Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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  Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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Poll
Question: Will some candidates drop out of the race in order to stop O'Leary from winning?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 18

Author Topic: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017  (Read 101579 times)
Joe Republic
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« Reply #25 on: November 06, 2015, 03:00:19 AM »

Why do Canadian parties hold their leadership elections six decades (give or take) after the position becomes vacant?
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #26 on: November 06, 2015, 03:45:50 PM »

As Andrew Coyne pointed out yesterday, in this case it makes sense for the Conservatives to wait and see how and in what way the electoral system is changed.  Who they want as leader could be different with a first past the post system or with a IRV system or with a MMP system.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #27 on: November 06, 2015, 06:31:18 PM »

How do you guys think the Conservatives are interpreting this loss? Do they think it was just because Harper was in charge for almost a decade and he was thrown out because of a desire for change. Or was it because he led the party too far to the right?
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Njall
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« Reply #28 on: November 06, 2015, 06:52:34 PM »

How do you guys think the Conservatives are interpreting this loss? Do they think it was just because Harper was in charge for almost a decade and he was thrown out because of a desire for change. Or was it because he led the party too far to the right?

From what I've seen, it's much more the former than the latter so far.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #29 on: November 06, 2015, 06:55:14 PM »

How do you guys think the Conservatives are interpreting this loss? Do they think it was just because Harper was in charge for almost a decade and he was thrown out because of a desire for change. Or was it because he led the party too far to the right?

From what I've seen, it's much more the former than the latter so far.

Agreed. Most of the people I've talked to think the party needs a change in tone, and a somewhat expanded platform, but that the fundamentals of the party are sound.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #30 on: November 06, 2015, 07:29:47 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2015, 07:31:19 PM by andrew_c »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.
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2952-0-0
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« Reply #31 on: November 06, 2015, 11:52:39 PM »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

If Harper just stuck to his "Justin's not ready and will increase your taxes to a gazillion" line, he would not have lost the immigrant vote so dramatically. After the Conservative Party revealed their true nature, it will be very difficult to win back these votes even if they campaign better next time. Trust betrayed is almost impossible to restore.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2015, 06:42:21 AM »

It was interesting to see Tony Clement who had been a hard right wing member of the Mike Harris government say that the Conservatives need to move beyond economic issues and address issues of poverty and aboriginal problems.

Other than, I think, unfairly throwing Bernard Valcourt under the bus who I believe genuinely tried to address aboriginal problems (although maybe Clement was saying that he wasn't backed up by Harper or the cabinet or the boys in the PMO), I think Clement will have truly had an epiphany once he realizes that poverty and aboriginal concerns are economic issues.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2015, 03:40:32 PM »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

The Tories did well among Chinese voters (winning Markham-Unionville which is more Chinese under the new riding configuration, increasing their vote share in Agincourt and holding on in Richmond while getting slaughtered in the GVRD).  Among South Asians however there was a big swing to the Liberals.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2015, 04:29:26 PM »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

The Tories did well among Chinese voters (winning Markham-Unionville which is more Chinese under the new riding configuration, increasing their vote share in Agincourt and holding on in Richmond while getting slaughtered in the GVRD).  Among South Asians however there was a big swing to the Liberals.

The Conservatives held Richmond Centre but that riding had the lowest voter turnout in British Columbia.  My early guess is that it was mainly the Chinese who didn't turn out to vote as they were turned off by the Conservative campaign demonizing some immigrant groups but couldn't vote for any other party. 

The Liberals won the other Richmond riding, Steveston-Richmond East.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2015, 08:44:39 PM »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

The Tories did well among Chinese voters (winning Markham-Unionville which is more Chinese under the new riding configuration, increasing their vote share in Agincourt and holding on in Richmond while getting slaughtered in the GVRD).  Among South Asians however there was a big swing to the Liberals.

The Conservatives held Richmond Centre but that riding had the lowest voter turnout in British Columbia.  My early guess is that it was mainly the Chinese who didn't turn out to vote as they were turned off by the Conservative campaign demonizing some immigrant groups but couldn't vote for any other party. 

The Liberals won the other Richmond riding, Steveston-Richmond East.

The two Richmond ridings had very shoddy turnout in 2011 as well.

As Kensington already noted Tory vote share increased or held up very well in heavily Chinese ridings. Tory declines in BC were much worse whiter, less Chinese ridings. Occam's razor would suggest that the Tories did reasonably well among the Chinese.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2015, 01:43:58 PM »

In Markham-Unionville, the Conservatives received 6500 more votes than last time.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2015, 03:58:54 PM »

In Markham-Unionville, the Conservatives received 6500 more votes than last time.

