The Mideast Record-Courier: LIVE Coverage of the October Election (GRIFFIN WINS)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Election Weekend October '15

Good Evening, and welcome to the Mideast Record-Courier's coverage of the October '15 national election! In just a few hours, citizens across the nation will take up the task of choosing our next president, in addition to a number of other national and local officials who will shape Atlasia for the next four months. As Atlasia's oldest and most trusted news source, we will provide semi-regular coverage of the balloting throughout the weekend, so as to keep our readers up-to-date with the ever shifting landscape that is national politics.

Note the map directly below this text: as results for president begin to come in, we will color the map according to which candidate is ahead in each of the five Regions. Regions in which Registrar General Griffin has the lead will be shaded red; Regions in which Senator Cris is ahead will be shaded blue; and Regions in which Senator SWE is leading will be shaded gold. Below the presidential map, you will find information concerning the partisan composition of the new Senate.

Many thanks and happy voting!

Harry S Truman
Editor, Mideast Record-Courier

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - OCTOBER '15

GRIFFIN: 4    CRIS: 1    SWE: 0

THE SENATE - OCTOBER '15

69^th: 3 CR 4 FED 0 LAB 1 MAGA 1 TPP 0 IND 0 NNP 1 Vacant
70^th: 2 CR 4 FED 0 LAB 1 MAGA 1 TPP 1 IND 1 NNP 0 Toss-up

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

The polls will not open for several more hours, but a small portion of the electorate has already voted in the presidential election via absentee ballot. In all, two citizens - both from the Northeast - were approved to vote absentee in advance of this weekend's election; a third citizen, DC Al Fine, cast a ballot in the Absentee Voting thread but did not receive authorization from the Department of Federal Elections. The results of this early balloting are as follows:

FOR PRESIDENT (2% Turnout)
Cris (CR): 1 (50%)
Griffin (LAB): 1 (50%)
SWE (NNP): 0 (0%)


While meager turnout prevents us from drawing conclusions about the eventual victory at this point, it is interesting to note that 100% of those who voted by absentee ballot listed NNP candidate SWE as their second preference, a surprising phenomenon given the large similarities between Senator Cris and RG Griffin, both of whom have been at odds with NNP in recent weeks.

No absentee ballots have been cast in any of the Senatorial races.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Preliminary results are beginning to trickle in for the presidential race: according to the latest returns, Registrar General Griffin or the Labor Party leads his strongest opponent, Senator Cris, by a margin of over twelve points, while NNP candidate SWE trails with roughly 15% of the vote:

FOR PRESIDENT (21% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 16 (48.5%)
Cris (CR): 12 (36.4%)
SWE (NNP): 5 (15.2%)

Though he falls just short of a majority in the first round, this is nevertheless good news for Mr. Griffin, who was considered the underdog heading into election weekend. Crucially, he has managed to make inroads with conservative voters in the South and Midwest and currently stands to gain most of SWE's transfers in the second round, making him the odds-on favorite to win should these numbers hold.

In terms of the Regional distribution of the vote, Mr. Griffin currently holds a 76-point lead in the Mideast and more tenuous majorities in the Midwest and his native South, while Senator Cris is leading in the Northeast and Pacific. The NNP ticket is unsurprisingly polling best in the Northeast, where it is in third with 17% of the vote.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

And now for an update on the state of the Senate:

FOR NE SENATE (21% Turnout)
Rpryor (CR): 5 (50%)
Oakvale (NNP): 5 (50%)

The race is tied neck-and-neck in what is arguably the most competitive election on the ballot this weekend. Incumbent Northeast Senator Rpryor currently holds 50% of the ten votes cast at this time, with NNP challenger Oakvale claiming the other half. With a competitive race for Northeast Governor and a referendum on independence on the ballot, this seat is sure to be hotly contested as the night goes on.

