So the Lichtman Test so far

[Illiniwek]

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
Clearly FALSE
Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
FALSE
Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE
Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%, so FALSE.
Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
TRUE. Could change.
Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.
TRUE
Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term.
In this case, FALSE
Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
TRUE. The test requires that it be long and sustained, Ferguson doesn't qualify.
Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE.
Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
TRUE
Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.
Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE.
Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
Toss up: I guess charismatic, but definitely not a national hero.

So in my opinion, 6 true & 6 false, with one toss-up. Yikes....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtmann defined "serious contest" as the nominee winning less than 2/3 of the delegates. So serious contest means Sanders getting 1590 delegates (including supers). He's at 1409 right now. Due to proportional allocation, he is basically assured of getting there as long as he doesn't drop out. So FALSE.

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. Webb and Bloomberg are out, TRUMP is the R nominee. It's still possible butthurt Sanders supporters will vote for Stein en masse or a lot of establishment R's will vote for the libertarian nominee, or something, but until we have reason to believe this will actually happen, we have to assume TRUE.

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. UNKNOWN

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
AMBIGUOUS. The whole police brutality/BLM movement might qualify.

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Even if Hillary is indicted, she isn't part of the administration anymore, so it doesn't count here.

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
Barring any major development, TRUE

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.

Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE. Not true for Hillary, and actually even if Sanders manages to pull it off he wouldn't qualify either.

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
FALSE. TRUMP is extremely charismatic.

6 FALSE
5 TRUE
1 Unknown
1 Ambiguous

Six "False" is required for the incumbent party to lose. So it looks like President TRUMP.

[windjammer]

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtmann defined "serious contest" as the nominee winning less than 2/3 of the delegates. So serious contest means Sanders getting 1590 delegates (including supers). He's at 1409 right now. Due to proportional allocation, he is basically assured of getting there as long as he doesn't drop out. So FALSE.

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. Webb and Bloomberg are out, TRUMP is the R nominee. It's still possible butthurt Sanders supporters will vote for Stein en masse or a lot of establishment R's will vote for the libertarian nominee, or something, but until we have reason to believe this will actually happen, we have to assume TRUE.

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. UNKNOWN

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
AMBIGUOUS. The whole police brutality/BLM movement might qualify.

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Even if Hillary is indicted, she isn't part of the administration anymore, so it doesn't count here.

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
Barring any major development, TRUE

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.

Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE. Not true for Hillary, and actually even if Sanders manages to pull it off he wouldn't qualify either.

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
FALSE. TRUMP is extremely charismatic.

6 FALSE
5 TRUE
1 Unknown
1 Ambiguous

Six "False" is required for the incumbent party to lose. So it looks like President TRUMP.

Wulfric,
Trump may be a great orator but he would not get the last key anyone. You have to be a war hero or much more charismatic than he currently is to get this key. Look at how he's unpopular.

[Kingpoleon]

If he calculated from 1860-1980, why not check 1789-1856?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The Democrats don't have the Foreign Policy Success Key. The opening to Cuba and the Iran deal just don't measure up to what has won the key in the past. The former MIGHT count if the Cold War were still going on, but it isn't. The latter doesn't win the key because it is viewed through partisan lenses, and we've yet to see whether it will work or not.

I think all the chaos ISIS has been able to cause certainly comes close to toppling the Foreign Policy FAILURE key.

The most recent approval polls on Obama's foreign policy are upside down(http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval_foreign_policy-2821.html). Given the role public perception plays in the Keys, I think you could make a pretty good case for turning both foreign policy keys against him.

[SteveRogers]

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%, so FALSE.

Um, [Citation Needed]

Though I guess there's really no way to prove that one true until after the election. Man this test is dumb.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1856

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE, huge loss of seats

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
FALSE, the incumbent President got primaried after 17 ballots

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
FALSE, Filmore got 21%

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
TRUE

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.
UNDECIDED, there was a 1853-1854 recession

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term.
UNDECIDED, should the  Kansas-Nebraska Act count?

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
FALSE, Bleeding Kansas

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE, I guess

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
FALSE, Attempt to buy Cuba failed


Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
UNDECIDED, does Gadsden Purchase count?


Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE, I don't think his military service counts

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
UNDECIDED.  Fremont is considered by some to be a military hero


7 false, 2 true, 4 unknown for 1856 . I think we know why the Litchman test starts with 1860.

[Illiniwek]

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%, so FALSE.

Um, [Citation Needed]

Though I guess there's really no way to prove that one true until after the election. Man this test is dumb.

I kept that from the original post, so I don't have a citation.

[SteveRogers]

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%, so FALSE.

Um, [Citation Needed]

Though I guess there's really no way to prove that one true until after the election. Man this test is dumb.

I kept that from the original post, so I don't have a citation.

Ah I see. That one should be true then though.

[Illiniwek]

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%, so FALSE.

