The Mideast Record-Courier: LIVE Coverage of the October Election (GRIFFIN WINS)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Election Weekend October '15

Good Evening, and welcome to the Mideast Record-Courier's coverage of the October '15 national election! In just a few hours, citizens across the nation will take up the task of choosing our next president, in addition to a number of other national and local officials who will shape Atlasia for the next four months. As Atlasia's oldest and most trusted news source, we will provide semi-regular coverage of the balloting throughout the weekend, so as to keep our readers up-to-date with the ever shifting landscape that is national politics.

Note the map directly below this text: as results for president begin to come in, we will color the map according to which candidate is ahead in each of the five Regions. Regions in which Registrar General Griffin has the lead will be shaded red; Regions in which Senator Cris is ahead will be shaded blue; and Regions in which Senator SWE is leading will be shaded gold. Below the presidential map, you will find information concerning the partisan composition of the new Senate.

Many thanks and happy voting!

Harry S Truman
Editor, Mideast Record-Courier

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - OCTOBER '15

GRIFFIN: 4    CRIS: 1    SWE: 0

THE SENATE - OCTOBER '15

69^th: 3 CR 4 FED 0 LAB 1 MAGA 1 TPP 0 IND 0 NNP 1 Vacant
70^th: 2 CR 4 FED 0 LAB 1 MAGA 1 TPP 1 IND 1 NNP 0 Toss-up

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The polls will not open for several more hours, but a small portion of the electorate has already voted in the presidential election via absentee ballot. In all, two citizens - both from the Northeast - were approved to vote absentee in advance of this weekend's election; a third citizen, DC Al Fine, cast a ballot in the Absentee Voting thread but did not receive authorization from the Department of Federal Elections. The results of this early balloting are as follows:

FOR PRESIDENT (2% Turnout)
Cris (CR): 1 (50%)
Griffin (LAB): 1 (50%)
SWE (NNP): 0 (0%)


While meager turnout prevents us from drawing conclusions about the eventual victory at this point, it is interesting to note that 100% of those who voted by absentee ballot listed NNP candidate SWE as their second preference, a surprising phenomenon given the large similarities between Senator Cris and RG Griffin, both of whom have been at odds with NNP in recent weeks.

No absentee ballots have been cast in any of the Senatorial races.

[Classic Conservative]

This is going to be one exciting election.

[Clyde1998]

It looks like the Mideast is going to vote for Griffin - currently seven of the eight votes have backed him there. There have been some interesting votes when you consider party membership too - at least one member of the Federalists and Civic Renewal have backed Griffin over Cris.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Preliminary results are beginning to trickle in for the presidential race: according to the latest returns, Registrar General Griffin or the Labor Party leads his strongest opponent, Senator Cris, by a margin of over twelve points, while NNP candidate SWE trails with roughly 15% of the vote:

FOR PRESIDENT (21% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 16 (48.5%)
Cris (CR): 12 (36.4%)
SWE (NNP): 5 (15.2%)

Though he falls just short of a majority in the first round, this is nevertheless good news for Mr. Griffin, who was considered the underdog heading into election weekend. Crucially, he has managed to make inroads with conservative voters in the South and Midwest and currently stands to gain most of SWE's transfers in the second round, making him the odds-on favorite to win should these numbers hold.

In terms of the Regional distribution of the vote, Mr. Griffin currently holds a 76-point lead in the Mideast and more tenuous majorities in the Midwest and his native South, while Senator Cris is leading in the Northeast and Pacific. The NNP ticket is unsurprisingly polling best in the Northeast, where it is in third with 17% of the vote.

[rpryor03]

Northeast Results
As of Grumps

Assembly
Clyde: 2
Evergreen: 2
Kent: 2
DemPGH: 1
Enduro: 1
RGN: 1

As of right now, the Assembly would be: Clyde, evergreen, Kent, DemPGH, and Enduro.

Governor
Blair: 5
Clyde: 4

Cabinet Amendment
Aye: 7
Nay: 1
Not Voting: 1

Independence Amendment
Aye: 4
Nay: 4
Not Voting: 1

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

And now for an update on the state of the Senate:

FOR NE SENATE (21% Turnout)
Rpryor (CR): 5 (50%)
Oakvale (NNP): 5 (50%)

The race is tied neck-and-neck in what is arguably the most competitive election on the ballot this weekend. Incumbent Northeast Senator Rpryor currently holds 50% of the ten votes cast at this time, with NNP challenger Oakvale claiming the other half. With a competitive race for Northeast Governor and a referendum on independence on the ballot, this seat is sure to be hotly contested as the night goes on.

