if they paint Scheer as an extremist that group will hold their nose and vote Liberal even if unhappy.

[mileslunn]

Alberta MLA Karen McPherson (Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill) has left the NDP caucus to sit as an independent, citing dissatisfaction with increased polarization in the political system.

Interesting.  To be fair the riding pretty much always went PC prior to 2015 and still votes Conservative federally so it's not likely she would have been able to hold her riding unless the UCP messes up really badly.

[mileslunn]

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed universally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.

[mileslunn]

I'm in Calgary visiting my in laws. Some quick thoughts:

Roads: Excellent
Sprawl: Everywhere
Consumerism: Rampant
Scenery: Beautiful

Also, Nenshi seems to be winning the sign war.

Polls suggest otherwise.  I was in High River for Thanksgiving and there Trudeau and Notley seemed univrsally hated mind you 75% voted Tory last federal election and 75% voted for either the PCs or Wildrose last provincial election no surprise.  Calgary will be interesting, but if Mainstreet Poll is to believed, a 17 point gap is a big one to overcome.

uhh, NOT EVEN CLOSE to correct.
Federally, they won 59.5%, and in the provincial election, PC+WR won 52.03% (27.8+24.23, respectively)

That was High River, not Calgary which like most small towns in Rural Alberta is staunchly conservative.

[mileslunn]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/18/world/canada/quebec-face-coverings-ban.html

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I'm curious about which parties voted for/against this measure... any ideas?

I think Quebec Solidaire was the only one to vote against but could be wrong.  There was only one vote against while everyone else voted in favour.  The CAQ and PQ tend to play identity politics far more than the PLQ so you can pretty much bank on them supporting such a bill.

[mileslunn]

Actually CAQ and PQ voted against it, but only because they felt it didn't go far enough.  They want to introduce legislation that will go even further.  Interestingly enough next door in Ontario, the legislature unanimously condemned it.  I am guessing Wynne did this to try and trip up Patrick Brown which she has tried and many issues and everytime she tries he refuses to take the bait.  In fact Lisa MacLeod of the PCs asked if Ontario would ask for intervener status in a court case if a charter challenge is launched against this.

[mileslunn]

Out of curiosity, why was the poll at the above of the page added, and who did it? I created this thread but had no part in creating a poll. Just curious.

I added this, but meant the Alberta UCP leadership discussion so accidentally got put on the wrong page.  Do you know how to move this to the correct one?

[mileslunn]

Out of curiosity, why was the poll at the above of the page added, and who did it? I created this thread but had no part in creating a poll. Just curious.

I added this, but meant the Alberta UCP leadership discussion so accidentally got put on the wrong page.  Do you know how to move this to the correct one?

How though? I wasn't aware that non-moderators could edit a topic to include a poll. I'll see if a Mod can delete it, as this thread will probably be around until the next election and it's weird to have that poll on it.

I can delete it, but we prefer to keep it up, just on a different thread so is there a way to move it.  I accidentally posted it in the wrong thread, otherwise a fair poll just not the right thread so hoping it can be moved over to the other one.  If that doesn't work I will then delete this one and redo a new one on the correct thread, but would rather not lose the votes so far.