Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

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There is a possibility of electoral reform for the next election (unless it was only campaign promise that they don't intend to pursue). This could change how MPs are elected. Perhaps parties with new leaders next time should not hurry to select new leaders because depending on the system it can influence what type of leader is preferable.

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Jean-François Fortin, founder and leader of Forces et Démocratie is leaving politics.

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The tax cut was supposed to pay itself by a tax increase in higher bracker but it turns out it will not be true and this promise will add to the deficit.

One big promise was to invest more in infrastructure.

Things being done:
Reinstate the mandatory long form census
Moratorium on eliminating home delivery of mail (reinstating or what happens in the future remains to be seen)
No toll to be put on the Champlain bridge linking Montreal to the south suburbs
End air strikes mission against ISIS

[Poirot]

One big promise that will not be respected is running a "modest" budget deficit of up to $10 billion in the first two years of the mandate and I think a balanced budget in the fourth year. The deficit in the upcoming budget will be higher than that. People may not mind because there will be money for projects and programmes and investment instead of cuts and spending restraint.

The Parliament Budget Officer told La Presse according to the numbers from the Finance Department, the Conservatives have balanced the budget in 2015-2016. There is a surplus after the first 9 months of the fiscal year. 

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/canada/201603/15/01-4960825-les-conservateurs-avaient-equilibre-le-budget.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=lapresseaffaires_LA5_nouvelles_98718_accueil_POS15

One key message I remember hearing in the liberal ads is middle class parents would have more money in their pockets.

To follow the the completion of promises there is the Trudeau polimeter of Université Laval Political Science Dept.
https://www.poltext.org/en/polimeter

And the Trudeaumetre website
https://www.trudeaumetre.ca/

 

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I've answered an Ipsos poll about the future federal budget. I had to rank 15 priorities, give opinion on different size of deficit number and if I agree on different statements. I hope it was for a media and made public before the next budget.

Will the NDP send itself into a leadership contest ? Some socialist wing wants new leadership. There was also an open letter by 35 NDP members in Quebec saying they don't recognize their party, they want to rebuild the party on its founding values and the party should be more progressive, democratic and transparent. They don't ask for a new leader explicitly but the timing is strange. They could speak within the party at the convention. 40% of them are from NDG-Westmount riding and the vast majority have non- francophone names.

Niki Ashton wouldn't say if she will support Mulcair for leader. Is that because she is interested in the job?

I don't know if the NDP has some mechanism to change leader later but I think it's too soon. Maybe Mulcair will decide before the next election to leave leadership if he sees no improvement. Selecting a new leader should be done later to see what happens in a year or two. You could attract people outside of caucus. Right now probably not possible to choose someone outside caucus. Later you also know who will be the Conservative leader. You know what type of person, or from what region could lead the party to electoral gains.   

[Poirot]

I've answered an Ipsos poll about the future federal budget. I had to rank 15 priorities, give opinion on different size of deficit number and if I agree on different statements. I hope it was for a media and made public before the next budget.

It was done with Global. For the priorities, they report if they are in the top 3 of respondents.

40% spending more on health care
34% cuttin taxes
28% increasing taxes on wealthiest citizens
28% cutting the deficit
28% spending more to help middle class families

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7182

For the size of deficit, 74% would support a balanced budget
55% would support a deficit of $10 billion (highest support in BC, lowest in Quebec),
26% would support $20 billion deficit
15% would support $30 billion
12% would support $40 billion

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7179

And other questions on the government and economy such as 53% believe volatile economic conditions give the right to Liberals to break promises.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7176

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The possible names I've read are Nathan Cullen, Megan Leslie, Niki Ashton.

If Mulcair gets 60%, which could be seen as a slap in the face, will he stay as MP or start looking for another job and resign in the short term and let the NDP try to hold the riiding of Outremont.

If I were him, seeing the number of ex-caucus members or current not supporting me, I would exit the party as quickly as possible if I had another interesting job opportunity.

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Just before  the NPD convention Forum has a poll on Mulcair leadership. In the general population, 32% agree Mulcair should step down, 36% disagree. Only Quebec and Ontario have more disagree than agree (in Quebec 50% disagree).

Among those voting NDP, 22% agree with step down while 56% disagree.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2490/just-one-third-of-canadians-think-he-should-stay/

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It will be interesting to see what the NDP does with the principles of the Leap manifesto. In opposition you can be more against oil and pipeline than in a general election in which your opponents will attack you for hurting the economy and lose potential votes.

