Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[DC Al Fine]

Minister of Public Works Diane Finely is rumoured to be getting the interim Tory leader job.

[DC Al Fine]

An interesting question for policy wonks:

Premier Wynne introduced a pension plan in Ontario after Harper refused to expand CPP. Trudeau now has a majority and wants to expand CPP, but that would take a lot of time and negotiations with the provinces. Will/should she continue implementing the new pension plan only to possibly cancel it after a very short period of time, or should she hold off and try to help Trudeau fast track a new solution

[DC Al Fine]

Duceppe is quitting tomorrow

[DC Al Fine]

Duceppe is quitting tomorrow

Does BQ have any capable leader to replace him with? Is it likely that this election could be for them what 1997 was for the PCs? Wishful thinking, I know...

Mario Beaulieu was the pre-Duceppe leader, and won his seat. I'd consider him a favourite, although admittedly I know nothing about the rest of the BQ caucus. Also, keep in mind that the Bloc vote decreased and they only won more seats because their main competitor, the NDP, collapsed and the Liberal wave was not nearly as strong as the 2011 NDP wave in francophone areas. The next election where the Francophone vote consolidates behind a single federalist party will also be the election where the Bloc is finally wiped out, I wouldn't call that wishful thinking.

Louis Plamondon is a plausible candidate. He's one of the BQ founders and doesn't have an extremist reputation. However he's in his 70's, and didn't run in the last two leadership contests. He may not want the job.

[DC Al Fine]

Rheal Fortin, newly elected MP for Riviere du Nord has been named interim Bloc leader.

[DC Al Fine]

Just in case you needed further proof that journalists can't do math.

Jeffery Simpson: Soft nationalists moved en masse back to the Bloc (BQ change in Quebec: -4.1%)

Conrad Black: The Tories "substantially increased their share in Quebec", (Con change in Quebec: +0.2%)

[DC Al Fine]

He's really in a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. If he stays on as MP, he'll be accused of holding back party rebuilding, and the Liberals will gleefully turn 2019 into a second referendum on Harper. If he resigns like Prentice, he'll be forever disgraced and ostracized from the party.

I think the correct thing to do would be to quit when the new leader is elected. That should be long enough for the Liberal honeymoon to subside and to avoid any "quitting on election night" backlash, while still getting out of the way well in advance of the election.

[DC Al Fine]

Star revealed some senior portfolios: Goodale as DPM/House Leader, Brison at Finance, Dion at Environment, Freeland at Foreign Affairs or International Trade. Vaughan and Bennett won't make it.

I would have preferred Morneau, but Brison is a good pick to reassure Bay St. I'm kind of curious to see how much an effect he will have on the budget, given that he was a quasi-libertarian at times during his two leadership campaigns. He was pro-private healthcare, pro-EI reform (which is weird considering how EI reform screwed the Tories in ATL), and I think he has said some nice things about corporate tax cuts and flat taxes.

[DC Al Fine]

NS Environment minister Andrew Younger has been expelled from the Liberal caucus. He failed to appear as a witness in the assault trial of the staffer he was having an affair with. The woman allegedly assaulted him after he broke up with her when he was named to cabinet.

[DC Al Fine]

So Armstrong is in the shadow cabinet. Interesting. I assume he plans on running again. He should have a decent shot if Casey retires.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, no Kenney on the front bench? Whats up with that?

[DC Al Fine]

Ottawa-Vanier MP Mauril Belanger has Lou Gehrig's disease.

[DC Al Fine]

Geoff Regan elected House of Commons Speaker.

Woot, my MP

[DC Al Fine]

Quarterly CRA polls are out. They neglected to poll Newfoundland on the usual schedule due to the election.

Nova Scotia
Lib: 64% (+14)
PC: 17% (-3)
NDP: 17% (-11)

New Brunswick
Lib: 55% (+19)
PC: 25% (-3)
NDP: 12% (-13)
Green: 7% (-3)

PEI
Lib: 61% (+15)
PC: 18% (-4)
Green: 11% (-2)
NDP: 9% (-9)

Nothing too interesting. Libs popular, Tories not, promiscusous progs dump NDP for Libs.

[DC Al Fine]

I've come to the conclusions that 99% of people are complete idiots when it comes to pensions, especially political ones.

A Nova Scotia panel has recommended that the time served for MLA's to get their pension be reduced to two years. I disagree with the position, but it's not totally unreasonable. More to the point, the panel is suggesting partial pensions that scale up over time

Cue eleventy billion comments about how "I should be an MLA for two years, quit and get a full pension."

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia's cyber bullying law has been struck down.

The most bizarre charge under the law involved a high school student posting nude photos of an NDP MLA (she was an actress, and they were stills from a part she played in a movie). Anyway, good riddance. It was a poorly written law.

[DC Al Fine]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/police-likely-to-investigate-death-threats-against-rachel-notley-security-expert-says-1.3362620?cmp=rss

It doesn't matter if these people are just "howlers" as law enforcement puts it, they should be made an example of. There should be ZERO TOLERANCE for death threats against public figures.

We should probably set up a rotation to visit Hash in Kingston Pen then...

[DC Al Fine]

Defeated Tory MP Steven Fletcher will be acclaimed as the PC candidate in Assiniboia for the next Manitoba provincial election.

[DC Al Fine]

The NS NDP leadership election will be on Feb 27th, and will use IRV.

Tl;dr of the linked article:

Burrill: Left wing socialist
Wilson: Dexter-wing, centrist
Zann: In between

[DC Al Fine]

Burrill: Left wing socialist

He doesn't sound that left wing, from what I've read.

It's Nova Scotia. No one's very anything.

[DC Al Fine]

I just did the math and I am a 8 hour drive from the nearest non-Liberal seat (Rimouski)

[DC Al Fine]

If they run a left wing populist campaign, they would get more than 15% of the vote. If Corbyn and Sanders can do it...

Of course, if they just run a boring old school NDP campaign, then yes, expect the same results as the in the 1990s.

Such a populist approach is untested in modern Canadian politics, so don't trust my polling expertise on this one. I'm just observing what's going on in the rest of the Anglosphere.

Corbyn and Sanders haven't faced a general election yet.  Also, they are running in mostly two party nations (though I think Corbyn could bring the Liberal Democrats back from the (near) dead.

The difference is that the NDP are languishing in 3rd place, while Corbyn and Sanders are leading or trying to be the nominee of major parties. The expectations are different. Michael Foote's campaign in 1983, was a total disaster, but I'm sure the NDP would be happy take 27% and Official Opposition today.

[DC Al Fine]

Tory leadership vote next spring. Bernier and Leitch are running, MacKay/Raitt/Clement likely. Many think Kenney won't run.

Well, my vote is up for grabs assuming Kenney stays out.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus: Outside Alberta, Trudeaumania continues despite a worsening economy.

Related to the NDP's woes, I note that Trudeau has a near 60% approval rating among 2015 NDP voters. That will have to change if they want to do well. OTOH Trudeau has a 15% approval rating among 2015 Conservative voters, which suggests the Tories are close to their floor.

[DC Al Fine]

Anyways, let's not forget that my point is that running a left wing populist campaign will not win the NDP the next election, it will just save them from irrelevancy. Running as "Liberal lite" will have to wait until the actual Liberals become unpopular again.

One small advantage the NDP will have next time, is that they will be the only major party criticizing the government from the left. So long as the Tories were in power, they had to compete with the Liberals to voice certain kinds of criticism. Now it's more open, as it's not like the Tories are going to start complaining about "tax cuts for the rich".