Um, [Citation Needed]

Though I guess there's really no way to prove that one true until after the election. Man this test is dumb.

I kept that from the original post, so I don't have a citation.

Ah I see. That one should be true then though.

Huh you're right. I think I got confused on the multiple-negatives. Let me attempt this again:

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE
Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
FALSE
Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE
Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
TRUE
Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
TRUE. (While this could change, no present reason to believe it will)
Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.
TRUE
Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term.
FALSE
Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
TRUE. The test requires that it be long and sustained, Ferguson doesn't qualify.
Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE
Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
TRUE (Nothing "major")
Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE.  Cuba & Iran
Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE
Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
Toss up: I guess charismatic, but definitely not a national hero.

So 7 true and 5 false with one tossup that I really think leans true.

[SteveRogers]

Isn't the charisma one so subjective as to render it useless?

[7,052,770]

Isn't the charisma one so subjective as to render it useless?

The whole test is, so that no matter what happens, the test is always right.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Isn't the charisma one so subjective as to render it useless?

The whole test is, so that no matter what happens, the test is always right.

How is  the number of seats in the House subjective?

[Gustaf]

God, not this nonsense again.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Here's what Lichtman himself said back when this thread started, with an update:

1. False, of coruse
2. Sanders needs 1590 and he has 1409, so False.
3. Neither Trump nor Clinton is the current president, False.
4. True
5. True, There isn't a recession right now, and I don't think one will start this summer.
6. True
7. False, Obama hasn't done anything as drastic as he did in his first term
8. True, There hasn't been major social unrest
9. True, Obama's clean
10. True, no big failures
11. False, Cuba is irrelevant and Iran is unpopular.
12. False, Clinton is not charismatic nor did she even serve in the military.
13. True, Trump may be charismatic, but he's no Reagan or Kennedy

That's 7 True, 6 False. Unless Obama does some God-tier foreign policy change Trump is the next president.

[Nym90]

My understanding of key 2 is that the losing candidate has to receive at least 1/3 of the delegate votes at the convention itself (as opposed to just winning at least 1/3 of the pledged delegates in the primaries). If Sanders drops out after June 7, therefore, this key could still be turned for the Dems and give them the required 8 keys to win, if many of his delegates end up actually voting for Clinton at the convention.

Or maybe we need an additional scale for someone as unpopular as Trump....he counts as double false for key 13.

[muon2]

Lichtman was on Smerconish this morning following his interview with the Fix last week. He claims that there are 4 against the Dems with two keys unable to call. Here was his assessment:

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election. FALSE
Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. NO CALL; It depends on whether Bernie takes his battle to the convention.
Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president. FALSE
Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy. TRUE
Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. TRUE
Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE
Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE
Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term. TRUE
Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE
Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term. TRUE
Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term. NO CALL. Though Iran could qualify the majority of Americans do not consider it a success. As a Dem he urged Obama to hit the trail, but tout his foreign policy, not attack Trump.
Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero. FALSE
Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero. TRUE. He thinks negatives are not an indication of charisma, but the radio team thought about how they would listen every time he went on TV. They leaned true.

[Mallow]

Yeah, not understanding why some are subjectively calling 13 "false" when Trump has pretty much the worst unfavorable ratings of any candidate. Being "charismatic" to a plurality of primary-going Republicans does not change that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Lichtman Test is one of the worst things about election season... but it's the type of thing Atlas-types would love. I'm just going to stay out of this thread for the year.

[pbrower2a]

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. Webb isn't going to do that and it's probably too late for Trump to go indy, so FALSE.

Shouldn't that be listed as true, then?

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.

If you say so. Most people don't care about either of those things or even have a negative view of them.

The real problem on Key #4 is whether the Third Party nominee draws significant support from the incumbent's Party. So if some conservative independent runs and gets a significant support largely from Republicans, then the test would say FALSE when the effect is basically TRUE.

Third-Party nominees hurt

Democrats in 1948
Democrats in 1968
Democrats in 1980
Republicans in 1992
Republicans in 1996 (but the test would have shown Clinton being hurt).

[Ebsy]

Also: Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Really? Seems like we've had multiple major policy changes this term.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Since both keys will go false, say hello to President Trump. Ugh.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Since both keys will go false, say hello to President Trump. Ugh.

Bernie needs to get lost.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also: Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Really? Seems like we've had multiple major policy changes this term.

It's second term only, and executive orders don't count. Iran Deal and TPP fall under foreign policy. I know it was notable given the usual function of congress that there was an actual, complete budget passed (eventually) for fiscal 2016, but in the typical administration that's just a normal, everyday sort of thing, so it doesn't count.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if the Iran deal is unpopular (which is debatable) the Cuban thaw and the Paris climate accords are big successes that are pretty popular with the public (especially the former).

And of course key 13 is false. It's one thing to be a charismatic politician like Reagan or Obama and another to be a good-for-TV-ratings clown like TRUMP.