So the Lichtman Test so far

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtmann defined "serious contest" as the nominee winning less than 2/3 of the delegates. So serious contest means Sanders getting 1590 delegates (including supers). He's at 1409 right now. Due to proportional allocation, he is basically assured of getting there as long as he doesn't drop out. So FALSE.

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. Webb and Bloomberg are out, TRUMP is the R nominee. It's still possible butthurt Sanders supporters will vote for Stein en masse or a lot of establishment R's will vote for the libertarian nominee, or something, but until we have reason to believe this will actually happen, we have to assume TRUE.

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. UNKNOWN

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
AMBIGUOUS. The whole police brutality/BLM movement might qualify.

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Even if Hillary is indicted, she isn't part of the administration anymore, so it doesn't count here.

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
Barring any major development, TRUE

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.

Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE. Not true for Hillary, and actually even if Sanders manages to pull it off he wouldn't qualify either.

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
FALSE. TRUMP is extremely charismatic.

6 FALSE
5 TRUE
1 Unknown
1 Ambiguous

Six "False" is required for the incumbent party to lose. So it looks like President TRUMP.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Also: Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Really? Seems like we've had multiple major policy changes this term.

It's second term only, and executive orders don't count. Iran Deal and TPP fall under foreign policy. I know it was notable given the usual function of congress that there was an actual, complete budget passed (eventually) for fiscal 2016, but in the typical administration that's just a normal, everyday sort of thing, so it doesn't count.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update. Things getting pretty dire for Dems.

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtmann defined "serious contest" as the nominee winning less than 2/3 of the delegates. So serious contest means Sanders getting 1590 delegates (including supers). Even without his supers, he's over 1800. He's also awakened a sector of the Dem Party that hates Hillary and is willing to even boo their own standardbearer to show it. The public definitely perceives him as a serious challenger.
FALSE

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. While Stein won't get anywhere close to that, it looks like Johnson could make it. We have to wait for a possible fade, so UNKNOWN for the moment.

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. UNKNOWN

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
AMBIGUOUS. The whole police brutality/BLM movement might qualify. Depends on whether people see Trump as the solution to this or not.

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE.

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
Barring any major development, TRUE

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
Likely TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify, as long as people see them as an accomplishment.

Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE.

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
You can make the argument that you can't be charismatic when you're unpopular, but you can't deny that Trump is a great orator. He also draws much bigger crowds than Hillary and his "base supporters" are more excited about voting for him than Hillary's "base supporters". Litchman will probably sway this one whichever way keeps his model intact. But I still feel like it should be put at FALSE.

6 FALSE
4 TRUE
2 Unknown
1 Ambiguous

Six "False" is required for the incumbent party to lose. Even if we flip the last key to True, that doesn't give Hillary much leeway - a strong Johnson performance, a last-minute recession, BLM protests turning people to Trump, or people not seeing Obama foreign policy as a success would turn the election to Trump.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Stop.

I'm just inputting the data. If all the keys were at "Hillary", I'd say that.