Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[RogueBeaver]

The same way I explain leadership polls that showed Christine Elliott and Gerard Kennedy winning.

[136or142]

The same way I explain leadership polls that showed Christine Elliott and Gerard Kennedy winning.

If you're referring to name recognition that doesn't make sense.  Because you said they know Bernier and they don't like him.

[DC Al Fine]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

Then how do you explain the poll that had him at 10% nationally?

Name recognition, Anglo libertarians/free marketeers.

That said, and for what it's worth I do to.  I never understood this idea of those on the left who somehow believe that businesses that are owned by Canadians will be more loyal to Canada or to Canadian consumers. The sole loyalty of business people is to the bottom line, and the only way to ensure they behave responsibly is through competition.  So, opening up all Canadian markets to foreign competition is the way to make sure that Canadian owned businesses act in the best interests of Canadians.

Agreed. This is one of my pet peeves. I chalk it up (mostly) to reflexive anti-Americanism.

[RogueBeaver]

I don't put much stock in leadership polls is my point. I'm getting only a bit more spam from him than I am from Leitch.

DC: Not this free-marketeer.

[DC Al Fine]

I don't put much stock in leadership polls is my point. I'm getting only a bit more spam from him than I am from Leitch.

I was wondering about why I was getting so many fundraising appeals from Leitch. Glad I'm not the only one.

[Hatman 🍁]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

[MaxQue]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

Who will win then? No one has an organized super campaign.

Peter MacKay will probably win if he runs.  Otherwise I'd guess there are 4 early fairly equal front runners: Lisa Raitt, Tony Clement, Kellie Leitch and Maxime Bernier.

Maxime Bernier is not winning. He is a laughing stock in the province that know him.

Is he? He just got reelected in his Beauce riding with nearly 60% of the vote, and the latest poll of Conservative supporters had him at 10% nationally and I presume most of that came from Quebecers.

He may be 'laughing stock' among non Conservatives in Quebec, but he seems to be very well liked by Quebec conservatives.

You're wrong. He's not popular at all outside the Beauce. His economic proposals interest me but I have zero interest in putting anywhere near first preference.

Then how do you explain the poll that had him at 10% nationally?

People only knowing his repute as a free-marketer and people saying "oh, that's a French name, we'll win Quebec in a landslide with him".

[adma]

As a "winner", he'd be more of a Canadian Conservative Corbyn in whatever regard.

[136or142]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.

Yes, he is polling at around 30% in Quebec. Outside of Quebec he's in single digits.

Interestingly, he is doing well with younger voters, perhaps because young Tories tend to be Libertarian? He's also doing much better among men than women for probably the same reason.

[136or142]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see.  

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.

Yes, he is polling at around 30% in Quebec. Outside of Quebec he's in single digits.

Interestingly, he is doing well with younger voters, perhaps because young Tories tend to be Libertarian? He's also doing much better among men than women for probably the same reason.

Thanks.  Not to make too much out of this, but I'd say this more or less backs up my initial point: Bernier has a good deal of backing from Quebec Conservatives and he's liked in Quebec by people other than those who live in his riding.

I would say that as other candidates enter the race or the candidates already in the race get better known, Bernier's support could obviously decline in Quebec (especially maybe if another Quebecer like Steven Blaney gets in the race) however, similarly, as Bernier gets better known outside of Quebec, his support level in the rest of Canada would likely increase.

Either way, at this point I think Bernier has to be considered one of the front-runners with Raitt, Clement and Leitch if MacKay doesn't run.

[DL]

Keep in mind that the CPC membership is now the hardcore - these people are very very rightwing and outside of Quebec, they tend to hate "the French" - I suspect that there is a glass ceiling for any CPC leadership candidate such as Bernier who is French simply because the CPC membership is so francophobic and would never want to be led by a "Frenchman" (sic.) 

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

I can't say whether or not most Tories are anti-French, but they have expanded their membership since the Reform Party days.

[adma]

I would say that as other candidates enter the race or the candidates already in the race get better known, Bernier's support could obviously decline in Quebec (especially maybe if another Quebecer like Steven Blaney gets in the race)

I see Deltell as more "leadership-like" than Blaney--though didn't Deltell rule himself out already?

[RogueBeaver]

MacKay interview with Solomon. He doesn't sound terribly interested, IMO. Besides, where would he run? He can't be outside the House for 2+ years or carpetbag in ON and get Meighen'd given our ON numbers right now.

[DC Al Fine]

MacKay interview with Solomon. He doesn't sound terribly interested, IMO. Besides, where would he run? He can't be outside the House for 2+ years or carpetbag in ON and get Meighen'd given our ON numbers right now.

They couldn't find an old guy in a rural Prairie seat who wants to retire?

[136or142]

MacKay interview with Solomon. He doesn't sound terribly interested, IMO. Besides, where would he run? He can't be outside the House for 2+ years or carpetbag in ON and get Meighen'd given our ON numbers right now.

He wouldn't be carpbetbagging.  He now lives in the Toronto area in order to work at the law firm that hired him.There are some relatively safe exurban ridings in Simcoe he would likely easily win.  Thornhill though would be his best bet, I would think.

2015
Peter Kent, Conservative 31,911
Nancy Coldham, Liberal 18,395

I'm sure Netanyahu could coincidentally time a visit to the riding just to ensure a MacKay victory. If that's proves to be a logistical problem he could always say that the Liberal Government is anti-Israel or anti-Jewish, which is the same thing to him.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

They use the system for the leadership with 100 points per riding, though, don't they?

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

They use the system for the leadership with 100 points per riding, though, don't they?

Oh yeah. So, if the Tory membership in Quebec (what little there is) loves Bernier, that's a butt-load of points right there. 

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

They use the system for the leadership with 100 points per riding, though, don't they?

Oh yeah. So, if the Tory membership in Quebec (what little there is) loves Bernier, that's a butt-load of points right there. 

Relevant



Looks like Belinda got a lot less than her 35% score would indicate.

[136or142]

the CEO of Peterson Capital, Rick Peterson is looking at joining the race.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/vancouver-venture-capitalist-rick-peterson-considers-joining-conservative-leadership-race

Rick Peterson ran for the leadership of the B.C Conservative Party (no affiliation) in 2014 losing to Dan Brooks roughly 60-40%

[RogueBeaver]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

I saw that Pierre Lemieux announced, would I be correct in assuming he won't be a major player in the election?

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

I saw that Pierre Lemieux announced, would I be correct in assuming he won't be a major player in the election?

Haha. Did he really? Jesus...

Lemieux is a bit of scumbag. Happy to see him go. Funny to see him in the race.

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

I saw that Pierre Lemieux announced, would I be correct in assuming he won't be a major player in the election?

Haha. Did he really? Jesus...

Lemieux is a bit of scumbag. Happy to see him go. Funny to see him in the race.

I saw some articles that he announced, though he hasn't put in his deposit yet