MT-AL: Juneau may run

[Miles]

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[Ebsy]

She's welcome to try, I suppose.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R

[smoltchanov]

Likely R

About that. Democrats need a wave or very grave mistake on Republican part to win it..

[PAK Man]

It amazes me that Democrats have been elected statewide to both senate seats, the governor's mansion and several statewide offices in recent years, yet the At-Large House district has always been elusive to them (Nancy Keenan came the closest to winning in 2000, but lost by 5 points to Denny Rehberg). Juneau would probably be the most serious contender for the seat in years if Democrats got her to run, so I'm all for her going for it. I know she's been talked about as a possible senate candidate for awhile.

[Del Tachi]

If I were Juneau, I'd wait until the seat opens up in 2018 when Zinke tries to take down Tester.  Tester's campaign would bolster her numbers substantially, and I think she could win an open seat. 

[smoltchanov]

If I were Juneau, I'd wait until the seat opens up in 2018 when Zinke tries to take down Tester.  Tester's campaign would bolster her numbers substantially, and I think she could win an open seat. 

Midterms.. They are almost invariably bad for Democrats now, as their base becomes more and more minority-oriented....

[Del Tachi]

If I were Juneau, I'd wait until the seat opens up in 2018 when Zinke tries to take down Tester.  Tester's campaign would bolster her numbers substantially, and I think she could win an open seat. 

Midterms.. They are almost invariably bad for Democrats now, as their base becomes more and more minority-oriented....

May not be the case if there's a incumbent Republican president in 2018; however, I suspect in such a scenario Zinke would prefer to stay in the House and not challenge Tester.  Zinke could still go down to Juneau if 2018 turns-out to be a pretty hostile environment for the GOP. 

[Brittain33]

If it's Hillary vs. Trump in 2016, it's the best opportunity Juneau will ever have to make this run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If it's Hillary vs. Trump in 2016, it's the best opportunity Juneau will ever have to make this run.

Its the best opportunity for Dems in congressman races all over.

[Miles]

Juneau filed papers with the FEC for this race.

[Miles]

Yep, Juneau is running.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, I hope she wins.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Democrats need Montana to be competitive at every office. Small states are too often overlooked. Glad they're fielding a relevant candidate.

[Rooney]

Her history with teen pregnancy will kill her with Christian "values" voters.

[Miles]

^ Montana conservatives seem to be more libertarian-ish than socon anyway.

[Zioneer]

Great, Juneau is probably the best candidate Democrats can get here, besides Governor Bullock. And I doubt he'd be interested in a House seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock will probably run against Daines in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock will probably run against Daines in 2020.

He'll be lucky to get reelected next year, he stands no chance of defeating Daines in 2020.

Back to the topic, this race is likely R. Republicans need to run strong campaigns if they want to win in a purple state like Montana, but all things considered I think Zinke should be fine (especially since this is the House district and not a Senate race). 

Bullock will win reelection, but Dems strongly are favored in Senate races in presidential years. Is it important as def Ernst or Gardner or Tillis no. But, Sullivan or Daines will have competition.

[kansasdemocrat]

Bullock will probably run against Daines in 2020.

He'll be lucky to get reelected next year, he stands no chance of defeating Daines in 2020.

Back to the topic, this race is likely R. Republicans need to run strong campaigns if they want to win in a purple state like Montana, but all things considered I think Zinke should be fine (especially since this is the House district and not a Senate race). 

He's a fairly popular governor. He's likely to be reelected.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

If I were Juneau, I'd wait until the seat opens up in 2018 when Zinke tries to take down Tester.  Tester's campaign would bolster her numbers substantially, and I think she could win an open seat. 

Midterms.. They are almost invariably bad for Democrats now, as their base becomes more and more minority-oriented....

Democrats can hold red state seats in midterms (sometimes, but picking one up, especially a statewide one, would be very difficult. Zinke is also a strong candidate, although I don't know much about the bench.

Democrats need Montana to be competitive at every office. Small states are too often overlooked. Glad they're fielding a relevant candidate.

Montana is not a small state.

[Zioneer]

If I were Juneau, I'd wait until the seat opens up in 2018 when Zinke tries to take down Tester.  Tester's campaign would bolster her numbers substantially, and I think she could win an open seat.  

Midterms.. They are almost invariably bad for Democrats now, as their base becomes more and more minority-oriented....

Democrats can hold red state seats in midterms (sometimes, but picking one up, especially a statewide one, would be very difficult. Zinke is also a strong candidate, although I don't know much about the bench.

Democrats need Montana to be competitive at every office. Small states are too often overlooked. Glad they're fielding a relevant candidate.

Montana is not a small state.

As long as it has very few electoral votes and only one US Representative, it's always going to be a small state. Heck, Utah is a small state, and we have 4 Reps. Small meaning population of course.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Democrats need Montana to be competitive at every office. Small states are too often overlooked. Glad they're fielding a relevant candidate.

Montana is not a small state.

What?? Montana is 44th in population out of the 50 states....

[Miles]

Strong fundraising report from Juneau: $264K in 8 weeks.

[Zioneer]

Strong fundraising report from Juneau: $264K in 8 weeks.

Excellent. She seems like an excellent candidate. And assuming things fall apart on the GOP presidential ticket, that should have downballot effects that help her.