FOR ME SENATE (20% Turnout)
Barnes (IND): 7 (100%)
JCL (FED): 0 (0%)

In the Mideast, meanwhile, the picture is decidedly different: former Secretary of Internal Affairs Roy Barnes currently holds 100% of the vote, with turnout at 20%. If current returns are any indication, Barnes appears to have the united support of the Region's progressive majority, which has withstood recent national gains by right-leaning parties. While the Mideast Record-Courier will refrain from issuing a projection at this time, this is excellent news for Mr. Barnes and his supporters.

FOR SO SENATE (14% Turnout)
PiT (FED): 3 (75%)
Others: 25%

In the South, incumbent Senator PiT is running for reelection unopposed and currently leads with 75% of the vote, compared to 25% for write-in candidates. While the possibility of a draft campaign for former Senator SWE still exists, in all likelihood the senator will be reelected comfortably.

FOR MW SENATE (12% Turnout)
Maxwell (MAGA): 3 (75%)
Others: 25%

Likewise, incumbent Senator Maxwell is running without an opponent on the ballot in the Midwest, following his appointment to fill the Region's vacant Senate seat earlier this week. Turnout in this Region is still very low, but so far no significant challenge to the senator's candidacy has emerged, with many of the Region's most active citizens granting him their first preference.

FOR PA SENATE (19% Turnout)
Lumine Von Reuental (CR): 4 (100%)
Nagas (LAB): 0 (0%)

After re-entering the race just hours before the filing deadline, incumbent Senator Lumine Von Reuental currently holds 100% of the vote, with Labor challenger Nagas so far failing to win a single ballot. As with Barnes in the Mideast, it is still too early to make an official projection at this point, but it would appear that Von Reuental is on-track to win reelection in Atlasia's westernmost Region.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Griffin winning the South? He couldn't beat JCL there, so I highly doubt Cris loses it considering it is more conservative now then it was in February. Of course it is also more Libertarian and Griffin has a long history of winning over libertarians.

[Adam Griffin]

Did my own count from scratch, a small change to the original numbers:

FOR PRESIDENT (27% Turnout) (Last Voter: Griffin)

FIRST ROUND
Griffin (LAB): 21 (48.8%)
Cris (CR): 14 (32.6%)
SWE (NNP): 8 (18.6%)

FINAL ROUND
Griffin (LAB): 25 (58.1%)
Cris (CR): 14 (32.6%)
Exhausted: 4 (9.3%)


INVALID: 1 (Pessimistic Antineutrino)


Results by Region (Full Image)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Its amazing how Labor has become the Party of the Heartland whilst the Coasts are hostile.

Actually, this isn't the first time that the inland red sea was surrounded by a belt of blue.





Avatarism, nothing like corrupting standards for the sake of a one shot reference.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With turnout tickling the 30% mark, Registrar General Griffin maintains his lead in the presidential race, where he is currently only a few votes short of an absolute majority. Results as of the most recent ballot show him outpolling his nearest opponent - At-Large Senator Cris - by a margin of nearly 16 points in the first round, with transfers from NNP candidate SWE giving him a commanding majority in a hypothetical second round.

FOR PRESIDENT (29% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 22 (48.9%)
Cris (CR): 15 (33.3%)
SWE (NNP): 8 (17.8%)

Note that these results do not include the votes of Pingvin (who voted before the polls opened at 1 AM EDT) and DC Al Fine (who voted in the absentee voting thread but did not receive authorization from the DoFE).

Insofar, the Regional map remains unchanged from out last update, although Senator Cris has lost ground in the Pacific and the Northeast, while Mr. Griffin has gained marginally in the South. The Mideast, meanwhile, remains the least competitive of the five Regions, with the Labor ticket continuing to hold more than 80% of the vote.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

FOR NE SENATE (27% Turnout)
Oakvale (NNP): 7 (53.8%)
Rpryor (CR): 6 (46.2%%)

NNP challenger Oakvale currently leads incumbent Senator Rpryor by a single vote, with turnout at roughly 27%. Interestingly, Mr. Oakvale - whose party is best known for its support for an independent Northeast - owes his current lead to anti-secession voters who have opposed the Northeast Independence Amendment at the polls: current counts show 40% of Northeast voters in favor of independence and 60% opposed, with some of those who voted for Mr. Oakvale casting "NAY" votes in the referendum. While it is still too early to project the outcome of either contest, this is indeed an interesting scenario to contemplate, as it would be difficult for either side of the independence issue to claim a mandate.

