Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DL]

I have heard some rumours that Raitt will not run largely because she is embroiled in a very nasty custody dispute with her ex-husband that is going to court

[136or142]

The latest National Post article on the Conservative Leadership race by Jason Fekete labeled Kellie Leitch as a 'Red Tory.'

[DL]

The latest National Post article on the Conservative Leadership race by Jason Fekete labeled Kellie Leitch as a 'Red Tory.'

Well now we know that Fekete is a total know-nothing!!!

[King of Kensington]

Some pundits ludicrously believe that anyone with a PC rather than Reform/Alliance background = "Red Tory."

[DL]

Some pundits ludicrously believe that anyone with a PC rather than Reform/Alliance background = "Red Tory."

In other words Mike Harris was a "red Tory" - who knew??

[DC Al Fine]

There's a perfectly plausible alternative explanation for Leitch: She's a politician shifting like a weathervane in an effort to carve out a niche for herself.

[RogueBeaver]

Scheer is in, Raitt sounds in.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

At this moment who do you think will win. I would be surprised if either O'Leary, or MacKay run,although MacKay is probably one of the favorites if he does run. The way I see it now it is probably a three way race with Bernier, Clement, and Raitt (assuming she runs) as the favorites. While Leitch probably was in the mix at one point, her chances have been hurt significantly by recent comments on Immigration. Chong and Obhrai are probably too moderate to win the leadership, while Lemieux,  Snow, Scheer and Tost are too socially conservative to win.Right now  Raitt probably wins, with Bernier in second and Clement in third.

[adma]

Right now  Raitt probably wins, with Bernier in second and Clement in third.

IMO Raitt's too much of a federal Christine Elliott to win.

[136or142]

At this moment who do you think will win. I would be surprised if either O'Leary, or MacKay run,although MacKay is probably one of the favorites if he does run. The way I see it now it is probably a three way race with Bernier, Clement, and Raitt (assuming she runs) as the favorites. While Leitch probably was in the mix at one point, her chances have been hurt significantly by recent comments on Immigration. Chong and Obhrai are probably to moderate to win the leadership, while Lemieux,  Snow, Scheer and Tost are too socially conservative to win.Right now  Raitt probably wins, with Bernier in second and Clement in third.

Scheer is socially conservative but it remains to be seen how socially conservative he runs, he also says that he plans to run a broad based issues campaign and not focus just on social issues.  I'd place him with your other three front-runners.

[DC Al Fine]

At this moment who do you think will win. I would be surprised if either O'Leary, or MacKay run,although MacKay is probably one of the favorites if he does run. The way I see it now it is probably a three way race with Bernier, Clement, and Raitt (assuming she runs) as the favorites. While Leitch probably was in the mix at one point, her chances have been hurt significantly by recent comments on Immigration. Chong and Obhrai are probably to moderate to win the leadership, while Lemieux,  Snow, Scheer and Tost are too socially conservative to win.Right now  Raitt probably wins, with Bernier in second and Clement in third.

Scheer is socially conservative but it remains to be seen how socially conservative he runs, he also says that he plans to run a broad based issues campaign and not focus just on social issues.  I'd place him with your other three front-runners.

Agreed. The main of affect of this is that he'll take all of Trost and Lemieux's breathing room. I could see Trost pulling a semi-decent result if the field was almost all people who wanted to 'move past' social issues. Scheer will run as a compromise between social conservatism and electability, and which should limit the other socons quite a bit.

[DL]

How do you make that compromise? Either you are a social conservative who wants to rescind equal marriage and declare all same sex marriages to be annulled and you want to restrict abortion rights...or you can be electable. You can't be both.

I suspect that the SoCon kooks in the Tory party like Charles McVety feel they got burned when they all signed up to back Patrick Brown for the Ontario PC leadership only to watch him march in gay pride parades and flip flop in sex education. They will demand very firm commitments in exchange for their support and any attempt to be all things to all people by someone like Scheer will flop.

[DC Al Fine]

How do you make that compromise? Either you are a social conservative who wants to rescind equal marriage and declare all same sex marriages to be annulled and you want to restrict abortion rights...or you can be electable. You can't be both.

a) Politics exists on a continium and
b)The religious right has more than two issues. The Harper government even pursued some of them.

