So the Lichtman Test so far

[windjammer]

BRTD

Key 4 is "True", not false.

So basically with your model, there are:
6 True
3 Lean True
4 False

And Nym is correct, 8 keys are needed.

[windjammer]

Here's Lichtman's own analysis from last month.

1. MAN: false (Pubs hold more seats than after the 2010 midterms)
2. CON: undecided (becomes true if Clinton wraps up the race early)
3. INC: false (Obama isn't running)
4. 3RD: undecided (no forecast until next year)
5. STE: true (the economy is not headed for recession in 2016)
6. LTE: true (real per capita growth in 2013-2016 exceeds the average of the two previous terms)
7. POL: false (Obama has no policy change like Obamacare this term)
8. UNR: true (there is no sustained social unrest)
9. SCA: true (there is no scandal that touches the presidency)
10. FMF: true (Obama has avoided any notable foreign or military failure)
11. FMS: undecided (Obama has no major foreign success to date)
12. ICH: false (Clinton is not charismatic nor a military hero)
13. CCH: true (none of the Pubs are charismatic or a military heroes)

That makes 4 false and 3 undecided. Unless two more keys go false the Dems should win.

He says nothing about the Iran Deal?

[windjammer]

Torie, this model is quite reliable:
Lichtman predicted the victory of Bush in 88 when everyone was believing he was going to lose, and he predicted the victory of Clinton when everyone was thinking Bush was going to win.
And these predictions were made much before the election.

[windjammer]

Key 1: The incumbent party (in this case, Democrats) holds more seats in the U. S. House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election.
FALSE

Key 2: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
Lichtmann defined "serious contest" as the nominee winning less than 2/3 of the delegates. So serious contest means Sanders getting 1590 delegates (including supers). He's at 1409 right now. Due to proportional allocation, he is basically assured of getting there as long as he doesn't drop out. So FALSE.

Key 3: The incumbent-party candidate is the current president.
FALSE

Key 4: There is no significant third-party or independent candidacy.
Licthmann defines "significant" as earning 5%. Webb and Bloomberg are out, TRUMP is the R nominee. It's still possible butthurt Sanders supporters will vote for Stein en masse or a lot of establishment R's will vote for the libertarian nominee, or something, but until we have reason to believe this will actually happen, we have to assume TRUE.

Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the campaign. UNKNOWN

Key 6: Real (constant-dollar) per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth for the preceding two terms. TRUE

Key 7: The incumbent administration has effected major policy changes during the term. FALSE

Key 8: There has been no major social unrest during the term.
AMBIGUOUS. The whole police brutality/BLM movement might qualify.

Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
TRUE. Even if Hillary is indicted, she isn't part of the administration anymore, so it doesn't count here.

Key 10: There has been no major military or foreign policy failure during the term.
Barring any major development, TRUE

Key 11: There has been a major military or foreign policy success during the term.
TRUE. The opening of Cuba relations and Iran deal would definitely qualify.

Key 12: The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or is a national hero.
FALSE. Not true for Hillary, and actually even if Sanders manages to pull it off he wouldn't qualify either.

Key 13: The challenger is not charismatic and is not a national hero.
FALSE. TRUMP is extremely charismatic.

6 FALSE
5 TRUE
1 Unknown
1 Ambiguous

Six "False" is required for the incumbent party to lose. So it looks like President TRUMP.

Wulfric,
Trump may be a great orator but he would not get the last key anyone. You have to be a war hero or much more charismatic than he currently is to get this key. Look at how he's unpopular.