Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[136or142]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

Kellie Leitch supposedly has a great campaign organization.  Then there was a story on how Andrew Scheer, if he runs, will have a great organization and will unite the party behind him because he's young and, while being a veteran M.P, won't have the baggage of the Harper years.  Now there is a story on Erin O'Toole saying pretty much the same thing (O'Toole isn't a veteran M.P but was briefly a Cabinet Minister.)

It seems nearly every Conservative running is a front-runner with a great campaign organization.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch has Kouvalis, FWIW.

[RogueBeaver]

Clown car keeps growing.

[DC Al Fine]

Clown car keeps growing.

Wonder how many dropouts we'll have before voting time. The Liberals had four in '06.

[136or142]

Clown car keeps growing.

I think this is further evidence that the Conservatives don't believe Peter MacKay is going to run.  I could also see these M.Ps (and shadow cabinet ministers) looking at running if MacKay doesn't based on their relatively high profiles: James Bezan, Pierre Polievre and Peter Van Loan.

Some might add Michelle Rempel, but given her recent revelation that she is suffering from PTSD stemming from the Ottawa shooting incident I think it would be a bit odd for her to turn around and run for leader.  Also, Rempel is said to be pushing Lisa Raitt to run.

If MacKay doesn't run, it would mean the entire top tier of Conservative successors to Harper decided to take a pass:
1.James Moore
2.Jason Kenney
3.Brad Wall
4.John Baird
5.Jean Charest
6.Bernard Lord
7.Peter MacKay

[136or142]

The Globe and Mail article also mentioned Adrienne Snow as planning to run.
This is an article on her: http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/outside-candidate-adrienne-snow-launches-bid-for-tory-leadership/

She seems like a rather nasty piece of work.

I think this is everybody:
Running or Planning to run:
1.Deepak Obhrai
2.Bradley Trost
3.Kellie Leitch
4.Michael Chong
5.Tony Clement
6.Maxime Bernier
7.Pierre Lemieux
8.Adrienne Snow

Considering running:
1.Andrew Scheer
2.Lisa Raitt
3.Erin O'Toole
4.Steven Blaney
5.Peter MacKay
6.Andrew Saxton
7.Rick Peterson
8.Dan Lindsay
9.Kevin O'Leary

[DC Al Fine]

I'd quibble with the size of that 'top-tier' list. If your last experience in politics was losing an election > 5 years ago, I wouldn't call you top tier. Charest and Lord don't belong there.

[136or142]

I'd quibble with the size of that 'top-tier' list. If your last experience in politics was losing an election > 5 years ago, I wouldn't call you top tier. Charest and Lord don't belong there.

They were promoted early on and regarded as being major candidates had they run.  I agree that neither of them made any sense as Conservative Party leadership candidates.

I suspect Charest would have sunk pretty quickly had he got in, but the media at least would have initially treated him as a serious contender.  Lord was promoted as the most senior Conservative who could have run from the Atlantic Provinces after MacKay.

I was also surprised when he was mentioned as a possible candidate.

[DL]

I think this is further evidence that the Conservatives don't believe Peter MacKay is going to run.  I could also see these M.Ps (and shadow cabinet ministers) looking at running if MacKay doesn't based on their relatively high profiles: James Bezan, Pierre Polievre and Peter Van Loan.

I'm not so sure about that. For the moment no one knows if McKay will run or not and so it doesnt do anyone any harm to muse about running and getting a bit of publicity so that if McKay does NOT run - they already have a teeny bit of name recognition. Keep in mind that you need to pay $100,000 to enter the race, so I have a feeling that many of the people talking about running right now are either floating trial balloons or are stalking horses for someone else or just want a bit of free publicity.

I say show me the money! Until someone is seriously ready to pony up $100k - I don't take them seriously

[DC Al Fine]

I think this is further evidence that the Conservatives don't believe Peter MacKay is going to run.  I could also see these M.Ps (and shadow cabinet ministers) looking at running if MacKay doesn't based on their relatively high profiles: James Bezan, Pierre Polievre and Peter Van Loan.

I'm not so sure about that. For the moment no one knows if McKay will run or not and so it doesnt do anyone any harm to muse about running and getting a bit of publicity so that if McKay does NOT run - they already have a teeny bit of name recognition. Keep in mind that you need to pay $100,000 to enter the race, so I have a feeling that many of the people talking about running right now are either floating trial balloons or are stalking horses for someone else or just want a bit of free publicity.

I say show me the money! Until someone is seriously ready to pony up $100k - I don't take them seriously

Good point DL. I hadn't thought about that. If we narrow the field to candidates who actually have put up the money only Bernier, Chong, Clement and Leitch are in.

Who else will put up? I figure at least one socon (probably Trost, maybe Scheer if I'm lucky ), another red Tory (MacKay or Raitt?), and maybe 1-2 random fillers (think Martin Singh).