Parties adopt policies but they also choose what they put in the election come election. The manifesto seems to question capitalism. The party tried to be seen as a potential responsible government. If they become too radical they will lose that. Maybe they will prefer ideals over electability. I hope they don't think the more left they go the more popular they will be.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-oil-ground-manifesto-1.3523849

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I haven't been paying much attention to Canadian politics much since the elections. Why is Mulcair drawing so much hate from the NDP base? Is it because of the election results and him shifting the party rightward?

I'm wondering if he was ever fully accepted, not having a long NDP pedigree. A good portion of the party (even Broadbent) didn't want him during the leadership race and he represents a "reasonable left" rather than more "radical left".

Alberta Premier Notley pleaded for support for oil and pipeline to help Alberta. Maybe the Alberta delegates should think of voting for Mulcair to stay because if the party choose a new leader with a sharp left discourse, that usually means anti-oil / pro-environment.

I saw a convention delegate count by province (this excludes union delegates who are not representeing provinces)

Ontario 433
Alberta 344
BC 244
Québec 156
Saskatchewan 114
Others 96

I have watched some convention activity on tv and I'm not used to people refering to others as brother or sister. It was a bit weird.

[Poirot]

Motion to examine Leap for the next convention has been adopted.

I watched some of the debate but didn't see the vote/ result how split it was. The Alberta NDP must be disappointed and angre. They advocated it will hurt them.

Mulcair had to face unhappiness from some progressives and now the Alberta section might feel discouraged by the Leap vote just before the leadership vote and don't have motivation to go vote to keep the leader.

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I found this news:

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Looks like Mulcair was in a no win situation with the Leap manifesto. Alberta angry he didn't shut it down. Those who find him not enough left or accuse the party of not listening to grassroots were already unhappy. Imagine if party leadership was seen as trying to obstruct debating the resolution.

I don't understand what the Alberta delegates get by a change in leadership (besides an expression of their frustration). It's not like the next leader will be pro oil sands.

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An article in Le Journal de Montréal asking if it's the end of the NDP in Québec.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2016/04/12/vers-la-fin-du-npd-au-quebec

After kicking out Mulcair two political scientists are pessimistic. Think support for NDP will drop. The party has no deep roots. In the province it was the party of two men: Layotn and Mulcair. Voters vote for the leader. If the next leader is not from Quebec, it doesn't look good. Could be wiped off the map. Their support is fragile and the Trudeau brand is strong.

Another is less pessimistic. Says the party has developped an organization. It will depend on the next leadership race, if there are candidates from Quebec, will the party question it's openess to Quebec. NDP will need to make Quebec a priority if they want to take power or become a strong opposition.     

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It will not be high speed. Via Rail is proposing a high frequency train. Slower, less costly and with some stops. They would use dedicated tracks for passengers trains and it would be electric hybrid.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/via-rail-quebec-ontario-1.3537019

There could be 15 daily departures from Quebec City to Montreal instead of 5 at the moment. It would take 2 hours 10 minutes. It would run north of the St. Lawrence with a stop in Trois-Rivières.

Montreal-Toronto would take 3 hours 45 minutes (4 hours 30 now)
Ottawa-Toronto in 2 hours 30 min.
Montreal-Ottawa 1 hour 20 min.

And since it's the new popular thing, pension funds would be involved in financing this infrastructure project.

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Jean Rousseau, ex-NDP MP for Compton-Stanstead is joining the Green Party. He thinks the environment should be the top priority.

http://ici.radio-canada.ca/regions/estrie/2016/04/29/005-rousseau-vert-transition-estrie.shtml

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The NDP Québec (provincial party) is holding meetings in Quebec City and Montreal this weekend to see who could be local leaders and familiiarize future volunteers with provincial electoral laws.

It is a registered party with 300 members. They say if they decide to be an active party they will be ready in time for the 2018 election.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/480582/un-pas-de-plus-vers-un-npd-quebecois

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How well known is Pierre Ducasse in Quebec? It's really weird that he has been out of the spotlight over the last 5 years.

He wanted to get the nomination in Manicouagan in the last federal election but withdrew a couple of weeks after his announcement. He would have challenged a sitting MP.

He announced in late September 2014 (for the October 2015 election) and the riding nomination was called for early November so that gave him about a week to sell memberships to people who would be eligible to vote at the nomination meeting. He asked for the date to be in January but it was maintained and he withdrew.

He didn't seem to be aware of the nomination date. I don't know if the date was chosen before he made his announcement or the nomination meeting scheduled in a hurry fater he made his announcement so he didn't have time to organize his campaign to protevt the MP. That was one year before the election.

