Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[King of Kensington]

I wish I had thought this through more in the campaign because it's so obvious in hindsight: It always bugged me when people talked about the Tories hurting themselves with "the immigrant vote" as if immigrants were all from one ethnic group or something. I kept thinking "why would a Chinese guy in Richmond care about the niqab?".

This was a bigger issue for Red Tories in Oakville than it was for Chinese voters in Agincourt or Richmond BC. 

My guess overall is that the Chinese vote share for the Conservatives is about the same as it was in 2011 (up in Agincourt and Markham-Unionville pickup on the one hand but they lost Vancouver South for example).

[Boston Bread]

The CPC fell back in too many BC ridings for me to think the Chinese vote didn't swing from the Conservatives. They gained in 2 Chinese heavy ridings in Ontario. But they fell back everywhere in BC. Even the Tory island of Richmond Centre saw a 14 point decrease for the CPC.

[Hatman 🍁]

My guess is that it will be a Kenney-McKay race. Despite his many shortcomings, Peter MacKay is a household name, and that always helps in these things. He will be the "moderate" candidate.

Kenney will likely win though. He'll run a Patrick Brown-style campaign, signing up lots of immigrant supporters.

[King of Kensington]

I think Lisa Raitt could be a strong candidate as well.

If MacKay gets it, would he run in a by-election?  Some Ontario MP would step aside for him?

[DC Al Fine]

I think Lisa Raitt could be a strong candidate as well.

If MacKay gets it, would he run in a by-election?  Some Ontario MP would step aside for him?

He'd pretty much have to. Two plus years is a long time to be out of parliament for an opposition leader. Not that it would be a problem. Surely there's some old guy in caucus who's willing to give up his safe seat.

[DC Al Fine]

The CPC fell back in too many BC ridings for me to think the Chinese vote didn't swing from the Conservatives. They gained in 2 Chinese heavy ridings in Ontario. But they fell back everywhere in BC. Even the Tory island of Richmond Centre saw a 14 point decrease for the CPC.

To clarify, we were arguing against the idea that the Tory vote 'collapsed' with Chinese voters. Chinese voters probably trended Tory this time, but they probably didn't swing Tory either.

[2952-0-0]

But wouldn't MacKay be constantly asked why he quit this year? I can see him calculating that the Conservatives would likely lose in 2015, and barring any serious reason to the contrary, lose again in 2019, clearing the way for a campaign for the next election. He did say he hopes to come back when people want a more PC-style government. And, he's young enough to afford to wait a decade or more.

If he somehow gets it this time, I can already see the Liberal attacks calling him a coward who runs from fights.

[King of Kensington]

The CPC fell back in too many BC ridings for me to think the Chinese vote didn't swing from the Conservatives. They gained in 2 Chinese heavy ridings in Ontario. But they fell back everywhere in BC. Even the Tory island of Richmond Centre saw a 14 point decrease for the CPC.

Yes, you always have to be careful not to use one riding as the be and all and end all for determining how an ethnic group votes.  For instance Thornhill does not = "the Jewish vote."

[King of Kensington]

I wonder what the most Conservative ethnic group in Canada is.  My guess is Dutch Canadians (but good luck measuring the "Dutch vote"). 

[DL]

But wouldn't MacKay be constantly asked why he quit this year? I can see him calculating that the Conservatives would likely lose in 2015, and barring any serious reason to the contrary, lose again in 2019, clearing the way for a campaign for the next election. He did say he hopes to come back when people want a more PC-style government. And, he's young enough to afford to wait a decade or more.

If he somehow gets it this time, I can already see the Liberal attacks calling him a coward who runs from fights.

Ernie Eves resigned his seat at Queens Park in 2001 and then still came back a year later to get the PC leadership in 2002 and let's not forget Stephen Harper's own story - he was first elected to parliament in 1993 and then before he even finished his first term he resigned his seat in a huff and did not run in 1997 and spent the next couple of years plotting his comeback and ran against Stockwell Day

[DL]

I wonder what the most Conservative ethnic group in Canada is.  My guess is Dutch Canadians (but good luck measuring the "Dutch vote"). 

I'm not so sure about that...Peter Stoffer is a Dutch-Canadian! Of course a lot depends on what wave of immigration we are talking about. There are likely some very conservative Dutch reformed church types who came right after WW2 and then more recent immigrants who are more post-modern...and of  course Dutch-Canadians probably assimilate very quickly and end up voting very much like native born Canadians. Its like how Ukrainians who immigrated pre WW1 were often communists, those who came post WW2 were often very rightwing...I seem to remember reading somewhere that the most NDP voting immigrant group were Irish-Canadians!

