Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DL]

She has positioned herself as the alt-right candidate, that is why she is dangerous. That is if Canada has enough crazies to get on board her campaign. I'm hoping not, but then again I didn't think Trump could beat Clinton!

Trying to appeal to xenophobia is nothing new at all in Canadian politics. One of the major issues that caused the Reform party to be created was impatience with the Mulroney government's relatively pro-immigration policies - and in 1988 and 1993 Manning's biggest applause line was always when he promised to bar any RCMP officers from wearing turbans....and in 1997 the Reform party ran ads attacking Quebec that were widely seen as racist.

The thing that helps insulate Canada from this sort of "alt-right" style populism is our linguistic duality - for the most part anyone xenophobic demagogues that rise up in English Canada tend to also be anti-French bigots and therefore come up against a firewall in Quebec. Similarly anyone xenophobic and demagogic that pops up in Quebec tends to be a "pur et dur" sovereignist who hates the English!

In the case of Kellie Leitch not only is she totally devoid of any charisma and talks in a flat, dull monotone...she also apparently speaks no French whatsoever...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Even excluding Quebec, a Trump-like candidate is unlikely to get far simply because there is no gap between Clinton style globalist liberals and Sanders style populist progressives. The former camp generally goes Liberal and the latter tends to go for the NDP, and stronger unions in Canada make the "disaffected working class white voter" more likely to go for the NDP than the Tories. Furthermore, the Tories are somewhat dependent on conservative-leaning immigrants (esp. Chinese, Indians) in a lot of cities and suburbs, so unlike the Republicans they'd be throwing away a lot of support that they already have.

The only real "opening" a Trump strategy would have would be if the NDP's hard-left progressives and environmentalists took complete control and screwed over the unions, and even then it would probably require the economy to collapse dramatically too. The cities and Quebec would have to face some pretty severe vote splitting from the Liberals/NDP/PQ and the Tories would need to break all-time margins in rural areas, especially in the east and north (where the Liberals and NDP are quite solid, respectively).

In short, a Trump style candidate in Canada would require literally everything to fall in their favour and for their opponents to be completely inept to even come close to succeeding.

[King of Kensington]

Trying to appeal to xenophobia is nothing new at all in Canadian politics. One of the major issues that caused the Reform party to be created was impatience with the Mulroney government's relatively pro-immigration policies - and in 1988 and 1993 Manning's biggest applause line was always when he promised to bar any RCMP officers from wearing turbans....and in 1997 the Reform party ran ads attacking Quebec that were widely seen as racist.

In the GTA, the best ridings for Reform were in Brampton, which was more white working class back then but with a growing Sikh population.   Today of course all parties try to appeal to the South Asian vote and run South Asian candidates. 

[King of Kensington]

I can't see any Canadian conservative running an economic populist campaign against NAFTA and calling for closer relations with Putin.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Leary is meeting with potential staffers.

[2952-0-0]

A more likely scenario involves a Sanders-style outsider from the left who seizes control of the NDP through his/her loyal supporters. He/she denounces the Liberals as corporatist sellouts who occasionally throw a bone on social issues and the hapless Conservatives as useful idiots of Trumpist Republicans. The NDP paints all social issues as distractions from bread and butter issues, stealing votes from the other two parties.

Add in a Liberal government which has become unpopular due to corruption scandals, fatigue, or anything else, another recession/period of stagnation, *and* a Conservative party which is still reeling from the Harper years and which reeks of Republican odours, and the NDP could well surge to power.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch is now proposing abolishing 95% of the CBC.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh wow.

[DL]

I think Leitch's strategy is very simple. She is totally dull, has no personality, no charisma and horrifically bad retail political skills...therefore her strategy is to take the spotlight of her personal character (or lack thereof) and instead draw attention by lobbing a bunch of controversial hot button policy stances...but there is still no getting away from the fact that she is about as exciting as a mashed potato sandwich

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, due to the crowded field, anyone who sets themselves apart from the rest will have an advantage. That's how Trump did it. I would not be surprised if Leitch leads on the first ballot, even if it's just 20%.

[2952-0-0]

Unfortunately for her, the leadership race isn't a winner-take-all system like the Republican primaries.

[Hatman 🍁]

Unfortunately for her, the leadership race isn't a winner-take-all system like the Republican primaries.

Right; I guess who ever comes in 2nd on the first ballot will probably win the race.

[DC Al Fine]

I've received three separate emails from Tory leadership candidates, using Trudeau's farcical statement on Castro to drum up funds.

EDIT: From Trost, Leitch, and Raitt if anyone is interested.

[DL]

It's odd that during the 9 years the CPC was in power we never heard a peep from them criticizing Castro. Inst ad they increases trade and boasted about the role they played in getting the US to lift sanctions. How do you spell hypocrite

[adma]

It's odd that during the 9 years the CPC was in power we never heard a peep from them criticizing Castro. Inst ad they increases trade and boasted about the role they played in getting the US to lift sanctions. How do you spell hypocrite

Probably more of an opportunistic foot-in-the-door gesture on the Cons' part, i.e. preparing for the "inevitable" post-Castro democratization...

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't recall any outrage when the King of Saudi Arabia died. What will happen when the next Chinese Premier dies?

Castro was a dictator yes, but let's not pretend this is any more than vilifying a leftist bogeyman who just so happened to not be our best friend.

[136or142]

Rick Peterson and Pierre Lemieux have officially entered the race.  So, now there are 14.

[136or142]

Adrienne Snow no longer considering running as of about one month ago,

http://ipolitics.ca/2016/11/04/the-week-that-was-in-the-cpc-leadership-race-3/

Prominent Montreal businessman Daniel Fournier may or may not have considered running 3 weeks ago but there has been no mention since then.

So, just like with Donald Trump in the U.S, Kevin O'Leary positions himself to be the last person to get into the race.

[RogueBeaver]

Leitch wants to legalize mace.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

[136or142]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

Do you think Kevin O'Leary will run for the Conservative leadership or not?

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

Do you think Kevin O'Leary will run for the Conservative leadership or not?

No. Anyways, he is just so loathsome to me that I couldn't even ironically support him.

[DC Al Fine]

Damn. I so want to ironically support the Kellie Leitch campaign, but I still feel gross about doing that for Trump.

Good. I don't recall you doing it, but it was effing annoying when Lief did it.

[2952-0-0]

Either the day after the CPC leadership election, or the day after the 2019 election, we'll look back at Leitch's promise to bring Trump's "exciting" message to Canada as the move that killed her.

Now she's irrevocably tied herself to something she has zero control over. The Liberals won't have to insinuate about Leitch's scary agenda when she foolishly admitted it, and could immediately tie her to every disaster of the Trump Administration. And all the progressives who voted Liberal last year and who would be disillusioned, will be compelled to vote Liberal again.

As for electoral reform, methinks the Liberals will fudge a compromise where a referendum on reform will take place simultaneously with the next federal election, both to reduce overhead costs and to guarantee high enough turnout to enshrine public legitimacy of any subsequent reform.

[136or142]

I think Kevin O'Leary will run.  He may be deliberately waiting until the debate process is over before getting in (or, if the final debates are after the final date to get in, he may be minimizing the number of debates he has to take part in.)

He's reportedly talking to all sorts of people who have been involved in campaigns before, and in the right wing media, he's already being discussed as, just like Trump, a guy who supposedly either 'tells it like it is' or, at least, 'says what's on his mind.'

I don't believe he speaks French, but the Conservative Party has no rule in place that mandates bilingual leadership candidates and I doubt very much that either he or his putative supporters care about his French.