NH: PPP: Hassan +1

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Could we see a Blanching here?

It won't be that bad. Whatever happens she will not be the biggest R loser even in a Democratic wave (Kirk will go down hardest, followed by Johnson). But having an approval rating of 40% or lower puts her in a weak position for an incumbent.

Being defeated 52-47 or 68-31 has the same legal result.

[pbrower2a]

We don't know yet whether 2016 will be a D wave year or an ordinary year. Democrats must gain four net Senate seats and win the Presidency (the VP is the President of the Senate) or five without the Presidency. Republicans have more vulnerable Senate seats.

One pattern in a wave year is that the winning side wins most of the close races. That's how 2016, 2010, and 2014 worked