FOR ME SENATE (28% Turnout)
Barnes (IND): 9 (90%)
JCL (FED): 1 (10%)

In the Mideast, meanwhile, independent candidate Roy Barnes leads his Federalist opponent, Assemblyman JCL, by an overwhelming margin. While JCL is no longer complete shut out of the balloting, current tabulations show him with just 10% of the electorate, compared to 90% for Mr. Barnes. There is, however, some cause for hope for the JCL campaign: so far, the only vote cast for the Federalist candidate comes from former Labor chairman Hifly. Unwise as it is to draw conclusions from a single ballot, if Mr. Hifly's vote is indicative of a larger trend of pro-life Laborites supporting Mr. JCL, it would suggest that this race may well tighten considerably before all is said and done.

FOR SO SENATE (18% Turnout)
PiT (FED): 4 (80%)
Others: 1 (20%)

Leading by a similar margin in the South is incumbent Senator PiT, who has so far defied any attempts to unseat him via a write-in campaign. While the Courier will refrain from making a projection at this time, this is very good news for Senator PiT, who is the only incumbent Federalist on the federal ballot this weekend.


FOR MW SENATE (27% Turnout)
Maxwell (MAGA): 6 (85.7%)
Others: 1 (14.3%)

Likewise, newly-appointed Senator Maxwell is holding his own in the Midwest, with write-in bids for former Governor Ilikeverin and former Rep. RFayette so far failing to unseat the self-described "radical." As with the South, we will refrain from projecting the outcome of this race for the present, but if the numbers in this race do not change significantly in the next few hours, it is unlikely that Mr. Maxwell will have cause to draft a concession speech.

FOR PA SENATE (19% Turnout)
Lumine Von Reuental (CR): 5 (83.3%)
Nagas (LAB): 1 (16.7%)

Finally, in the Pacific, incumbent Senator Lumine Von Reuental leads Labor challenger Nagas by an astounding margin, 83% to Nagas' 17%. Crucially, Mr. Von Reuental has won support even from voters who did not first-preference his party's candidate in the presidential race. This is bad news indeed for Mr. Nagas, who needed to consolidate "radical" voters behind his candidacy in order to have a chance of unseating his opponent, and whose window of opportunity is now noticeably smaller than it was a week ago.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

RG Griffin has crossed the halfway mark in the presidential race, where he now holds 25-point lead over his nearest opponent. Current projections show Mr. Griffin with roughly 54% of the vote compared to 29% for Senator Cris and 17% for former Senator SWE.

FOR PRESIDENT (30% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 26 (54.2%)
Cris (CR): 14 (29.2%)
SWE (NNP): 8 (16.7%)

With over two thirds of the electorate still to vote, it is not out of the question that Griffin's lead could dissipate as the weekend wears on, and the possibility of an upset for Mr. Cris or Mr. SWE should not be discounted. Nevertheless, this is excellent news for the Labor Party, which faces a bleak state of affairs in down ballot races.

On the electoral map, Mr. Griffin's rise has coincided with larger majorities in the Midwest, South, and Mideast, where he leads by increasingly large margins. Meanwhile, Senator Cris has lost his lead in the Northeast, where he is now tied with Mr. Griffin, though he continues to outpoll both of his opponents in the Pacific.

[Adam Griffin]

FOR PRESIDENT (40% Turnout)
Last Voter: BaconBacon96

FIRST ROUND
Griffin (LAB): 33 (51.6%)
Cris (CR): 22 (34.4%)
SWE (NNP): 9 (14.0%)

HYPOTHETICAL FINAL ROUND
Griffin (LAB): 37 (57.8%)
Cris (CR): 23 (35.9%)
Exhausted: 4 (6.3%)


CROSSTABS BY IDEOLOGY

LEFT VOTERS - FIRST ROUND
81% - Griff
15% - SWE
04% - Cris

CENTER VOTERS - FIRST ROUND
57% - Griff
43% - SWE

RIGHT VOTERS - FIRST ROUND
70% - Cris
23% - Griff
07% - SWE



LEFT VOTERS - FINAL ROUND
93% - Griff
04% - Cris
03% - Exhausted

CENTER VOTERS - FINAL ROUND
57% - Griff
28% - Exhausted
15% - Cris

RIGHT VOTERS - FINAL ROUND
70% - Cris
27% - Griff
03% - Exhausted


VOTES BY REGION

Full-Size Image

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Griffin must not win the South. He mustn't. Never forget, Never Forget 2012!!!


