Louisiana Jungle Primary Predictions Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Louisiana Jungle Primary will occur on October 24th, and is the first step to electing a new governor, as well as for elections to other offices. Statewide Contests are as follows:

Agriculture Commissioner:

Charlie Greer (D)
Ace Juttner (G)
Jamie LaBranche (R)
Mike Strain (R, inc.)

Attorney General:

Geri Baloney (D)
Buddy Caldwell (R, inc.)
Ike Jackson (D)
Jeff Landry (R)
Marty Maley (R)

Governor:

Scott Angelle (R)
Beryl Billiott (I)
Jay Dardenne (R)
Cary Deaton (D)
John Bel Edwards (D)
Jeremy Odom (I)
Eric Orgeron (I)
S.L. Simpson (D)
David Vitter (R)

Insurance Commissioner:

Jim Dongelon (R, inc.)
Donald Hodge (D)
Charlotte McGehee (D)
Matt Parker (R)

Lt. Governor:

Elbert Guillory (R)
Kip Holden (D)
Billy Nungesser (R)
John Young (R)

Sec. of State:

Tom Schedler (R, inc.)
Chris Tyson (D)

Treasurer:

John Kennedy (R, inc.)
Jennifer Treadway (R)

(LOL @ LADEMS not recruiting anyone here)

Any contest in which no one gets 50% will go to a runoff between the top two finishers on November 21.

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There are also four constitutional amendments on the ballot:

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http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/10/louisiana_constitutional_amend_3.html

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Gubernatorial Prediction:

Edwards - 34%
Vitter - 25%
Angelle - 21%
Dardenne - 16%
Others - 4%

[smoltchanov]

Will not predict percentages, but do some comments instead:

Governor: run-off Edwards - Vitter (and the only chance for Democrats to win)

Lt. Governor: run-off Holden - Young (with Young winning in November)

Att. General: run-off Caldwell - Landry (with Caldwell winning narrowly getting just enough Republican votes, and almost all - Democratic)

Strain, Donelon, Schedler and Kennedy - most likely reelected without run-off

 

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Gubernatorial Predictions

Primary:

- David Vitter - 31%
- John Bel Edwards - 30%
- Scott Angelle - 16%
- Jay Dardenne - 15%

Runoff:

- John Bel Edwards - 53%
- David Vitter - 47%

[Rockefeller GOP]

Do Forum Dems even want to win this?  I'd think they get way more enjoyment talking about dumb rednecks who vote against their interests than one extra governor's mansion.

[smoltchanov]

Do Forum Dems even want to win this?  I'd think they get way more enjoyment talking about dumb rednecks who vote against their interests than one extra governor's mansion.

Probably yes. I also don't consider the rednecks, you mentioned, to be "too enlightened", but still convinced that Democrats would value a governorship in Deep South rather high. Of course - some assholes will complain that "Edwards is too conservative generally, and how he dares to be "socially conservative" in particular???", but still - ...

Southern politics in general became too predictable of late: count percentage of whites and blacks in particular district, and you can make rather good guess of what to expect (exception - Northern Virginia, few areas in North Carolina, and central and southern Florida, which is one of the least politically "southern" part of the South) . Louisiana  (especially - Acadiana, and area around it) is still somewhat an exception, where some surprises are still possible. Though, frankly speaking - it seems to me that after 2019 (when there will be a massive turnover in Legislature because of term limits) it will become as predictable as other states..

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Gubernatorial Predictions

Primary:

- David Vitter - 31%
- John Bel Edwards - 30%
- Scott Angelle - 16%
- Jay Dardenne - 15%

Runoff:

- John Bel Edwards - 53%
- David Vitter - 47%

Modifying to the following:

Gubernatorial Predictions

Primary:

- John Bel Edwards - 34%
- David Vitter - 28%
- Scott Angelle - 16%
- Jay Dardenne - 15%

Runoff:

- John Bel Edwards - 56%
- David Vitter - 44%

[The Other Castro]

Governor:

Primary:
John Bel Edwards - 38%
David Vitter - 24%
Scott Angelle - 19%
Jay Dardenne - 16%

Runoff:
John Bel Edwards - 52%
David Vitter - 48%

[Pandaguineapig]

A lot of this depends on if the reports of record-low turnout in deme-learning areas are true

[PPT Spiral]

Primary:
John Bel Edwards - 39%
David Vitter - 26%
Scott Angelle - 18%
Jay Dardenne - 17%

Runoff:
John Bel Edwards - 55%
David Vitter - 45%

[smoltchanov]

IMHO, 55-56% for Edwards is way too optimistic. Even with all Vitter's problems (and there are relatively few politicians i dislike more then him). It's, after all, a Louisiana. 51-52% is an upper limit of what i may believe...

[Mehmentum]

I'm really surprised the Edwards might actually win this.  If so, this makes Jindal the Republican version of O'Malley.

[Tender Branson]

I have no clue, but:

36% Edwards (D)*
23% Angelle (R)*
21% Vitter (R)
15% Dardenne (R)
  5% Others

* runoff

[MT Treasurer]

Lol, I just realized that the jungle primary will occur this Saturday and not on November 3. Likely D if Vitter makes the runoff and Tossup if any other Republican makes it.

With Vitter:

Edwards (D): 54%
Vitter (R): 46%

Without Vitter:

Dardenne (R): 52%
Edwards (D): 48%

Angelle (R): 53%
Edwards (D): 47%

Do Forum Dems even want to win this?  I'd think they get way more enjoyment talking about dumb rednecks who vote against their interests than one extra governor's mansion.

True.

[Bojack Horseman]

Do Forum Dems even want to win this?  I'd think they get way more enjoyment talking about dumb rednecks who vote against their interests than one extra governor's mansion.

I for one do just to stuff it up the GOP's ass that they lost a governorship that should have been a runaway for them. Now I'm not happy about a Democrat identifying as a "pro-life, pro second amendment Christian" but in the end, Democrats actually govern like adults, while Republicans just want to burn the place down.

As for the prediction:

John Bel Edwards 33.76%
David Vitter 31.71%
Scott Angelle 18.24%
Jay Dardene 16.29%

Runoff:

John Bel Edwards 53%
David Vitter 47%

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Jungle Primary:
John Bel "No, Not That" Edwards (D) 41%
David "Diapers, Hookers, and Abortions" Vitter (R) 29%
Jay Dardenne (R) 17%
Scott Angelle (R) 13%

Runoff:
John Bel "No, Not That" Edwards (D) 52%
David "Diapers, Hookers, and Abortions" Vitter (R) 48%

[The Other Castro]

Less than two hours left to get your predictions in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Edwards:  38%
Vitter: 24%
Angelle: 19%
Dardenne: 17%

Not going to predict a runoff right now.

[JerryArkansas]

Edwards 39
Vitter 22
Angle 21
Dardenne 15


Edwards wins runoff

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Final Gubernatorial Predictions

Primary:

- John Bel Edwards - 38%
- David Vitter - 26%
- Scott Angelle - 18%
- Jay Dardenne - 16%

Runoff:

- John Bel Edwards - 57%
- David Vitter - 43%

[Niemeyerite]

John Bel Edwards - 37%
David Vitter - 24%
Jay Dardenne - 20%
Scott Angelle - 17%
Others 2%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Locking thread now. Head over to the other LA Thread for 'live coverage/blogging' of the results. Polls closing in 9 minutes.