So the Lichtman Test so far

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Lichtman test is overrated.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Lichtman test is overrated.

It's worked on all but one election in the past 100 years.

Well, sure it does great when you know what result you're aiming for when you retroactively decide the subjective ones.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Lichtman test is overrated.

It's worked on all but one election in the past 100 years.

Well, sure it does great when you know what result you're aiming for when you retroactively decide the subjective ones.

It was created in the 80's and has been used to predict every election from 1984 to the present. Again, all but one time it was correct. Then it was retroactively applied to elections going all the way back to 1860 and it still worked.

Um, nope. Nope nope nope. Lichtman looked at every election from 1860 to 1980 and identified common factors in order to create the model. The model cannot predict the data points that were used to derive the model in the first place. When you plug in an election from 1860 to 1980, the model spits out the right answer because it was designed (overfitted) in the first place specifically to account for each and every one of those elections.

As for whether or not the model got 2000 right, doesn't that just kind of go to show the inherent uselessness of a model for U.S. presidential elections that doesn't even purport to tell you what percentage of the popular vote a candidate will win by?

The only reason it got 2000 wrong was because 2000 was stolen by Bush.

Lichtman says it predicts the popular vote winner. Hilariously the Republicans had only 4 of the 8 keys they need to win in 1876, but since Tilden won the popular vote, Litchtman counts that as an election predicted correctly. You'd think if you were 4 keys short you wouldn't actually end up in the White House.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1856

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE, huge loss of seats

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
FALSE, the incumbent President got primaried after 17 ballots

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
FALSE, Filmore got 21%

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.
TRUE

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms.
UNDECIDED, there was a 1853-1854 recession

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term.
UNDECIDED, should the  Kansas-Nebraska Act count?

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
FALSE, Bleeding Kansas

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE, I guess

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
FALSE, Attempt to buy Cuba failed


Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
UNDECIDED, does Gadsden Purchase count?


Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE, I don't think his military service counts

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
UNDECIDED.  Fremont is considered by some to be a military hero


7 false, 2 true, 4 unknown for 1856 . I think we know why the Litchman test starts with 1860.