A provincial NDPQ might run candidates in the next election just to start building for the future. Parties get public financing according to their total vote share, so if they get a minimal source of income it can help to survive until the next election.         

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In a Longueuil Internet media, NDP Pierre Nantel answered he would be interested in switching to provincial politics. The writer says it would be for the PQ and replacing Martine Ouellet in Vachon could be a possibility. There is no quote from the MP talking about party though.

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Québec Solidaire has had 2000 membership request on the net since Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois made his announcement a few days ago.
 
http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201703/13/01-5078171-gabriel-nadeau-dubois-a-quebec-solidaire-2000-nouveaux-militants.php

He is also running to be male spokesperson. He rails against the political class of the last 30 years. He wants to grow the party outside Montreal. He is open to unite with Option Nationale.

Will be watching the size of bump in the polls after the media attention and if it divides the opposition vote to the Liberals even more.

Update: it is now 4,000 in 5 days. They had 10,000 members before.

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Will be watching the size of bump in the polls after the media attention and if it divides the opposition vote to the Liberals even more.

Québec Solidaire has a 5 point boost compared to the January Léger poll. PQ minus 4. Makes the PLQ in comfortable position. Full results of the poll. http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/201703181fr.pdf

Party % (% francophone vote)

PLQ 34% (22)
PQ 25% (31)
CAQ 22% (25)
QS 14% (17)
Conservateur 2% (2)
Vert 1% (1)

63% would like a change in government but when asked who represents change the most, it's even between CAQ, PQ and QS with about 25% for each.

32% wish for an electoral alliance betwwen PQ and QS, 36% against. PQ voters are the most in favor, 73% are for, 9% against. QS voters are 43% for, 26% against. 

There is an anti-politics sentiment. 50% agree in some form with the statement We must get rid of the politics class who governed the last 30 years because it betrayed Quebec. 37% disagree.

46% would prefer a new politician who represents change while 41% would choose an experienced politician who knows how government works.     

[Poirot]

Would be nice to see a provincial poll come out of Saskatchewan. The budget was very unpopular with both city and rural folk, and I wouldn't be surprised to see if the Sask Party's 30 point victory evaporated into a single digit lead in a poll.

Mainstreet did a post-budget poll.

47% would vote for the Sask Party, 42% NDP. NDP lead in Regina, narrow lead in Saskatoon and Sask dominates outside the cities.

Wall has a 46% approval rating, 45% disapproval.

http://leaderpost.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-walls-popularity-falls-as-taxes-and-cuts-rise

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WHOA: Ambrose quitting politics after the new leader is elected.

Jesus, how many actual prominent Harper people are left?

Rob Nicholson.

Tony Clement, Diane Finley

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In Quebec provincial politics, delegates at the meeting of Québec Solidaire voted against an electoral pact with the Parti Québécois. In some ridings only one candidate of the two parties would run to increase chances of winning and defeat the PLQ. Polls showed alliances between opposition parties to be popular among their voters. QS has voted to have talks about a merge with Option Nationale.

The left vote will be split and will be very hard to win. The CAQ polled ahead of the PQ in last week poll and could be seen has the best alternative for those wanting a change in government.

There is an agreement between PQ, QS, Option Nationale and the Bloc on a roadmap for sovereignty in the future. It seems there would be a citizens assembly to write a constitution. I think that was QS that wanted that. QS asked to keep it secret for now. Strange that PQ and QS could work together in the future since QS delegates called it racist and see them as neoliberal like the other parties. Some say QS wants to replace the PQ. I don't see how a more radical party would be more successful.

There was hummus in the lunch at the QS meeting. They removed it because it was from Israel and they persecute Palestinians.

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The NDP-Québec will choose a permanent leader January 21 2018 to replace interim leader Pierre Ducasse.

Race starts September 1st. Nomination period ends October 20.

It plans to set up regional associations in Quebec City, Chaudière-Appalaches, Montérégie and Outaouais.

http://montrealgazette.com/news/ndp-quebec-to-elect-new-leader-in-january

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Hebert: Nantel might run for the PQ in a seat-swap with Ouellet, and NDP fading here might revive the Bloc.

Hébert is late on this. I shared it here seven months ago!

In a Longueuil Internet media, NDP Pierre Nantel answered he would be interested in switching to provincial politics. The writer says it would be for the PQ and replacing Martine Ouellet in Vachon could be a possibility. There is no quote from the MP talking about party though.