Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Pandaguineapig]

LMAO. He'll get parts of the Prairies and that's it. In a GE, a strident, single-issue socon would get results closer to Alliance 2000 than Harper in 2004/15.

I just figured because he is the only so con and the only candidate west of Ontario he would have an opening in the leadership race not in 2019

He'll have to compete with Deepak Obhrai and (possibly) Andrew Scheer for the Western Conservative vote, so his Western roots won't really be an advantage.

I thought obhrai was going to dropout if macCay or Raitt got in?

[RogueBeaver]

O'Toole considering.

[adma]

I see Obhrai less as a proxy for Kenney than as a Con leadership race version of Harinder Takhar in the 2013 Ontario Liberal leadership race, i.e. less as genuine contender than as ethno-bloc rallying point.  (Which kind of dovetails back into Kenney's strengths, too.)

[diptheriadan]

Is O'Leary still considering running?

[136or142]

Is O'Leary still considering running?

I think he said something like that he wouldn't decide until the day of the filing deadline.

[diptheriadan]

Is O'Leary still considering running?

I think he said something like that he wouldn't decide until the day of the filing deadline.

How much like Trump is he?

[DL]

O'Leary has only a superficial resemblance to Trump. He is much more urbane and socially liberal. If I was going to compare him to anyone in recent US politics he would be more like Steve Forbes. O'Leary has very hardline rightwing economic views but they are orthodox rightwing views, he would never bash NAFTA or TPP etc...

The prospective Conservative candidate who is really the most Trump-like would be Doug Ford

[136or142]

O'Leary has only a superficial resemblance to Trump. He is much more urbane and socially liberal. If I was going to compare him to anyone in recent US politics he would be more like Steve Forbes. O'Leary has very hardline rightwing economic views but they are orthodox rightwing views, he would never bash NAFTA or TPP etc...

The prospective Conservative candidate who is really the most Trump-like would be Doug Ford

O'Leary is also a bombastic bully like Trump.

[Vega]

O'Leary has only a superficial resemblance to Trump. He is much more urbane and socially liberal. If I was going to compare him to anyone in recent US politics he would be more like Steve Forbes. O'Leary has very hardline rightwing economic views but they are orthodox rightwing views, he would never bash NAFTA or TPP etc...

The prospective Conservative candidate who is really the most Trump-like would be Doug Ford

These are fresh comparisons that are absolutely right.

It seems though anyway that O'Leary is leaning against a run.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary won't run, but there is definitely a sizable chunk of Conservatives who would vote for someone like him... someone who will "stick it to those pinko elitists".

[RogueBeaver]

Trost is in.

[136or142]

Trost is in.

Why is he in Mongolia at the same time as his campaign team announces he's running?

[RogueBeaver]

Trost has company. Hopefully Raitt saves us from this clown car.

[RogueBeaver]

Raitt will announce next month.

[136or142]

Small article in the Vancouver Sun, defeated Vancouver area M.P Andrew Saxton is considering a run as well, mainly to be a B.C candidate.  Saxton is something of a social moderate, I think, though his fellow North Shore area Conservative M.P John Weston (who also was defeated) was a higher profile social moderate.

Are all of these lesser names coming forward a belief from them that this is a wide open race, which would mean that they don't think that Peter MacKay is going to run?

[Hatman 🍁]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

[RogueBeaver]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

[136or142]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

[136or142]

Andrew Coyne wrote a decent article yesterday on the 'ideas primary' in the Conservative leadership race.  He believes Bernier is winning that, though that's obviously because he agrees with Bernier.

That said, and for what it's worth I do too.  I never understood this idea of those on the left who somehow believe that businesses that are owned by Canadians will be more loyal to Canada or to Canadian consumers. The sole loyalty of business people is to the bottom line, and the only way to ensure they behave responsibly is through competition.  So, opening up all Canadian markets to foreign competition is the way to make sure that Canadian owned businesses act in the best interests of Canadians.

[MaxQue]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Will be hilarious to see the ROC pundits giving him "strange new respect" get so many eggs on their face.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't count anyone out yet. It's early days and a lot could happen, especially with the lack of front runner or super organized campaigns.

[136or142]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

[RogueBeaver]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

[136or142]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

Then how do you explain the poll that had him at 10% nationally?