Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Even without the long form census issue, Canadian religion stats wouldn't be very good.  For some reason StatsCan put way too many groups into the "Other Christian" category in 2011 that used to have their own categories before. Mormons, Jehovah's Witness, Mennonites, non-denominational Evangelicals, Dutch Calvinists, and vaguely spiritual, unaffiliated Christians all get put in the same category, which makes analysis more difficult.

While those religions are lumped together in riding data, you can find this information for other levels, such as census agglomeration. Unfortunately Cardston is too small. However, we can look up Lethbridge, which is about 8% Mormon. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/dp-pd/dt-td/Lp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&APATH=3&DETAIL=0&DIM=0&FL=A&FREE=0&GC=0&GID=0&GK=0&GRP=0&PID=0&PRID=0&PTYPE=105277&S=0&SHOWALL=0&SUB=0&Temporal=2013&THEME=95&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=

[King of Kensington]

There was talk about the "Ukrainian vote" in this election but obviously there was little evidence of it having an impact.  The rural heavily Ukrainian settled areas of the Prairies are now Conservative strongholds (but the NDP had some strength in the 1970s and 80s in Ukrainian areas such as Yorkton-Melville and Manitoba's Interlake district, so they're not as historically conservative as Volga German and Mennnonite areas).  But Canada's "Ukrainian" city, Winnipeg, swung big to the Liberals.  Also, Toronto Liberal MPs Chrystia Freeland and Borys Wrzesnewskyj are very "hawkish" when it comes to Ukraine, so it's unlikely voters thought there was a big difference between the Tories and the Liberals. 

[adma]

Though West Toronto tradition usually had it that "Poles go Liberal, Ukes go Tory"--I reckon that political figureheads had a lot to do with that (Yaremko for the Ukes, Haidasz for the Poles)

These days, I suppose the mayoral-race equivalent would be "Ukes go for John Tory, Poles go for the Fords"

[King of Kensington]

Also, most Ukrainian DPs went to Toronto rather than the Prairies and thus made a large share of Toronto's Ukrainian community.  They were very right-wing and many thought Pierre Trudeau was a crypto-Communist!  Although Lubor Zink was Czech his appeal was mostly in the Ukrainian community.

For whatever reason, Poles in Toronto just voted for the Liberals for as long as they were the "Catholic party."

Fast forward to today, it's hard to know how Poles and Ukrainians vote today in the GTA, and whether there's any ethnic divide in the "Boris vs. Ted" battles.  

[DL]

I'm told anecdotally that Peggy Nash did very well with Poles in Parkdale-High Park...but who knows?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm told anecdotally that Peggy Nash did very well with Poles in Parkdale-High Park...but who knows?

PiS Dippers?

[RogueBeaver]

Taber:Leitch has pissed people off by jumping the gun, calls are being made on Kenney and Raitt's behalf, Clement is considering and insiders expect MacKay to run.

[adma]

I'm told anecdotally that Peggy Nash did very well with Poles in Parkdale-High Park...but who knows?

PiS Dippers?

Or maybe Arif Virani insufficiently Euro-stock?

[King of Kensington]

I put an end to this thread drift (that I started!) by starting this new thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=223004.0

So we can keep this more about news updates.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I wonder how often the thought has gone through Harper's head that had these Paris attacks happened in late September things might have turned out differently.

I don't actually think it would've changed the outcome (people hated him that much), but he really did want a foreign policy campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

So Forum did a poll and Peter MacKay is winning the name recognition contest

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier considering a run.

[adma]

So Forum did a poll and Peter MacKay is winning the name recognition contest

Funny how Bernier *isn't* among that crowd.

[Hatman 🍁]

So Forum did a poll and Peter MacKay is winning the name recognition contest

SHOCKING

[DL]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

[Hatman 🍁]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

Having said that, MacKay likely won't win. BUT, he will likely do much better than the nay-saying pundits think he will. My money is on Jason Kenney.

[136or142]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

Having said that, MacKay likely won't win. BUT, he will likely do much better than the nay-saying pundits think he will. My money is on Jason Kenney.

I probably should be above this, but I want to point out that I mentioned months ago that Peter MacKay would start out as the front runner in any Conservative leadership campaign and would be a serious contender and my comment at that time was roundly ridiculed.

[Hatman 🍁]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

Having said that, MacKay likely won't win. BUT, he will likely do much better than the nay-saying pundits think he will. My money is on Jason Kenney.

I probably should be above this, but I want to point out that I mentioned months ago that Peter MacKay would start out as the front runner in any Conservative leadership campaign and would be a serious contender and my comment at that time was roundly ridiculed.

Not from me, I hope. Though the last time this was brought up was right when he resigned after some scandals, so not the best time to suggest he had a good chance.

I was ridiculed 4 years ago when I said Justin Trudeau was the only saviour for the Liberals, but look where we are now.

[136or142]

These sorts of polls of the general public on party leadership contests are pretty worthless and are just a measure of name recognition. Remember Forum's poll of Ontarians after McGuinty quit that said that Gerard Kennedy was far and away the leading candidate for the Ontario Liberal leadership? (he ended up a distant third). Or what about their poll way back when that showed that Christine Elliott was far and away the leader in the race to be Ontario PC leader...she was crushed by Patrick Brown - who the initial polls said was at about 1% among the general public.

