Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Lotuslander]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

At this point, ~ one year out from the 2013 BC election, Ipsos-Reid had the BC NDP leading by an astounding 19%!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5659

As for Ipsos-Reid during the 2014 ON election, their last opinion poll pegged the ONDP at 30% - actual was 23.8%.

My main point? Ipsos-Reid and other opt-in online panel pollsters always overestimate the NDP vote. Both Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid (also opt-in online) had similar 8%-9% BC NDP leads in their last day polls the day prior to the May, 2013 BC election.

Opt-in online and IVR are just cheap polling junk. Give me a "gold-standard" CATI poll any day of the week.

[Lotuslander]

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er!

[Lotuslander]

A new opinion poll for BC today by Innovative Research - a CATI poll (landline/cell) with these results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15
Other: 2%

https://www.scribd.com/document/321630168/Innovative-Research-Group-Survey#from_embed