I am just playing, but seriously five region sweep is crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Griffin must not win the South. He mustn't. Never forget, Never Forget 2012!!!


I am just playing, but seriously five region sweep is crazy.

Do you really want the South to continue having the mantle of Snowstalker being the only left-wing candidate in modern history that it has supported? I think not!

[Classic Conservative]

What do you qualify as Right, Left and Center???

[Adam Griffin]

What do you qualify as Right, Left and Center???

Based on typical voter behavior as observed by me. I may not be a completely objective measurement, but who is? I tend to know more about the overall voting behavior of each person, though. For instance, there are a few people who are real-life Dems but who always vote conservative in Atlasia; those people get classified as Right, for instance.

People can take a look for themselves to see how each person is classified, proceed to find a few exceptions where they disagree, and complain about it.

[Lumine]

30% of center-right votes for Griffin?

I swear to the gods, the right deserves what's coming to it...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

30% of center-right votes for Griffin?

I swear to the gods, the right deserves what's coming to it...

Because of the disunity on the right (and I don't mean party either, I mean factions that cross party lines), I would think that such levels is a regular occurance though it probably dipped lower for you and Duke (like 15%-20% defection instead of 30%). Griffin pealed off a lot of libertarians. The big factor here is the lower turnout, which is elevating that defection %. In terms of the election itself, the center voter is just brutal here for Cris.

[Lumine]

30% of center-right votes for Griffin?

I swear to the gods, the right deserves what's coming to it...

Because of the disunity on the right (and I don't mean party either, I mean factions that cross party lines), I would think that such levels is a regular occurance though it probably dipped lower for you and Duke (like 15%-20% defection instead of 30%). Griffin pealed off a lot of libertarians. The big factor here is the lower turnout, which is elevating that defection %. In terms of the election itself, the center voter is just brutal here for Cris.

Oh, I broadly agree, but it still surprises me that some past elections cycles have seen a good deal of center-right votes moving towards Labor (and in some cases making the Labor victory possible, like June 2014). It doesn't make it less frustrating, though...

[Classic Conservative]

After everything is said and done I'd love to see a county map!

[Adam Griffin]

30% of center-right votes for Griffin?

I swear to the gods, the right deserves what's coming to it...

Because of the disunity on the right (and I don't mean party either, I mean factions that cross party lines), I would think that such levels is a regular occurance though it probably dipped lower for you and Duke (like 15%-20% defection instead of 30%). Griffin pealed off a lot of libertarians. The big factor here is the lower turnout, which is elevating that defection %. In terms of the election itself, the center voter is just brutal here for Cris.

Libertarians love and have always loved me because I stand up for freedom and fairness, and would much sooner turn warhawk Lumine into a sheet of glass than invade a foreign country!

Lumine is of course just frustrated that he was never handed a Glorious Mandate™ by left, right and center alike. Though he did peel off practically all of the centrists in that election after the notorious smear campaign against Labor had taken its toll in the preceding months, he never made real inward roads with reliable left-wing voters. My ability to drive a narrative is unsurpassed: I strove to make this election solely about the importance of a strong leader in difficult times, and at least thus far, the electorate seems to agree. I hate to brag, but people really underestimate me, including myself. The current results are astonishing.

Fat lady and all of that, though - I'm still expecting shenanigans as we enter the final hours and will remain paranoid as always. However, it is worth noting that the only person in recent memory to ever close a double-digit margin of loss in the final hours was...well, me.

[Lumine]

Funny, I find the obscure reference from where you advocated to turn Iraq into a sheet of glass (well played, btw) more interesting than those political pearls of wisdom you've just dropped.

That said, the day is bound to be interesting, this election seems to have passed by rather quickly (and with miserable turnout, which is sad too).

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout figures thus far (as of Leinad):

16.67% ANUS      
41.86% Fed   
42.86% Ind
46.15% TPP
47.50% Total   
47.50% Lab      
62.50% Other   
70.00% CR
75.00% NNP   
83.33% D-R

Just dispelling some talking points here. Even though the nominal voter turnout is lower, the composition of the electorate really isn't any different than what we usually see in elections from each party (smallest parties with the highest turnout, Labor on average or slightly above game total turnout, Federalist somewhat below average on turnout). The only stark difference in this election compared to past ones is TPP's lack of turnout.