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

Having said that, MacKay likely won't win. BUT, he will likely do much better than the nay-saying pundits think he will. My money is on Jason Kenney.

I probably should be above this, but I want to point out that I mentioned months ago that Peter MacKay would start out as the front runner in any Conservative leadership campaign and would be a serious contender and my comment at that time was roundly ridiculed.

Not from me, I hope. Though the last time this was brought up was right when he resigned after some scandals, so not the best time to suggest he had a good chance.

I was ridiculed 4 years ago when I said Justin Trudeau was the only saviour for the Liberals, but look where we are now.

I don't believe it was from you, no.  I don't recall any scandals that led to MacKay's resignation and not even any suspicions of allegations.  I recall that with John Baird.

[DL]

Well, obviously campaigns matter. Though name recognition means more in federal leadership races. There's a reason why Brian Topp didn't become NDP leader.

That's not the reason Topp didn't win the federal NDP leadership race. By the end of the campaign I would say that among card-carrying NDP members (ie: the only people who get to vote), Topp was as well known as anyone else. Also, while Mulcair was well known in Quebec - which in 2012 had lots of MPs and very few actual NDP members - in the rest of Canada I'm not sure how well-known Mulcair was. People knew who Topp was - they just didn't think he was "ready for primetime" to be leader of the opposition not having any frontline political experience at all.

When Jack Layton first decided to run for the federal NDP leadership in 2002 - he was almost a total unknown to NDP members compared to stalwarts like Blaikie and Nystrom. and going back to 1989 - who do you think had higher name recognition? Former BC Premier Dave Barrett or two-year Yukon backbench MP Audrey McLaughlin? As noted previously - who the hell had ever heard of Patrick Brown six months before he won the Ontario PC leadership on the first ballot??? And dare i remind people of Joe Clark winning the PC leadership in 1976 (Joe who?)

If McKay runs, I'm sure he will make a credible showing, but i don't see him as a winner. He might have a regional powerbase in Atlantic Canada - but that is only 9% of the vote. A lot of people probably project qualities onto him because he was the last leader of the PC party before it merged with Reform and he never even got to lead the PCs though a single election. But the fact is, he never distinguished himself in any cabinet portfolio he held and was widely viewed as a bit of "dumb jock". I have not heard him speak French, but I doubt if its any good.

[Hatman 🍁]

You're right about Jack and Audrey. Big caveats being 1989 was a delegated convention (therefore different dynamics) and in 2003, the party was much smaller.

Once you start getting to an electorate of over 100,000, name recognition becomes more important, as your voter base is increasingly less knowledgeable.  I don't think more people knew who Topp was than Mulcair, even by the time the vote happened. And even if people knew who he was, they didn't know as much about him. And even those who did perhaps didn't vote for him because they knew Mulcair had better name recognition to the average voter.

I never said Peter MacKay would win. In fact, I expressly stated that Jason Kenney has the best chance of winning. However, my big criticism has been that people here have underestimated him, because of his perception as a "dumb jock". Of course, Justin Trudeau had that perception as well once upon a time. 

[DL]

There are some key differences between. Trudeau was made leader in a "Hail Mary" gesture (that worked) by a party on its last legs - and he didn't really have any serious competition for the job. Trudeau also had no record (for better or worse). McKay would be running to lead a party that is not facing extinction and where there are other movers and shakers that will want the job. MacKay also isnt a "fresh face" he was first elected 1997 and was in cabinet for 10 years (where he never distinguished himself at all) and is seen as very much a representative of one wing of the party...and the weaker one at that.

IMHO, if McKay ran, he would be like Gerard Kennedy running for the OLP leadership in 2013 - start out with high name recognition and not much else - and quickly eclipsed by other more exciting candidates who don't have as much baggage.

I'm still not convinced Kenney will run at all...he would have to deal with too many awkward questions about his personal life and I'm not sure the CPC sees the road back to power as being led by an 'intensely private bachelor" who claims to be a 49 year old virgin and who is an active member of Opus Dei. His image as being able to attract immigrants to the CPC also took a bad hit when the Tories lost literally every single seat they had in immigrant rich areas in this election.

I do think the CPC leadership contest promises to be extremely dirty and divisive and i shall enjoy eating popcorn watching from the sidelines!

[Hatman 🍁]

I can see Kenney running a Patrick Brown-style campaign. Big difference in personal lives (if we want to bring that up) is that while both are Bachelor's, their sex lives are polar opposites. Or so I've heard.

The media in this country aren't big into delving into politician's personal lives though.

[DL]

The issue isnt the media "prying" its the overall narrative.

CPC members would have to deal with Kenney's overall "weirdness" - I mean seriously, you expect Canadians to elect as PM someone in their 50s who claims to be a virgin and who is a member of weird rightwing Catholic sect whose members wear underwear containing thorns to cut into your thigh as a constant reminder of Christ's suffering on the cross???

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadians have to become aware of that in the first place.