The Democrats don't have the Foreign Policy Success Key. The opening to Cuba and the Iran deal just don't measure up to what has won the key in the past. The former MIGHT count if the Cold War were still going on, but it isn't. The latter doesn't win the key because it is viewed through partisan lenses, and we've yet to see whether it will work or not.
I think all the chaos ISIS has been able to cause certainly comes close to toppling the Foreign Policy FAILURE key.
The most recent approval polls on Obama's foreign policy are upside down(
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval_foreign_policy-2821.html). Given the role public perception plays in the Keys, I think you could make a pretty good case for turning both foreign policy keys against him.
