Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Poirot]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

[DC Al Fine]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

[Wisconsin+17]

Interesting, DC AL FINE.

I went with Trost, Lemieux, O'Toole, Scheer.

[RogueBeaver]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

Where would we shrink the Liberal majority? We might get some Atlantic seats back but Grits could gain a chunk here in QC, maybe lose a couple in BC. I'd put O/U at 190 right now.

[DL]

I Bernier is the next CPC leader, the party can say goodbye to ever winning seats in Atlantic Canada again...his pledge to eliminate the equalization program would instantly bankrupt all four Atlantic provinces and would be a 3rd, 4th and 5th rail!!!

[DC Al Fine]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

Where would we shrink the Liberal majority? We might get some Atlantic seats back but Grits could gain a chunk here in QC, maybe lose a couple in BC. I'd put O/U at 190 right now.

Well there's a decent number of suburban seats (mostly in Toronto, but also dribs and drabs in the rest of the country), but you're right, I forgot about the Liberals likely landslide in Quebec. I think the point still stands though. The NDP and Bloc's electoral situation seems worse than ours given our lack of promiscuous progressive, and their sizeable number of seats won by <10%. If the results are something like:

Lib (+5)
Tory: (+15)
NDP/Bloc: (-20)

That would be enough of a success for the leader to stick around and build upon no?

[VPH]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

Where would we shrink the Liberal majority? We might get some Atlantic seats back but Grits could gain a chunk here in QC, maybe lose a couple in BC. I'd put O/U at 190 right now.

Well there's a decent number of suburban seats (mostly in Toronto, but also dribs and drabs in the rest of the country), but you're right, I forgot about the Liberals likely landslide in Quebec. I think the point still stands though. The NDP and Bloc's electoral situation seems worse than ours given our lack of promiscuous progressive, and their sizeable number of seats won by <10%. If the results are something like:

Lib (+5)
Tory: (+15)
NDP/Bloc: (-20)

That would be enough of a success for the leader to stick around and build upon no?

NDP might suffer losses like that if Ashton wins.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is the Conservative party going to keep its leader if the result of the next election is again a Liberal majority government ? I'm wondering if the next leader is there at least for the medium term or needs a good result in two years.

Probably depends on what kind of majority government we see. If the new leader makes some progress and shrinks the Liberal majority, I imagine they'll stick around.

Where would we shrink the Liberal majority? We might get some Atlantic seats back but Grits could gain a chunk here in QC, maybe lose a couple in BC. I'd put O/U at 190 right now.

Well there's a decent number of suburban seats (mostly in Toronto, but also dribs and drabs in the rest of the country), but you're right, I forgot about the Liberals likely landslide in Quebec. I think the point still stands though. The NDP and Bloc's electoral situation seems worse than ours given our lack of promiscuous progressive, and their sizeable number of seats won by <10%. If the results are something like:

Lib (+5)
Tory: (+15)
NDP/Bloc: (-20)

That would be enough of a success for the leader to stick around and build upon no?

IMHO, the Tories are a party of government and any election they fail to win must be viewed as a failure, and the party leader must shoulder responsibility for the defeat. Even though that'd be a decent result for the Tories, the Liberals gaining seats would also be seen as a missed opportunity.

As much as a Dion fanboy I am, I still wanted him gone after 2008.

[Poirot]

I was asking about keeping leader after next election if there is an advantage in choosing a younger leader for the medium term and get more time to be well known and if there is a chance bigger names who chose not to run this time could push out a defeated leader.

Nanos asked Canadians which candidate has the best chance to defeat Trudeau.
Bernier leads with 19.6%
Chong is second with 7.4%
Raitt third with 3.8%
Scheer 3.3%, O'Toole 3%

Unsure was the most common answer with 37.1% followed by None can defeat Trudeau 20.2%

https://twitter.com/niknanos/status/862065565556518912/photo/1

[DL]

I really hate polling questions that ask people what they think other people think. The question should be "which CPC leadership candidate would YOU be most likely to vote for ?" Who cares who people think other people would vote for?

[Hatman 🍁]

Our numbers show a large lead for Bernier:



Of course, I think it won't be such a blowout when it comes to actual members. The party establishment isn't exactly behind Bernier (look at the endorsements). For example, O'Toole has the most caucus endorsements, but his name recognition among Canadians is non existent.

[RogueBeaver]

Oh great, Bernier wants the carnival barker to play a role if he wins & possibly run for a seat.

[DC Al Fine]

I logged into Facebook and noticed an ad, which was just a link to a 2008 Toronto story about Harper firing Maxime Bernier from cabinet. Wonder which Tory candidate paid for that.

