Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[King of Kensington]

Any predictions re: Trudeau's Cabinet?

[King of Kensington]

Certainly the most diverse Cabinet we've ever seen. 

[King of Kensington]

Can someone explain why the long form census was such a big deal?

Municipalities, social service agencies, business etc. want reliable data.  If it's voluntary, it's hard to say how accurate the data really is.  Statscan suppressed the data for many smaller municipalitie.

About half a dozen people in the country objected due to privacy concerns. 

[King of Kensington]

Still think Mulcair survives.

My prediction:  Mulcair gets 81% at leadership review.

[King of Kensington]

Very true, but it's very clear the NDP needs to tack left now if they want to differentiate themselves from the Liberals. Going to the centre is all well and good when the Liberals are in third, but there's no room there now. I doubt Mulcair can pull the party to the left, but who will?

My guess is Mulcair gets about a 60% approval and is forced to step down.

A lot of NDPers don't want to admit it, but they got extremely lucky in 2011.  It wasn't the centrist shift that resulted in the breakthrough or the tactical brilliance of Brad Lavigne or the "inevitable" displacement of the Liberals by a "proper" left-right polarization.  They had the perfect storm: a VERY unpopular Liberal leader, a political vacuum in Quebec, and Layton's personal appeal.  I think people voted NDP because they thought was Jack was a nice guy but didn't have a clue what was in the platform.

Mulcair is sounding really desperate now when he says he's a "democratic socialist", doesn't have a problem with deficits if spending is used to "help people" etc. 

The problem with Mulcair is he offers the worst of both worlds: neither principle or electability. 

As for the question "if not Mulcair then who?" - well the party doesn't have much of a purpose anymore if they're doomed without him.  I think a leadership race would be healthy for the NDP as it would kickstart a debate about the party's future direction.

[King of Kensington]

How much of a left wing tack do you think the NDP needs? You know I'm not a fan of the cling to the centre theory of electioneering, but there's a huge difference between differentiating the party from the Liberals and adopting the NDP Socialist Caucus platform.

I think the left-populist approach of Bernie Sanders, or Ed Broadbent-style social democracy (those two are pretty much identical ideologically) would work.  

It'll be interesting to see how Gary Burrill does in your home province.

[King of Kensington]

I don't think the Grits will stay way out on left field and squash the NDP that way. Justin's dad tried that in his first term and nearly lost.  But they can certainly keep them where they are now, IMO.

PET also tacked left in 1980.  It worked wonders in Ontario where the NDP was held down to 5 seats, in spite of getting 22% of the vote.  However by then he was so hated in the West that the Liberals took only 2 seats in the West.

[King of Kensington]

Joe Oliver will run provincially in York Centre. Won't happen, but would be amusing to see him as finance minister at both levels of government.

Some "young blood" to replace Monte Kwinter!

[King of Kensington]

Kwinter, 85, says he plans to run again.  Kwinter has been recovering from an illness though, and presumably Oliver (who is 76) is planning to run for the PCs in York Centre because they think Kwinter may not finish his term.

http://www.cjnews.com/news/canada/ex-federal-finance-minister-oliver-seeks-provincial-nod-in-york-centre

http://www.torontosun.com/2016/10/17/mpp-absence-not-unprecedented

[King of Kensington]

Hard to say.  I suspect a lot of his hard core supporters over the years have died of old age.   

[King of Kensington]

I started a thread on the Ontario 2018 election:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0

[King of Kensington]

Joe Oliver has lost the York Centre PC nomination.

The guy he lost to is probably 50 years younger than him.

[King of Kensington]

https://nypost.com/2017/12/08/bat-wielding-racist-screams-isis-at-family-speaking-spanish/

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This is disturbing at best...

Shockingly, the suspect is the great-grandson of Nathan Phillips, Toronto's first Jewish mayor elected in the 1950s.  He was known as the mayor of "all the people" and for promoting inclusion and tolerance.
 

[King of Kensington]

Not surprising from the Ontario Bible Belt, alas.

Not sure I would call Southwestern Ontario the bible belt, that is more Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario although unlike in say southern New Brunswick, southern Manitoba, southern Alberta, and the Fraser Valley of BC, Ontario doesn't have a really strong bible belt the way those do.  Now yes Elgin-Middlesex-London is a fairly solid conservative seat, but that is probably more economic.  There is a feeling the Liberals are very Toronto centric so areas furthest removed from Toronto tend to go either Tory or NDP.  Heavily unionized areas like Windsor, Hamilton, and Northern Ontario more NDP while most rural Ontario ridings go Conservative.

Ontario's most evangelical areas are in SW Ontario and the Niagara region.

[King of Kensington]

Huh? I knew that was the Dutch Calvinist belt, but they're a minority among Evangelicals. Didn't know that SW Ontario had high numbers of Baptists/Pentecostals.

Outside Atlantic Canada, evangelicals in Canada are largely Mennonite or Dutch, no?

[King of Kensington]

[the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative.

Yeah, the Conservatives are a pretty "orthodox" small-"c" conservative party. 

Kellie Leitch was a pretty dreadful populist though.  She had no charisma whatsoever and came across as reading Trump talking points from a teleprompter.

[King of Kensington]

Jagmeet Singh will be addressing the media at 1.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-allegation-ndp-1.4514117?cmp=rss

[King of Kensington]

Former BC premier Dave Barrett, certainly one of the most colorful characters in Canadian politics, has died:

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/first-ndp-premier-of-b-c-dave-barrett-dead-at-87

[King of Kensington]

^ Horrible.  Reading that made me ill.

[King of Kensington]

He was voted Parliamentarian of the Year by MPs of all parties.  What does that say about the culture on Parliament Hill?

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/presenting-the-2013-parliamentarians-of-the-year/

[King of Kensington]

Re: Jagmeet Singh, JT's India trip etc., how does this impact diaspora poltiics and voting patterns?  Do the Tories basically give up on appealing to much of the Sikh community at all and just become the "pro-Modi" party and focus on Hindus? How do the Liberals balance taking on Singh's "weakness on Khalistani terrorism" without alienating their own sizable Sikh vote?  

[King of Kensington]

York Centre should be changed to Downsview.

[King of Kensington]

Tom Parkin, who kind of operates as the NDP's official stenographer in the Toronto Sun, seems to think that the BC and Ontario NDPs owe Singh big time and will yield big results.

[King of Kensington]

Can Singh at least hold the ROC seats and make some gains with an appeal to urban progressives, environmentalists and Sikhs?

[King of Kensington]

So Jagmeet Singh says he's committed to moving to Burnaby.