[2952-0-0]

Ernie Eves resigned his seat at Queens Park in 2001 and then still came back a year later to get the PC leadership in 2002 and let's not forget Stephen Harper's own story - he was first elected to parliament in 1993 and then before he even finished his first term he resigned his seat in a huff and did not run in 1997 and spent the next couple of years plotting his comeback and ran against Stockwell Day

Neither of them declined to run for re-election in what was already obviously a tough fight. For MacKay to chicken out and then immediately waltz back in would create bad optics - worse than Ignatieff being "just visiting". If he has any leadership ambitions he should at least spend the next few years making a name for himself at a foundation.

But, by then, maybe Mark Mulroney will have been convinced to enter politics.

[King of Kensington]

OK, Volga Germans, given their huge concentration in the rural Prairies.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mennonites, maybe?

[DC Al Fine]

I'm still skeptical that he pulls the trigger. Rumour in my EDA was that his wife was upset how little time he was spending with her and baby.

Of course maybe it's not true. Perhaps he quit because he thought the leadership wasn't meant to be and the election gave him a new opening.

[DL]

Mennonites, maybe?

There are different types of Mennonites. A friend of mine is a Mennonite who is from a very liberal sect that are all pacifists and more like Quakers and they are all social gospel types 

[Hatman 🍁]

Mennonites, maybe?

There are different types of Mennonites. A friend of mine is a Mennonite who is from a very liberal sect that are all pacifists and more like Quakers and they are all social gospel types 

This is of course true, but I was reminded of how Conservative they are in Manitoba, especially.

[King of Kensington]

Mennonites, maybe?

Yeah, they're kind of an "ethnic group" (even have several recognizable last names like Epp and Thiessen).  Probably go around 60% Conservative, I would guess (but it's a stab in the dark because I don't know).  I know in the Prairies they've historically been very anti-CCF/NDP.

If we're talking about ethno-religious subgroups - I think Orthodox Jews is the obvious answer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do Mormons count?

[DC Al Fine]

Do Mormons count?

I don't think they hit the "ethno" in ethno-religious. You are right about their politics though. Cardston, AB, is the site of the first Mormon Temple in Canada and voted ~ 90% Tory in 2011.

[King of Kensington]

With the long form census coming back we should be able to have data for Cardston AB available in a few years.

Most Mormons are of English ancestry - Utah has the highest % English ancestry of any US state. English ancestry in the US is most concentrated in rural New England and Utah (white southerners now report "100% American" in the census). 

In Canada, English ancestry incidentally is highest in rural Newfoundland and Vancouver Island (even though they're obviously found everywhere in good numbers except francophone Quebec and Nunavut).  But obviously WASP Canadians aren't a weak group for the Conservatives.

[DC Al Fine]

Even without the long form census issue, Canadian religion stats wouldn't be very good.  For some reason StatsCan put way too many groups into the "Other Christian" category in 2011 that used to have their own categories before. Mormons, Jehovah's Witness, Mennonites, non-denominational Evangelicals, Dutch Calvinists, and vaguely spiritual, unaffiliated Christians all get put in the same category, which makes analysis more difficult.

[DL]

Mennonites, maybe?

Yeah, they're kind of an "ethnic group" (even have several recognizable last names like Epp and Thiessen).  Probably go around 60% Conservative, I would guess (but it's a stab in the dark because I don't know).  I know in the Prairies they've historically been very anti-CCF/NDP.

If we're talking about ethno-religious subgroups - I think Orthodox Jews is the obvious answer.

But apparently the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Outremont votes massively for Tom Mulcair!

[MaxQue]

Mennonites, maybe?

Yeah, they're kind of an "ethnic group" (even have several recognizable last names like Epp and Thiessen).  Probably go around 60% Conservative, I would guess (but it's a stab in the dark because I don't know).  I know in the Prairies they've historically been very anti-CCF/NDP.

If we're talking about ethno-religious subgroups - I think Orthodox Jews is the obvious answer.

But apparently the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Outremont votes massively for Tom Mulcair!

They are a wierd bunch, though. They think it's a sacrilege than Israel was founded before God came back on Earth or something like that.

[King of Kensington]

But apparently the ultra orthodox Jewish community in Outremont votes massively for Tom Mulcair!

I don't know if they did this time (or ever).  He could have won in spite of them.  What percentage of the riding is Hasidic?