Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[RogueBeaver]

Kenney will make his decision by summer's end.

[RogueBeaver]

Trost considering a run.

[SATW]

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/ambrose-emphasizes-women-youth-immigrants-in-speech-to-conservative-convention-1.2920513

Conservatives strike down the idea of allowing Rona Ambrose to run for leadership. Not a surprise, of course, but she is definitely my favorite of the Conservative veterans right now.

MacKay also said a few things about his interest and how he is  still a "recovering politician."

"I have two kids at home that I think need me at this point in their life," MacKay said in an interview with Don Martin, host of CTV News Channel's Power Play. "I'm blessed with a very supportive spouse who's doing the heavy lifting at home, and so those have to be the primary considerations towards any thought of returning to politics."

MacKay said he still considers himself a recovering politician and the seven months since he stepped down from the House of Commons may not have been long enough to think about a return. But he says he's encouraged that delegates at the convention seem interested in having him run.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory convention drops party's opposition to SSM, all leadership hopefuls vote for the plank.

[SATW]

Tory convention drops party's opposition to SSM, all leadership hopefuls vote for the plank.

Nicee.

[DC Al Fine]

Trost considering a run.

I don't know much about him other than that he's in the socon wing of the party. Any idea whether he's running for a future cabinet spot or to be the socon candidate?

Tory convention drops party's opposition to SSM, all leadership hopefuls vote for the plank.

*Sigh* Fait accompli I guess

[MaxQue]

Trost considering a run.

I don't know much about him other than that he's in the socon wing of the party. Any idea whether he's running for a future cabinet spot or to be the socon candidate?

Tory convention drops party's opposition to SSM, all leadership hopefuls vote for the plank.

*Sigh* Fait accompli I guess

Well, Conservative Party, despite all its faillings, know Canada isn't a theocracy and that religious values shouldn't be used for lawmakings, unlike those fossils at the CHP and extremists like Trost.

Trost said he couldn't support any candidate voting for it, but they all did, so he has to run himself, persuaded the whole majority of the party agrees with him. Pure hubris. He'll get a trashing and if by some miracle he wins, I fully expect him to be out after next election, as Conservatives will lose half their seats with someone like him as leader.

[Poirot]

Not sure if he is really considering but Bernard Lord is mentioned in a La Presse story and on Radio-Canada.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201605/28/01-4986057-congres-du-parti-conservateur-le-nom-de-bernard-lord-sur-toutes-les-levres.php

It could be party members mainly from Quebec looking for a perfectly bilingual leader who has the potential to make the party more competitive in Quebec/ New Brunswick. I think he said he was not running for leader after the last election.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier now opposes supply management. Sadly, no one who has a shot at winning will agree with him.

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier now opposes supply management. Sadly, no one who has a shot at winning will agree with him.

I'm torn between a hopeless vote for social conservatism, a hopeless vote against supply management and a hopeless vote for parliamentary reform.

[136or142]

Trost considering a run.

If Trost runs I wonder if his supporters will be called Trostkyites.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier now opposes supply management. Sadly, no one who has a shot at winning will agree with him.

I'm torn between a hopeless vote for social conservatism, a hopeless vote against supply management and a hopeless vote for parliamentary reform.

His own campaign co-chair, Gourde, disagrees. As do Hus and Berthold.

[Boston Bread]

I'd say Bernier is in a much better position than Trost and Chong.

[136or142]

I'd say Bernier is in a much better position than Trost and Chong.

There are a lot of dairy farmers in Bernier's riding. Could we actually have a politician who puts the public/national interest ahead of his constitutuents/his own interests?

[Poirot]

Last year, Bernier as Minister of state for Agriculture was trying to reassure farmer they would protect supply management. He didn't even believe was he was saying.

 Steven Blaney (Bellechasse–Les Etchemins–Lévis) is thinking of leadership bid.

[DC Al Fine]

I'd say Bernier is in a much better position than Trost and Chong.

Sure, but that's almost by default

Trost is taking an unrealistic approach fighting 2005's culture wars instead of 2016's* and Chong has all the marks of a Huntsman candidate that can't convert in real life.

I do wonder how Bernier will do though. The number of actual libertarians in the party is quite small but there is a fairly large group of people out there who aren't purists but thought Harper wasn't free market enough. If he can capture that group, he will have quite a strong showing.

*I mean seriously, there are efforts to block Trinity Western's law school accreditation, and euthanasia for minors is a debate now. Trost would be wasting valuable political capital fighting yesterday's battles.

[RogueBeaver]

DC, I count myself in that group but I won't vote for Bernier.

[RogueBeaver]

Draft Raitt campaign launches. Site was registered 2 days after the election.

[Vosem]

How well would a more pro-free market and Francophone leader do in Canada (especially Quebec)? My natural inclination in this race is to support Bernier but I wonder how much sense that makes from an electoral standpoint.

[RogueBeaver]

Not a lot. As DC said, libertarians are marginal and Bernier himself is a flawed candidate. He wouldn't have appeal here outside of where we already have seats. If you want a more free-market (Blue) candidate but don't like Kenney's social conservatism, then Bernier's your guy.

[Poirot]

The annual Léger poll on people's opinion of a list of politicians in Quebec came out recently and Bernier has high negative opinions.
20% have a good opinion of him, 44% bad opinion, 20% no opinion, 17% don't know him.

So his appeal would probably be limited to traditional target seats for Conservatives, south of Quebec City and Quebec city suburbs.

Deltell is more liked according to the poll. 31% have a good opinion of him, 21% bad, 21% no opinion, 27% don't know him.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of Bernier, he compared supply management to Soviet agriculture and has advocated goldbuggery in the past. Now, Anglo friends, do you see why he isn't taken seriously here?

[MaxQue]

He is widely considered as a village idiot here.

The saga a decade ago where he lost confidential Cabinet documents while dating someone with links to organised crime did him no good, too.

Beauce reelects him in a landslide each time and rest of Quebec is "Oh no, but that's expected, it's backwards Beauce". To Quebec people, Beauce is like the Deep South.

[Hatman 🍁]

So I did end up throwing a leadership question in the last omnibus poll we did. Here are the results:



Despite Ambrose not being a listed option, she still managed to get 4%.

Highlights:
O'Leary is ahead in Alberta; Bernier in Quebec; MacKay everywhere else.
O'Leary leads with people under 45; MacKay with people over 45.

I also included Brad Trost in the poll, but he received less than 1% in support. After Ambrose, the next popular write-in was Brad Wall, but got less than 1% as well.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd like to see a poll without O'Leary and maybe MacKay, just to see where his voters go.