WI: WPR: Feingold leading easily
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  WI: WPR: Feingold leading easily
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Author Topic: WI: WPR: Feingold leading easily  (Read 2427 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: October 21, 2015, 11:56:57 AM »

Article.

Feingold (D) - 51%
Johnson (R) - 40%
Not Sure - 7%
Other- 2%

Johnson's approvals are also about even, 38/39.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2015, 12:00:06 PM »

Johnson is going to be Blanched.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2015, 09:45:28 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2015, 11:17:23 AM by pbrower2a »


Not quite.

Losing 58-37 in a re-election would be about all that he would have in common with Blanche Lincoln. She was a political powerhouse as a conservative-to-moderate Democrat in Arkansas, a two-term Senator, winning two Senate elections before the Republican wave in the South dumped her. She won 62-38 in 1998 and 56-44 in 2004 in two fairly-good years for Republicans. Republicans maintained a 55-45 split in the Senate in 1998 and gained 5 Senate seats in 2004. Republicans made huge gains in 2010 largely by ousting incumbent Democrats, almost an inverse of 2006.

Face it -- the South has gone very far to the Right in its politics. Democrats can win in the South (Florida, Virginia and perhaps North Carolina), only in urban, high-minority-content districts -- and Republicans know enough to leave those areas alone in a sort of power-sharing that ensures that the other side has a voice but no power. Blanche Lincoln went down harder than any other Democratic incumbent, but after facing a primary challenge.

The district which  Blanche Lincoln represented (AR-01, eastern Arkansas) used to be reliably Democratic. It is now R+14. Of course districts get redrawn, but a Democrat reliably represented that district until 2011. Other districts are R+8 (AR-02, central Arkansas including  Little Rock), R+19 (AR-03, including Fayetteville and Wal*Mart headquarters), and R+14 (AR-04, including the rest of Arkansas... the most notable person from that district is Bill Clinton). I could say some more very hackish things about political trends in the Dixie... and I shall refrain.

Ron Johnson is a one-term Senator (and it will take some strange events to make him a two-term Senator). He won a narrow election (52-47) for Senate in his first-ever election for any public office in a wave election for Republicans. He is very far to the Right in a state that splits nearly 50-50 between Right and Left, which is not good for winning re-election. In a normal election year -- that is an election not a wave year for Republicans -- he loses. He needs a Republican wave to win re-election.  Unlike Blanche Lincoln he is unlikely to face a primary challenge. Also unlike Blanche Lincoln he has never showed himself a solid winner in previous elections.

If anything, recent polling in Wisconsin suggests that the state will have a Democratic wave in 2016. Wisconsin is likely to be about as D in 2016 as Massachusetts. A Senator who votes as if he could win big in Oklahoma in a state likely to resemble  Massachusetts in 2016 in political orientation will go down. Blanche Lincoln was close to the political center for America as a whole in a State veering rapidly to the Right and she seemed like a political powerhouse. That is a huge difference.  Ron Johnson is practically a joke as a politician.

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darthebearnc
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2015, 09:46:37 PM »

Surprised he's not leading by more, TBH.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2015, 10:04:19 PM »

Surprised he's not leading by more, TBH.

It's early.

We are going to find whether Senator Johnson can campaign effectively enough to win with a Hard Right record in at best for Republicans a 50-50 election nationwide in a state that leans slightly Democratic.

He could lose his Senate seat in a year in which Republicans hold onto the Senate majority that they now have. Republicans have a better chance of winning the open Senate seat of retiring Senator Harry Reid (NV) or ousting the incumbent Senator Michael Bennet (CO). The Republicans need a 2014-style R wave to re-elect him.   
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2015, 12:25:23 AM »

What a beautiful poll!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2015, 12:31:55 AM »

Democrats: Thank you, Scott Walker!
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2015, 03:29:11 AM »


I think Ron Johnson never needed any help to lose reelection.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2015, 12:07:46 PM »

Basically we are seeing that with Ron Johnson

(1) his initial election was a fluke
(2) he is a poor match for the ideology of the state
(3) he is not a good politician -- contrast Senator Chuck Grassley in Iowa
(4) like other Republicans he has done a poor job of getting goodies for his state
(5) the Republican Party is becoming toxic in Wisconsin to an extent beyond that in other recent swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia)

The only ways in which he wins re-election involve incredible incompetence or the exposure of a discrediting scandal of his opponent.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2015, 12:24:54 PM »

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Nyvin
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2015, 07:35:03 PM »

Johnson is a pretty hopeless case.    Stick a fork in him.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2015, 07:44:44 PM »

Johnson is a pretty hopeless case.    Stick a fork in him.

He's got 12 months to turn things around and he can go nowhere but up. Leans D at this point.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2015, 08:34:20 PM »

Johnson is a pretty hopeless case.    Stick a fork in him.

He's got 12 months to turn things around and he can go nowhere but updown to the dumps where he belongs. LeansLikely D at this point.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2015, 01:13:04 AM »

Johnson is a pretty hopeless case.    Stick a fork in him.

He's got 12 months to turn things around and he can go nowhere but up. Leans D at this point.

I agree with the first and last part, but things could still get worse for Johnson.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2015, 01:25:59 AM »

These polls are nice, but this race is going to tighten. Feingold is still the favorite, but Wisconsin is truly too polarized.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2015, 11:19:22 AM »

Republicans will be wise to abandon him so that thy can invest in protecting other seats or challenging the two current D seats (in Colorado and Nevada) that look at all vulnerable.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2015, 01:30:17 PM »

Dominating.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2015, 11:03:32 PM »

When was the last time an incumbent was defeated by the predecessor they defeated?

I wouldn't count NH '08, as Shaheen wasn't the incumbent in '02.)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: October 25, 2015, 07:44:27 AM »

When was the last time an incumbent was defeated by the predecessor they defeated?

I wouldn't count NH '08, as Shaheen wasn't the incumbent in '02.)

Usually the defeat of an incumbent implies that the incumbent is slipping as a politician (from which he can't recover), or that the area's political culture has changed (which is likely permanent). The defeated pol usually goes on to something else in knowledge of such. If anyone thinks that Blanche Lincoln could run against John Boozman in 2016 and win back a Senate seat in Arkansas -- Arkansas' political culture has changed so that there is no room for Clinton-era Democrats.

People voting for a politician that they rejected in the previous election admit that they made a mistake in their previous vote -- which is difficult and unlikely. This time it could be turnout.   
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2015, 11:18:26 AM »

When was the last time an incumbent was defeated by the predecessor they defeated?

I wouldn't count NH '08, as Shaheen wasn't the incumbent in '02.)

Guinta and Porter seem to love doing that
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Miles
MilesC56
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2015, 12:53:01 PM »

^ I can't find a Senate scenario but two candidates running this year, Strickland and Barron Hill, also did that at the House level.
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