Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[DL]

About 25 percent of the vote in the Cpc leadership contest will be cast by quebecers. The proportion of their votes that will go to unilingual anglophones like Raitt, Leitch or O'Leary etc... will be zero making it very difficult for any of them to win

[Hatman 🍁]

As for electoral reform, methinks the Liberals will fudge a compromise where a referendum on reform will take place simultaneously with the next federal election, both to reduce overhead costs and to guarantee high enough turnout to enshrine public legitimacy of any subsequent reform.

If they tie a referendum to the next general election, the chances of electoral reform passing are quite low as well. So, the Liberals may not hate that option too much.

[136or142]

About 25 percent of the vote in the Cpc leadership contest will be cast by quebecers. The proportion of their votes that will go to unilingual anglophones like Raitt, Leitch or O'Leary etc... will be zero making it very difficult for any of them to win

I didn't predict that he'd win, just that he'd run. However, if there is a ground swell of support for him in the Conservative Party, just as there was for Trump in the U.S, I think it might be hard to stop him from winning the leadership.

[136or142]

About 25 percent of the vote in the Cpc leadership contest will be cast by quebecers. The proportion of their votes that will go to unilingual anglophones like Raitt, Leitch or O'Leary etc... will be zero making it very difficult for any of them to win

Andrew Scheer was supposed to be fluent in French and I thought the same way written here about Michael Chong, yet according to the viewers of the debate, they were both barely passable and they were two of the best non Quebecers.

I think I read that Andrew Saxton was the best non Quebecer in French.

Am I missing any?  Other than Steven Blaney and Maxime Bernier can any of them actually hold a conversation in French (other than Andrew Saxton)?

Michael den Tandt:
https://twitter.com/mdentandt/status/806605407527587840

Harper's French is far better than any of the Anglos in this ldrshp race, except for Alexander.

[DL]

Unilingual Anglo pundits have an annoying habit of hearing someone say "merci" and "bonjour" and then pronouncing that person "fluently bilingual"

[136or142]

Unilingual Anglo pundits have an annoying habit of hearing someone say "merci" and "bonjour" and then pronouncing that person "fluently bilingual"

I'm very surprised that people who I regard as serious and intelligent like Lisa Raitt entered this contest knowing that they couldn't meet one of the basic requirements.

I believe I read that Andrew Scheer was supposed to be 'fluently bilingual.'

This Conservative leadership race is beginning to turn into a joke in my opinion.

[warandwar]

OMG, Trost and Raitt's French...

[RogueBeaver]

There'll be a translator on stage after a generation-long absence. Even Patrick Brown's accent makes me cringe a bit, so I haven't inflicted this debate on my ears yet. If I were Justin I'd crack a couple of good jokes/puns at their expense and watch them stare emptily back.

[MaxQue]

No translators. If the Conservative leader isn't able to debate in French, he shouldn't be invited to French debates.

[RogueBeaver]

Because this freak show wasn't crazy enough.

[2952-0-0]

Because this freak show wasn't crazy enough.

What an utter douchebag.

[Pandaguineapig]

Question: Would a hypothetical Conservative party leader's failure to speak French or even speaking french with a strong accent,hurt them outside of Quebec/parts of Ontario?

[DC Al Fine]

Question: Would a hypothetical Conservative party leader's failure to speak French or even speaking french with a strong accent,hurt them outside of Quebec/parts of Ontario?

Yes. Enough Anglos expect that the PM be bilingual that the Tories just can't write off Quebec and run someone who doesn't speak French. The base doesn't care, but they need to win the base + ~10% to win a majority.

[DC Al Fine]

To put the bilingual question in perspective: How bad was Harper's French when he became Alliance leader compared to the current crop of candidates? My understanding is that he improved quite a bit over the years. 

[136or142]

To put the bilingual question in perspective: How bad was Harper's French when he became Alliance leader compared to the current crop of candidates? My understanding is that he improved quite a bit over the years. 

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that Harper has been genuinely fluent in French for most of his life.

[RogueBeaver]

I was sorta joking about the translator thing, but it was done in 1993, maybe '97 for Manning. To me a bilingual leader is non-negotiable. That's partially why after this debate I decided to switch to Scheer.

[136or142]

Of course Conservatives (and conservatives) aren't a monolith, but I find it amusing to see the number of them who are praising Kevin O'Leary as 'being a businessman like Donald Trump' who are also praising Brad Wall and saying 'the Conservatives need a leader like Brad Wall.'

Although Brad Wall owned a small tourist resort ranch in his 20s (The Last Stand Adventure Company) and was a self employed business consultant, he was also first elected to the Saskatchewan legislature in 1999 at the age of 34, which kind of makes him a 'career politician' and prior to being elected was a bureaucrat: the City of Swift Current Director of Economic Development.  

Also, while I don't doubt that his business background helped him get the position, I would expect the main reason the people who hired him for that thought he was qualified was because Wall has a Masters of Public Administration.

So, Wall is essentially an educated, public sector employee turned career politician.  Just what many Conservatives (if not conservatives) say they oppose.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm all for more business and military backgrounds in our candidates, personally.

[136or142]

I'm all for more business and military backgrounds in our candidates, personally.