[Poirot]

I Bernier is the next CPC leader, the party can say goodbye to ever winning seats in Atlantic Canada again...his pledge to eliminate the equalization program would instantly bankrupt all four Atlantic provinces and would be a 3rd, 4th and 5th rail!!!

I don't think he wants to totally eliminate equalization. He finds it unfair, call it a poverty trap. He would study the formula. Seems like code word for reduce the amount given out.

I think he wants to eliminate the regional economic agency, probably it is part of eliminate corporate subsidy.

Don't know if the party will automatically accept all policies of the new leader or resist some.

[136or142]

If anybody cares, I think Bernier is right on about 80% of his economic ideas, and he would be a 'breath of fresh air' in terms of opening up debates, but he's simply too much of an ideologue to be Prime Minister.

[Poirot]

Bernier wants to offer a clear contrast to Trudeau. I feel the contrast is too big and will make attacks easier. Maybe libertarianism is popular among younger generation and the middle class will welcome tax cuts and people will not mind a smaller role for the federal government. Not sure Harper would have been more popular doing less with government. If Harper was described as an ideologue, Bernier is Harper on streroids!

[Poirot]

A long profile on Bernier in L'actualité magazine.
http://lactualite.com/politique/2017/05/11/peut-il-battre-trudeau/

There are a few stories that show his ideology and why some say he is not a team player.

After he promised to end the "socialist cartel" in agriculture he sent an email to other MPs saying they are hypocrits if they persist to defend supply management at the same time as free competition.

In 2010 he refused to wear a Nordiques jersey for a photo op at a caucus meeting with the other Quebec MPs because he was against a possible federal contribution to built a new arena.

In 2012 the NDP proposed a law to add bilingualism at hiring in the criteria for parliamentary officers. The minister for official languages said it was not necessary. Bernier declared to journalists it was a very good proposal and will support it. In Cabinet Bernier told Harper if he had not nominated a uniligual auditor general, Bernier would not had to make the statement. There was silence around the table. At the end the government supported the law.

Opponents say Bernier is rigid ideologically and a party leader needs adaptablity. bernier thinks his success is coherence with his principles.

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Many Conservatives feel they have spend a decade in power making compromises with Harper. What is his legacy? The state is as big as it was.

Bernier's adviser is a man who created a libertarian webzine 20 years ago nad they have met working at the right wing think tank Montreal economic institute. (I know someone who knew him so useful playing six degrees of separation)

Bernier is inspired by economists Bastiat, Hayek and von Mises for a minimalist state and more individual freedom. His political model: Thatcher and Ron Paul.

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He is not going to be a Trudeau light or Harper light. The dictinction will be real clear to voters.

On deficits Bernier is even against the Haper government. If there is a recession he will not have a deficit like harper did. In 2018 there was a big battle in caucus between the purists like Bernier who don't want deficits and the pragmatists who wanted to stimulate the economy and save the minority government. Bernier rallied the decision because there was a plan to quickly return to balance budget. If he is PM, there will be no deficits even in time of recession.

An economist says a promise like cutting $30 billion in public spending to give tax cuts could be difficult to make since half of government spending is transfer to citizens of governments.

Take power from government to give to citizens could please. Bernier says he has to be careful not to be painted a extreme right on economic issues. Canadians don't know what is a libertarian.       

[mvd10]

Refusing to run deficits even in sharp downturns is just downright madness. But otherwise he's pretty amazing. It's just a shame that he's totally unelectable.

[MAINEiac4434]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

[136or142]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

Mulcair wont' be leader in the next election though.

[136or142]

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2017/policy-making-and-the-conservative-party/

Policy making and the Conservative Party by Rachel Curran

[MAINEiac4434]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

Mulcair wont' be leader in the next election though.

Yeah, and Caron probably won't win the NDP leadership. But has that ever happened before, Quebecers leading every major party?

[Hatman 🍁]

Just realized that if Bernier wins, all parties but the Greens will be led by Quebecers: Trudeau from Papineau, Mulcair from Outremont, Bernier from Beauce and the Bloc.

Mulcair wont' be leader in the next election though.

Yeah, and Caron probably won't win the NDP leadership. But has that ever happened before, Quebecers leading every major party?

No, because Mulcair was the first NDP leader from Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: Bernier has a 85% chance of winning.

[Barnes]

The poll for this thread is really very amusing in retrospect.

This has been quite an interesting and entertaining race for many reasons, and I've enjoyed following the commentary in this thread, although I didn't contribute much myself--something I must rectify shortly.