[136or142]

I think this is further evidence that the Conservatives don't believe Peter MacKay is going to run.  I could also see these M.Ps (and shadow cabinet ministers) looking at running if MacKay doesn't based on their relatively high profiles: James Bezan, Pierre Polievre and Peter Van Loan.

I'm not so sure about that. For the moment no one knows if McKay will run or not and so it doesnt do anyone any harm to muse about running and getting a bit of publicity so that if McKay does NOT run - they already have a teeny bit of name recognition. Keep in mind that you need to pay $100,000 to enter the race, so I have a feeling that many of the people talking about running right now are either floating trial balloons or are stalking horses for someone else or just want a bit of free publicity.

I say show me the money! Until someone is seriously ready to pony up $100k - I don't take them seriously

Good point DL. I hadn't thought about that. If we narrow the field to candidates who actually have put up the money only Bernier, Chong, Clement and Leitch are in.

Who else will put up? I figure at least one socon (probably Trost, maybe Scheer if I'm lucky ), another red Tory (MacKay or Raitt?), and maybe 1-2 random fillers (think Martin Singh).

Yes, that is a good point.  I see that is the difference between those who are actually running and those who have announced their intention to run.

Also:
1.Peter MacKay is NOT a red Tory.  Just because he chose, clearly as a flag of convenience, to run for the Progressive Conservatives does not make him a red Tory.  He never held an economic portfolio, so I don't know what his fiscal policies would be, but he was as ardent a social conservative as Kellie Leitch if not Brad Trost.

2.Why have Martin Singh when you can have Ryan Cleary, clearly?

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Why have Martin Singh when you can have Ryan Cleary, clearly?

I think his point was that someone a la Martin Singh who noone has ever heard of could pony up the cash for a run.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch should get outta the race now.

[136or142]

2.Why have Martin Singh when you can have Ryan Cleary, clearly?

I think his point was that someone a la Martin Singh who noone has ever heard of could pony up the cash for a run.

Oh, I see.  I thought he was saying that Martin Singh was now backing the Conservative Party.  Still, as lame as my response was, I thought people here would cleary clearly see it was a joke.  Not a funny joke, but still a joke.

[136or142]

Leitch should get outta the race now.

She's giving the same response as she gave to Rosie Barton when she first got into the race.  I like it that some Conservatives (and conservatives) think she would make a better Prime Minister than Justin Trudeau because she's a medical doctor (or a specialist) while Trudeau was nothing but a 'part time drama teacher' or nothing but a 'ski instructor,'  even though Trudeau rarely ever says anything this incoherent while Leitch rarely ever says anything that isn't incoherent.

[King of Kensington]

Kellie Leitch is the Ben Carson of Canadian politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I know a conservative who insists on calling her "Dr. Kellie Leitch".  The comparison to Ben Carson is very apt. Maybe we should start calling her "the good doctor"?

[DC Al Fine]

Leitch should get outta the race now.

Coming from a religious community that's a bit out of the Canadian mainstream, this scares the crap out of me. I think Leitch will be hugging the bottom of my preferences with Bernier.

[DC Al Fine]

So what are people thinking for their ballots, (or hypothetical ballots for non-Tories)? Mine will probably look like:

SoCon protest vote/Serious vote for Scheer if possible
Chong
Clement
Random filler
Bernier
Leitch

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure who I should support strategically as a New Democrat, but personally I think Chong is really the only palatable candidate.

[136or142]

Leitch should get outta the race now.

Coming from a religious community that's a bit out of the Canadian mainstream, this scares the crap out of me. I think Leitch will be hugging the bottom of my preferences with Bernier.

I wish Bernier would join the Liberal Party, be appointed Minister of Industry (or whatever it has been renamed) and implement all his pro free enterprise policies.

[136or142]

So what are people thinking for their ballots, (or hypothetical ballots for non-Tories)? Mine will probably look like:

SoCon protest vote/Serious vote for Scheer if possible
Chong
Clement
Random filler
Bernier
Leitch

What if Lisa Raitt runs?  She seems to be pretty moderate and a genuinely nice person as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Adam: I thought that was Brison's job.

[DC Al Fine]

So what are people thinking for their ballots, (or hypothetical ballots for non-Tories)? Mine will probably look like:

SoCon protest vote/Serious vote for Scheer if possible
Chong
Clement
Random filler
Bernier
Leitch

What if Lisa Raitt runs?  She seems to be pretty moderate and a genuinely nice person as well.

She'd be lower than Chong, higher than Bernier and Leitch.

[136or142]

Adam: I thought that was Brison's job.

That would be nice, but he's the Treasury Board President.   Navdeep Bains is the Minister for the renamed Industry portfolio.