[DL]

Really? what issues does the religious right have in Canada apart from the following?

a. hatred of gays and lesbians and belief that they must be stripped of their rights
b. wanting to ban abortion rights and restrict contraception - likely with jail terms for women who choose to terminate pregnancy
c. a total ban on euthanasia so they can make sure that the terminally ill suffer in the most excruciating pain possible. (I've never understood why these so-called Christians seem to enjoy seeing people suffer)

I'm scratching my head to think of what else the the s-called religious right would want that are in areas of federal jurisdiction...maybe they want to ban all non-Christian immigration to Canada? Maybe they want to erect crucifixes in all public buildings?...maybe they want to find some way to force all schools to teach creationism instead of evolution?

Am I missing anything?

[Hatman 🍁]

How do you make that compromise? Either you are a social conservative who wants to rescind equal marriage and declare all same sex marriages to be annulled and you want to restrict abortion rights...or you can be electable. You can't be both.

Patrick Brown seems to be doing a good job of this so far. Basically, tell the socons you'll do one thing and tell the moderates you won't.

[DC Al Fine]

Really? what issues does the religious right have in Canada apart from the following?

a. hatred of gays and lesbians and belief that they must be stripped of their rights
b. wanting to ban abortion rights and restrict contraception - likely with jail terms for women who choose to terminate pregnancy
c. a total ban on euthanasia so they can make sure that the terminally ill suffer in the most excruciating pain possible. (I've never understood why these so-called Christians seem to enjoy seeing people suffer)

I'm scratching my head to think of what else the the s-called religious right would want that are in areas of federal jurisdiction...maybe they want to ban all non-Christian immigration to Canada? Maybe they want to erect crucifixes in all public buildings?...maybe they want to find some way to force all schools to teach creationism instead of evolution?

Am I missing anything?

You forgot the part where we kick puppies.

[136or142]

Really? what issues does the religious right have in Canada apart from the following?

a. hatred of gays and lesbians and belief that they must be stripped of their rights
b. wanting to ban abortion rights and restrict contraception - likely with jail terms for women who choose to terminate pregnancy
c. a total ban on euthanasia so they can make sure that the terminally ill suffer in the most excruciating pain possible. (I've never understood why these so-called Christians seem to enjoy seeing people suffer)

I'm scratching my head to think of what else the the s-called religious right would want that are in areas of federal jurisdiction...maybe they want to ban all non-Christian immigration to Canada? Maybe they want to erect crucifixes in all public buildings?...maybe they want to find some way to force all schools to teach creationism instead of evolution?

Am I missing anything?

This was some evangelist on a PBS program about American voters called 'The New Deciders' but I think it fits here:

"There are 4 things I want (lower taxes is one, boiler plate stuff)
1.Traditional marriage
2.No abortion
3.limited government

[RogueBeaver]

As expected, MacKay won't run.

[DL]

So I guess that means Kevin O'Leary is unstoppable as the next CPC leader!

[136or142]

Candice Bergen (nee Hoeppner) has replaced Andrew Scheer as Conservative House Leader.  I think it can be assumed that Bergen is considering running for the leadership.

On the other hand though, Rona Ambrose was on the CBC Program The House today and said that 'a dozen in our caucus are considering running for  the leadership.'

At most, I can only count 10 and at at least one of them seems to be pretty iffy: Steven Blaney.

[DC Al Fine]

Who knows. She might know more than we do, or she might be speaking off the cuff in an interview.

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier promises to eliminate capital gains tax.

[RogueBeaver]

Bernier promises to eliminate capital gains tax.

Brison suggested that 5 years ago.

[136or142]

The long national nightmare for the Conservatives is just starting:  Chris Alexander is going to run for leader.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/paulmcleod/chris-alexander-says-he-will-enter-uninspiring-conservative?bftwcanada&utm_term=.utVrbV2JR#.lkrOb4J91

[Poirot]

Steven Blaney left his opposition critic role so it seems he is ready to run for leadership.

I've read Lisa Raitt's husband has been diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. Don't know if that makes you want to spend more time with your loved one than spending all your time in politics, running for party leadership or being party leader.