Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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  Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017
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Poll
Question: Will some candidates drop out of the race in order to stop O'Leary from winning?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Maybe
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 18

Author Topic: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017  (Read 101586 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #250 on: June 16, 2016, 10:12:58 AM »

I'd like to see a poll without O'Leary and maybe MacKay, just to see where his voters go.

Maybe next time, I'll include a ranked ballot.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #251 on: June 17, 2016, 05:03:09 PM »

Kenney keeping door open to both arenas, pissed at the warring tribes. Also takes an even subtle shot at Reds than Poilievre did last year.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #252 on: June 19, 2016, 05:30:01 AM »

But Kenney is probably heading through the provincial door, per Radwanski ($$$).
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #253 on: June 20, 2016, 01:59:29 AM »

The Conservative Party of Canada just went alt right


https://www.facebook.com/cpcpcc/photos/a.10150215051769204.329974.5661704203/10154297426314204/?type=3&theater
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #254 on: June 20, 2016, 03:10:53 PM »

Don't see how it's alt right to mock a pm with a trump level iq
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #255 on: June 21, 2016, 05:11:04 PM »

YUGE: Kenney is leaving federal politics and heading for Edmonton, probably to commandeer the PCAA's smoking hulk. Best of luck to him, and hopefully he joins Brown and Pallister.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #256 on: June 21, 2016, 06:05:03 PM »


I'm not in touch with AB politics. Would he cruise to the PC leadership or would he face a fair amount of opposition?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #257 on: June 21, 2016, 06:34:47 PM »

'defeat the socialists'



The virgin MP is adorable.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #258 on: June 21, 2016, 08:08:35 PM »

Flanagan says that's exactly Kenney's plan: commandeer the hulk and merge it with Wildrose.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #259 on: June 21, 2016, 11:08:40 PM »

Kenney quitting federal politics seems to be still all rumors.  I haven't read any confirmation from him or Rona Ambrose.
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Njall
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« Reply #260 on: June 22, 2016, 01:38:42 AM »


I'm not in touch with AB politics. Would he cruise to the PC leadership or would he face a fair amount of opposition?

Speaking only for what I saw at the AGM, and at PC Board of Directors meetings that I've been to since the election, there's VERY little appetite for a merger with the Wildrose.  Keeping in mind that Kenney would be running explicitly as a candidate who would merge the parties, I would say that this would shoot his campaign in the foot right from the beginning.  After all, PC and Wildrose supporters are still at each others' throats more often than not, and tensions from the past 8+ years are far from dissipating.  Kenney's social conservatism will likely turn off some PC voters as well; in an engagement survey (completed by at least 2,000 respondents) that the party sent to members after the election, 73% of respondents agreed that the party is socially progressive (in the sense that social progressivism should appear in the party's principles).  It won't be impossible for him to win, but it certainly won't be the sort of campaign that Prentice faced.

Another thing to consider is that this PC leadership election will be done as a delegated convention, and delegates will effectively have to be members for 45 days before the convention (delegate slates must be finalized 30 days before the convention, and in order to participate in CA delegate selection meetings as voters and delegate candidates, members must have been in the party for at least 14 days).  That is to say, unlike past elections, Kenney wouldn't be able to sign up a bunch of last minute supporters and direct them on where to vote on election day; he will have to have members signed up and strong ground organizations in at least a majority of ridings well in advance of the convention.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #261 on: June 22, 2016, 08:39:40 AM »

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #262 on: June 22, 2016, 12:14:00 PM »

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?
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Njall
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« Reply #263 on: June 22, 2016, 01:27:07 PM »

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?

A plurality would probably go Wildrose (though the exact amount would depend on how "mainstream" the WRP would actually get).  The rest would probably either not vote, at least for the following 1-2 elections, or go to whichever non-NDP and non-WRP alternative looks the best.  I imagine that the Alberta Party would become a favourable option for a fair number of ex-PCs, at least in the cities.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #264 on: June 22, 2016, 06:56:27 PM »

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?

Pretty much what Njall said. Where did the SoCreds go when they folded?
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Njall
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« Reply #265 on: June 23, 2016, 02:38:12 PM »

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?

Pretty much what Njall said. Where did the SoCreds go when they folded?

I think SoCred support slowly bled over to the PCs, but it wasn't an instantaneous process, by any means.  The situation was different compared to today as well, because the PCs and SoCreds collectively took something like 88% of the vote in 1971, and the province has urbanized significantly since then as well. 

The PCs drew support from all of the opposition parties (including practically all of the Liberals' support) in order to win the 1971 election, but even though the SoCreds were decimated in terms of seats, they still came away with 25 seats and over 40% of the vote.  After that, I would say that roughly half of the SoCred vote drifted over to the PCs, but the SoCreds still got just under 20% of the vote in 1975 and 1979.  Post-1979, it would appear that more former SoCred voters would have drifted over, but upstart populist parties (the WCC, most prominently) would have also received support largely from the old SoCred base.  And once the '90s came around, Alberta was really into the Klein era, and Klein likely would have appealed to the old SoCreds more than the PCs of Lougheed's day.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #266 on: June 28, 2016, 03:29:15 PM »

Trost may run as the niche socon candidate.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #267 on: June 28, 2016, 08:02:44 PM »

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #268 on: June 28, 2016, 08:16:22 PM »

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...
He'll gain eventually if no other socon runs. Patrick Brown started at 3% because nobody knew him, but gained quickly because no other socon ran.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #269 on: June 29, 2016, 05:15:41 AM »

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...
He'll gain eventually if no other socon runs. Patrick Brown started at 3% because nobody knew him, but gained quickly because no other socon ran.

True. We'll have to see how the field shakes up. Kenney running would have put a really low ceiling on him, but if his main opponents are Chong, Rempel and Bernier...

I'm interested in how the race will measure the various factions of the right. The set of candidates didn't really allow for it when Harper won and the parties were disunited before that. We really haven't had a race like this since Mulroney won.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #270 on: June 29, 2016, 05:44:57 AM »

Scheer will decide over the summer.

DC: Not even then, because there were no Blue candidates back then. Lost their best chance with O'Sullivan IMO.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #271 on: June 29, 2016, 10:09:35 AM »

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...
He'll gain eventually if no other socon runs. Patrick Brown started at 3% because nobody knew him, but gained quickly because no other socon ran.

I agree. Polls right now are just based on name recognition. Though I would argue name recognition counts more at the federal level, and Ontario PCs love picking the biggest no name. At least in the last 2 contests.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #272 on: July 04, 2016, 06:26:17 PM »

Kenney making an "important announcement" Wednesday in Calgary.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #273 on: July 05, 2016, 05:39:33 AM »

Kenney is Edmonton-bound to commandeer the hulk as a merger candidate.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #274 on: July 08, 2016, 04:59:28 PM »

Clement will announce Tuesday.
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