NH: PPP: Hassan +1
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  NH: PPP: Hassan +1
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Author Topic: NH: PPP: Hassan +1  (Read 4948 times)
Miles
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« on: October 21, 2015, 01:33:07 PM »

Report.

Hassan (D) - 44%
Ayotte (R) - 43%
Not sure - 13%

Approvals:

Hassan - 50/39
Ayotte - 40/42
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2015, 01:34:00 PM »

lolnhppp
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2015, 01:41:58 PM »

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Could we see a Blanching here?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2015, 01:49:16 PM »

Hassan is a good fit.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2015, 01:52:55 PM »

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Could we see a Blanching here?
Nope.
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windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2015, 02:14:37 PM »

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Could we see a Blanching here?
No, many hardcore conservatives dislike Ayotte but will still vote for her.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2015, 04:13:26 PM »
« Edited: October 21, 2015, 05:53:44 PM by TNvolunteer »

Remember when people called me insane for rating this race "leans Democratic"? lol

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Could we see a Blanching here?

No. It's Kelly Ayotte, not Ken Ayotte, after all.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2015, 04:21:26 PM »

\O/
  |
 /\

If this trend continues, the Dems basically have five new seats in the bag already (NH, WI, IL, FL, OH).
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2015, 04:41:09 PM »

\O/
  |
 /\

If this trend continues, the Dems basically have five new seats in the bag already (NH, WI, IL, FL, OH).

Ohio is not in the bag, and Florida might have Grayson as the nominee so that's a huge * right there.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2015, 04:48:25 PM »

\O/
  |
 /\

If this trend continues, the Dems basically have five new seats in the bag already (NH, WI, IL, FL, OH).

Ohio is not in the bag, and Florida might have Grayson as the nominee so that's a huge * right there.



I mean, you could argue that Quinnipac has a Dem bias, but (a) it doesn't and (b) the evidence is compelling regardless. A challenger consistently polling ahead of an incumbent in a state with such close politics so early in the cycle leads to a pretty definitive conclusion.

And Grayson is leading in the polls too FYI.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2015, 06:29:38 PM »

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Could we see a Blanching here?

It won't be that bad. Whatever happens she will not be the biggest R loser even in a Democratic wave (Kirk will go down hardest, followed by Johnson). But having an approval rating of 40% or lower puts her in a weak position for an incumbent.

Being defeated 52-47 or 68-31 has the same legal result.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2015, 07:07:16 PM »

Susan Collins and Capito will be the only moderate R 's left.
Kirk & Ayotte will be defeated.

As far as others Portman will follow.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2015, 08:07:14 PM »

Susan Collins and Capito will be the only moderate R 's left.
Kirk & Ayotte will be defeated.

As far as others Portman will follow.

Right, because Murkowski, Paul, Graham, and McCain (for example) don't exist.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2015, 08:23:53 PM »

By what metric is Rand Paul a moderate?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2015, 08:47:37 PM »

There is no way that these races are in the bag this far out.  However, the Democrats have had n nearly flawless recruiting so far. That's a good sign, but there's still a lot of time to go.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2015, 09:50:38 PM »

Democrat leads by one point, well within margin of error - LEANS D.
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Holmes
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« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2015, 10:04:14 PM »

Democrat leads by one point, well within margin of error - LEANS D.

It's a good start, anyway.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2015, 09:59:32 AM »

Let's not get cocky, this is still a toss-up.
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Skye
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2015, 12:27:57 PM »

Democrat leads by one point, well within margin of error - LEANS D.
/s
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Bismarck
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2015, 12:41:47 PM »

Let's not get cocky, this is still a toss-up.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2015, 01:01:23 PM »

With Clinton likely a winning NH, by probably four points over Trump, a one point margin win swell to 3-4 pointa at end anyways.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2015, 10:35:14 PM »

Dems in OH/FL/NH are looking good but hardly "in the bag."

IL and WI are looking like they are probably in the bag.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2015, 01:55:54 PM »

We don't know yet whether 2016 will be a D wave year or an ordinary year. Democrats must gain four net Senate seats and win the Presidency (the VP is the President of the Senate) or five without the Presidency. Republicans have more vulnerable Senate seats.

One pattern in a wave year is that the winning side wins most of the close races. That's how 2016, 2010, and 2014 worked 
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Türkisblau
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2015, 02:19:36 PM »

Safe D obv
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2015, 02:22:36 PM »

\O/
  |
 /\

If this trend continues, the Dems basically have five new seats in the bag already (NH, WI, IL, FL, OH).

Ohio is not in the bag, and Florida might have Grayson as the nominee so that's a huge * right there.



I mean, you could argue that Quinnipac has a Dem bias, but (a) it doesn't and (b) the evidence is compelling regardless. A challenger consistently polling ahead of an incumbent in a state with such close politics so early in the cycle leads to a pretty definitive conclusion.

And Grayson is leading in the polls too FYI.
Rob Portman has been an excellent senator - it would be a shame if Ohio replaced him with loser Ted Strickland.
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