FOR ME SENATE (20% Turnout)
Barnes (IND): 7 (100%)
JCL (FED): 0 (0%)

In the Mideast, meanwhile, the picture is decidedly different: former Secretary of Internal Affairs Roy Barnes currently holds 100% of the vote, with turnout at 20%. If current returns are any indication, Barnes appears to have the united support of the Region's progressive majority, which has withstood recent national gains by right-leaning parties. While the Mideast Record-Courier will refrain from issuing a projection at this time, this is excellent news for Mr. Barnes and his supporters.

FOR SO SENATE (14% Turnout)
PiT (FED): 3 (75%)
Others: 25%

In the South, incumbent Senator PiT is running for reelection unopposed and currently leads with 75% of the vote, compared to 25% for write-in candidates. While the possibility of a draft campaign for former Senator SWE still exists, in all likelihood the senator will be reelected comfortably.

FOR MW SENATE (12% Turnout)
Maxwell (MAGA): 3 (75%)
Others: 25%

Likewise, incumbent Senator Maxwell is running without an opponent on the ballot in the Midwest, following his appointment to fill the Region's vacant Senate seat earlier this week. Turnout in this Region is still very low, but so far no significant challenge to the senator's candidacy has emerged, with many of the Region's most active citizens granting him their first preference.

FOR PA SENATE (19% Turnout)
Lumine Von Reuental (CR): 4 (100%)
Nagas (LAB): 0 (0%)

After re-entering the race just hours before the filing deadline, incumbent Senator Lumine Von Reuental currently holds 100% of the vote, with Labor challenger Nagas so far failing to win a single ballot. As with Barnes in the Mideast, it is still too early to make an official projection at this point, but it would appear that Von Reuental is on-track to win reelection in Atlasia's westernmost Region.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With turnout tickling the 30% mark, Registrar General Griffin maintains his lead in the presidential race, where he is currently only a few votes short of an absolute majority. Results as of the most recent ballot show him outpolling his nearest opponent - At-Large Senator Cris - by a margin of nearly 16 points in the first round, with transfers from NNP candidate SWE giving him a commanding majority in a hypothetical second round.

FOR PRESIDENT (29% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 22 (48.9%)
Cris (CR): 15 (33.3%)
SWE (NNP): 8 (17.8%)

Note that these results do not include the votes of Pingvin (who voted before the polls opened at 1 AM EDT) and DC Al Fine (who voted in the absentee voting thread but did not receive authorization from the DoFE).

Insofar, the Regional map remains unchanged from out last update, although Senator Cris has lost ground in the Pacific and the Northeast, while Mr. Griffin has gained marginally in the South. The Mideast, meanwhile, remains the least competitive of the five Regions, with the Labor ticket continuing to hold more than 80% of the vote.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

FOR NE SENATE (27% Turnout)
Oakvale (NNP): 7 (53.8%)
Rpryor (CR): 6 (46.2%%)

NNP challenger Oakvale currently leads incumbent Senator Rpryor by a single vote, with turnout at roughly 27%. Interestingly, Mr. Oakvale - whose party is best known for its support for an independent Northeast - owes his current lead to anti-secession voters who have opposed the Northeast Independence Amendment at the polls: current counts show 40% of Northeast voters in favor of independence and 60% opposed, with some of those who voted for Mr. Oakvale casting "NAY" votes in the referendum. While it is still too early to project the outcome of either contest, this is indeed an interesting scenario to contemplate, as it would be difficult for either side of the independence issue to claim a mandate.

FOR ME SENATE (28% Turnout)
Barnes (IND): 9 (90%)
JCL (FED): 1 (10%)

In the Mideast, meanwhile, independent candidate Roy Barnes leads his Federalist opponent, Assemblyman JCL, by an overwhelming margin. While JCL is no longer complete shut out of the balloting, current tabulations show him with just 10% of the electorate, compared to 90% for Mr. Barnes. There is, however, some cause for hope for the JCL campaign: so far, the only vote cast for the Federalist candidate comes from former Labor chairman Hifly. Unwise as it is to draw conclusions from a single ballot, if Mr. Hifly's vote is indicative of a larger trend of pro-life Laborites supporting Mr. JCL, it would suggest that this race may well tighten considerably before all is said and done.