Didn't John McCallum run in Markham-Unionville in 2011?
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andrew_c
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2015, 04:54:59 PM »

The riding boundaries were different last time. Most of that riding went to Markham-Thornhill.
The current Markham-Unionville was mostly part of Oak Ridges-Markham and not the old Markham-Unionville.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #39 on: November 08, 2015, 05:05:20 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2015, 05:12:53 PM by King of Kensington »

I'm comparing transposed results.  In fact, the Tories would have won the current Markham-Unionville in 2011 as well (both the "Oak Ridges" part and the part McCallum represented).  It's hard to find too many ridings in Ontario where the Conservative vote share went up and where the raw vote increased by as much as it did in that riding.

I hate Harper too, but let's not let narratives we like contradict the facts.  I'm just not buying this hypothesis that Chinese voters didn't turn out because they found Harper intolerant or anti-immigrant.  
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #40 on: November 08, 2015, 06:15:48 PM »

I'm comparing transposed results.  In fact, the Tories would have won the current Markham-Unionville in 2011 as well (both the "Oak Ridges" part and the part McCallum represented).  It's hard to find too many ridings in Ontario where the Conservative vote share went up and where the raw vote increased by as much as it did in that riding.

I hate Harper too, but let's not let narratives we like contradict the facts.  I'm just not buying this hypothesis that Chinese voters didn't turn out because they found Harper intolerant or anti-immigrant.  

Precisely. Even when a party has a bad election, there will probably be a group that will trend towards it. The Tories did way better with Jewish and Chinese voters than say 2006. The NDP vote held up pretty well in East Montreal (I don't know which groups that suggests they did well with). Such is life in our changing country.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #41 on: November 08, 2015, 06:22:34 PM »

I wish I had thought this through more in the campaign because it's so obvious in hindsight: It always bugged me when people talked about the Tories hurting themselves with "the immigrant vote" as if immigrants were all from one ethnic group or something. I kept thinking "why would a Chinese guy in Richmond care about the niqab?".

I mean I can totally see why a Brampton Sikh would relate those attacks to his personal situation, but not members of other groups. Now that the election results are in, it's clear; Harper bombed with Indo-Canadians and did well among Sino-Canadians.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #42 on: November 08, 2015, 06:38:04 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2015, 06:53:14 PM by King of Kensington »

Well that Insights West poll which said only 14% of BC "Asians" would vote Conservative turned out to be total garbage!  

In terms of Indo Canadians, yes, it's 2006 again for the Tories.  

(Is newly elected Bob Saroya - who beat a Chinese Liberal in Markham-Unionville - now the only Indo Canadian Tory in Parliament?)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #43 on: November 08, 2015, 07:16:43 PM »

(Is newly elected Bob Saroya - who beat a Chinese Liberal in Markham-Unionville - now the only Indo Canadian Tory in Parliament?)

Deepak Obhrai is still in parliament. Well technically he was born in Tanzania, but still.
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adma
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« Reply #44 on: November 08, 2015, 07:39:56 PM »

Another interesting thing about Saroya is that he was McCallum's underdog opponent in 2011--thus, now every single Conservative who ran in the 905 belt in 2011 has had his/her turn in Parliament.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2015, 08:31:29 PM »

Ambrose predicted on QP that Kenney, Raitt, Leitch, Clement and MacKay will run.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2015, 10:10:19 PM »

Leitch, MacKay and Raitt will headline a NSPC fundraiser tomorrow. Leitch sounds in, and MacKay sounds like he's leaning in: "No one is expecting he will launch his leadership bid Monday night, but he may use the venue to promote his vision for the region and the country."
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2015, 10:44:13 PM »

I hate Kellie Leitch. She came to our Model Parliament and was the only guest who talked at us for an hour. The others took questions, were casual, and seemed honest. All she had to offer was empty, transparent rhetoric.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2015, 11:08:02 PM »

Second-tier candidate, like Clement. 
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« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2015, 11:26:34 PM »

The Tories need to move back to their Progressive Conservative roots and win back the immigrant vote if they want to win another majority.

The Tories did well among Chinese voters (winning Markham-Unionville which is more Chinese under the new riding configuration, increasing their vote share in Agincourt and holding on in Richmond while getting slaughtered in the GVRD).  Among South Asians however there was a big swing to the Liberals.

The Conservatives held Richmond Centre but that riding had the lowest voter turnout in British Columbia.  My early guess is that it was mainly the Chinese who didn't turn out to vote as they were turned off by the Conservative campaign demonizing some immigrant groups but couldn't vote for any other party. 

The Liberals won the other Richmond riding, Steveston-Richmond East.

The Liberal candidate in Richmond Centre refused to door-knock.

Serves him right
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