I'm all for judging every candidate on the content of their character and mind and not worrying so much about their background.

There have been successful politicians who had a background in business prior to entering politics and complete duds as well.  I.E Brian Mulroney or Paul Martin vs. Bill Vander Zalm.   (Vander Zalm's government wasn't entirely a disaster, but he personally was a freak show, though having met him on a couple occasions I can attest that he is indeed very charismatic and a fairly nice person.)

I believe if you judge every candidate on those things that diversity in everything else will follow, kind of like an invisible hand.

Of course, this is not to say that their backgrounds should not be considered at all, and it's possible for those in cabinet that having prior management experience is an asset, though, again many ministers who held senior executive/management positions prior to going into cabinet were complete duds and many that were never in management were some of the finest ministers.

I would look at the likes of Brian Tobin who was briefly a journalist before going into politics, but, although some criticize him, he was a very capable Federal Cabinet Minister because he had great communications skills and also was highly creative and had an open mind.  I think he was somewhat less successful as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, but he was well liked by most of his electorate.

It's hard to remember a lot of the names of those who were successful in business prior to going into politics but were disasters in politics because they tend not to stick around very long in politics (I.E Pierre Karl Pelideau) but in terms of more than these isolated examples, I would suggest looking over a number of Brian Mulroney's original 1984 Cabinet Ministers from Quebec.

I remember the one case of an owner of a chain of franchise restaurants or something like that who great things were predicted in his future in politics who was dropped from the Cabinet in less than a year and was out of politics shortly after that.

[DL]

I was sorta joking about the translator thing, but it was done in 1993, maybe '97 for Manning. To me a bilingual leader is non-negotiable. That's partially why after this debate I decided to switch to Scheer.

First of all in 1993 and 1997 when led by the unilingual Manning the Reform party did not even run any candidates in Quebec - they simply ceded the whole province.

Second of all, in 1993 Manning did not actually participate in the French debate. He was allowed to just give a two minute statements in English at the end of the debate with simultaneous translation that was regarded as bizarre and foreign.

Third of all, i don't actually remember how Manning was handled in the French debate in 1997 but i do remember that that was the election where Manning's Reform Party ran some very controversial ads in BC and Alberta that attacked the fact that there were "too many" Quebec politicians leading Canadian parties with pictures shown of Trudeau, Chretien, Charest and Mulroney...these were widely viewed (accurately IMHO) as blatantly racist in Quebec.

Fourth of all, the last Tory leader who spoke no French at all was John Diefenbaker...but that was back in the early 60s in an era when Quebecers were more passively accepting of being a "conquered people" and were willing to accept having a PM who could not communicate with them. That was also in an era before there were any debates between party leaders.

[136or142]

Third of all, i don't actually remember how Manning was handled in the French debate in 1997 but i do remember that that was the election where Manning's Reform Party ran some very controversial ads in BC and Alberta that attacked the fact that there were "too many" Quebec politicians leading Canadian parties with pictures shown of Trudeau, Chretien, Charest and Mulroney...these were widely viewed (accurately IMHO) as blatantly racist in Quebec.

That was the 'not just Quebec politicians' ad that was retold as the 'no Quebec politicians ad' (or no more Quebec politician ad) because it ended by putting an 'X' over the pictures of their faces.

That ad was the work of Rick Anderson which is why on the rare occasions I see him on television I still immediately change the channel.  He's a bright person and he seems to be decent on some other things, but he's always an asshole to me.

[Pandaguineapig]

I was just curious since O'Leary speaks no French and many of the current candidates obviously just started learning the language. I would figure a leader who couldn't speak French would cede all of Quebec and most of Ontario while western Canada wouldn't care, much like the reform or alliance in the 1990s

[DL]

Its worth noting that there is a four month lag between when the Conservatives pick their leader and when the NDP pick theirs. Both parties have prospective candidates for the leadership with varying degrees of bilingual ability.

Scenario A: Let's say the Tories pick a unilingual anglo as leader such as O'Leary or Leitch or Raitt...or one of the others who speaks some French but its very laboured. Does that cause the NDP to take the attitude of "well if the Tories can have a leader who speaks no French, maybe we can also get away with a leader whose French is not that good (i.e. Angus)? OR does the NDP take the attitude of "by picking a leader who speaks no French, the Tories are essentially vacating Quebec and that gives the NDP the chance to be the only viable alternative to Trudeau in 2019 - so maybe we should pick someone like Guy Caron as leader who is a francophone Quebecer"

Scenario B: What if the Tories pick a Quebecer such as Bernier (or Blaney) as leader? Does the NDP then figure "we can't be the only party without a leader who speaks perfect French o we better go for Guy Caron" OR does the NDP take the more "realpolitik" view that both the Liberals and the Tories are led by Quebecers and on top of that the new Tory leader speaks English with a heavy French accent and is likely to be a hard sell in English Canada. maybe the NDP can get do well in the rest of canada by being the only party led by an anglophone who is not from Quebec

[Linus Van Pelt]

i don't actually remember how Manning was handled in the French debate in 1997

He had an interpreter.

[RogueBeaver]

O'Leary is forming an exploratory committee that will be headed by LeBreton.