FOR SO SENATE (18% Turnout)
PiT (FED): 4 (80%)
Others: 1 (20%)

Leading by a similar margin in the South is incumbent Senator PiT, who has so far defied any attempts to unseat him via a write-in campaign. While the Courier will refrain from making a projection at this time, this is very good news for Senator PiT, who is the only incumbent Federalist on the federal ballot this weekend.


FOR MW SENATE (27% Turnout)
Maxwell (MAGA): 6 (85.7%)
Others: 1 (14.3%)

Likewise, newly-appointed Senator Maxwell is holding his own in the Midwest, with write-in bids for former Governor Ilikeverin and former Rep. RFayette so far failing to unseat the self-described "radical." As with the South, we will refrain from projecting the outcome of this race for the present, but if the numbers in this race do not change significantly in the next few hours, it is unlikely that Mr. Maxwell will have cause to draft a concession speech.

FOR PA SENATE (19% Turnout)
Lumine Von Reuental (CR): 5 (83.3%)
Nagas (LAB): 1 (16.7%)

Finally, in the Pacific, incumbent Senator Lumine Von Reuental leads Labor challenger Nagas by an astounding margin, 83% to Nagas' 17%. Crucially, Mr. Von Reuental has won support even from voters who did not first-preference his party's candidate in the presidential race. This is bad news indeed for Mr. Nagas, who needed to consolidate "radical" voters behind his candidacy in order to have a chance of unseating his opponent, and whose window of opportunity is now noticeably smaller than it was a week ago.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

RG Griffin has crossed the halfway mark in the presidential race, where he now holds 25-point lead over his nearest opponent. Current projections show Mr. Griffin with roughly 54% of the vote compared to 29% for Senator Cris and 17% for former Senator SWE.

FOR PRESIDENT (30% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 26 (54.2%)
Cris (CR): 14 (29.2%)
SWE (NNP): 8 (16.7%)

With over two thirds of the electorate still to vote, it is not out of the question that Griffin's lead could dissipate as the weekend wears on, and the possibility of an upset for Mr. Cris or Mr. SWE should not be discounted. Nevertheless, this is excellent news for the Labor Party, which faces a bleak state of affairs in down ballot races.

On the electoral map, Mr. Griffin's rise has coincided with larger majorities in the Midwest, South, and Mideast, where he leads by increasingly large margins. Meanwhile, Senator Cris has lost his lead in the Northeast, where he is now tied with Mr. Griffin, though he continues to outpoll both of his opponents in the Pacific.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With less than two hours before the polls close, Registrar General Griffin is still in the lead, with both of his opponents far behind as of the most recent count. Current projections show the Labor candidate just a few votes below an absolute majority in the first round, nearly 12 points ahead of his nearest opponent, Senator Cris. Barring a late surge, NNP candidate SWE would be eliminated in the first round, with enough of his votes transferring to Mr. Griffin to give him a majority over Mr. Cris.

FOR PRESIDENT (62% Turnout)
Griffin (LAB): 46 (47.9%)
Cris (CR): 35 (36.5%)
SWE (NNP): 15 (15.6%)

On the electoral map, Mr. Griffin has majorities in four of the five Regions in the final round, including the Pacific and the Northeast, which favored Mr. Cris early in the balloting. While both the Pacific and the South remain quite close, in three Regions Mr. Griffin's lead is sufficient sizable for us to predict that he will carry them comfortably. In light of this, the Mideast Record-Courier will now issue the following projections:


✓ GRIFFIN (LAB)
has carried the Northeast
✓ GRIFFIN (LAB)
has carried the Mideast
✓ GRIFFIN (LAB)
has carried the Midwest

Both the Pacific, where Mr. Griffin has a one-vote final round lead, and the South, where he is tied with Senator Cris, remain too close to call.

While the numbers are liable to shift in the final count, it is unlikely that any candidate will have a majority in the first round by the time the polls close, meaning that the second-preferences of the least-popular candidate - currently Senator SWE - will decide the election. Current projections show most of SWE's votes either exhausting themselves or transferring to Mr. Griffin, giving him a respectable majority in the second and final round:

FOR PRESIDENT - FINAL ROUND
✓ Griffin (LAB): 52 (57.8%)
Cris (CR): 38 (42.2%)

Given the size of this lead - nearly 16 percentage points and a total of fourteen ballots - it is highly unlikely that Senator Cris will be able to stage an upset at this point. The Mideast Record-Courier therefore has the following projection to make:


✓GRIFFIN (LAB)
has been elected President

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

In addition, the Mideast Record-Courier has the following projections to make in regards to the Senate:


✓OAKVALE (NNP)
has been elected Northeast Senator
✓BARNES (IND)
has been elected Mideast Senator
✓PiT (FED)
has been elected Southern Senator
✓LUMINE (CR)
has been elected Pacific Senator

As of the most recent counts, all of these candidates hold sizable leads over their respective opponents, and we can predict with confidence that they will be joining the Senate come November. The race in the Midwest, where Senator Maxwell is currently neck-and-neck with write-in candidate RFayette, is currently too close to call.

Full results for each race are as follows:

FOR NE SENATE (56% Turnout)
✓Oakvale (NNP): 15 (62.5%)
Rpryor (CR): 9 (31.5%)

FOR ME SENATE (58% Turnout)
✓Barnes (IND): 14 (60.9%)
JCL (FED): 9 (39.1%)

FOR SO SENATE (46% Turnout)
✓PiT (FED): 11 (84.6%)
Others: 2 (15.4%)

FOR MW SENATE (77% Turnout)
Maxwell (MAGA): 9 (47.4%)
RFayette (TPP): 9 (47.4%)
Others: 1 (5.3%)

FOR NE SENATE (57% Turnout)
✓Lumine Von Reuental (CR): 8 (72.7%)
Nagas (LAB): 3 (27.3%)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Finally, we have two very important projections to make concerning the Northeast Regional election:


✓ BLAIR (LAB)
has been elected Northeast Governor
X NAY
The Northeast Independence Referendum has failed


With the voting period set to expire in less than an hour, we are confident in projecting both Mr. Blair's election and the success of the NO vote, both of which are leading by large margins in current counts. Full results of these contests are as follows:

FOR NORTHEAST GOVERNOR (52% Turnout)
✓Blair (LAB): 15 (65.2%)
Clyde (NNP): 8 (34.8%)

NORTHEAST INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM
✓NO: 14 (66.7%)
YES: 7 (33.3%)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Technically, Maxwell is ahead by 1 with Tmth's preference in the second round, which is where it would go since neither candidate has a majority in the first round.

True, but the vote is still very close, and conceivably someone could vote in the next 45 minutes and turn the race on its head.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

With the polls now closed, the Mideast Record-Courier has the following projections to make:


✓ GRIFFIN (LAB)
has carried the Pacific
✓ CRIS (LAB)
has carried the South
✓ MAXWELL (MAGA)
has been elected Midwest Senator

While initial projections showed Mr. Griffin leading in the South and Mr. Cris far ahead in the Pacific, later returns reversed both of these early leads, giving Griffin a two-vote final round majority in the Pacific and Cris a one-vote lead in the South.

Likewise, incumbent Senator Maxwell of the Midwest - who was initially the only candidate contesting his seat, only to see a surprisingly strong write-in campaign for former Rep. RFayette emerge late in the balloting - can now be projected to have won reelection by a single vote, giving the self-proclaimed "radical" faction a total of three seats in the Senate.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Indiana would beg to differ with you. Cris won Indiana.

Actually, the state was tied: you voted for Cris, I voted for Griffin. Griffin won the Mideast as a whole, though, which I suspect is how he broke the tie.